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I'll say this, if Russia does lose this war, it will be treated like Germany after the World Wars. It will be forced to pay all of Ukraine's war debt, to completely rebuild Ukraine, and to pay reparations to survivors. That being the case, the longer the war continues, the more Russia will have to pay.
Even if Russia does win, it will inherit a completely destroyed Ukraine that has to be rebuilt. The United States did a wonderful job of pushing Russia into a lose-lose situation. The longer the war continues, the more Russia loses.
From America's perspective, the ideal outcome would be for Ukraine to be completely destroyed in case of a Russian victory, and even better in a Russian defeat. Worst-case scenario for America would be for Russia to take Novorossiya, the Black Sea Coastline, and form a land-bridge into Transnistria. That would leave Ukraine landlocked, partially-destroyed, and economically dependent with almost no natural resources and heavily in debt.
I think that's the plan.
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The second problem for America is that, although this war is hurting Russia, it is helping China and hurting Europe. If Russia doesn't lose the war, the relative strength of "The West" will continue to decline relative to BRICS. Which means a strategy of weakening Russia but allowing them to win won't work. The only winning scenario for America is either a color-revolution in Moscow or total Russian defeat.
Agree.
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Outside of the total collapse of the Russian economy, I don't see regime-change happening. It might have been possible near the beginning, but it seems like most of the anti-war critics have been neutralized. Which means the only path forward is total Russian defeat. And that is why America will send F-16's and everything else they said they wouldn't.
I do. Sort of. if Russia will remain on a shaky ground on the battlefield.
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If Russia has the cash, it can get whatever it needs from China. The problem for Russia has been in rerouting its exports and supply chains. Over the long-term the sanctions will make no difference to Russia and actually hurt Europe.
You don't see them rerouting their exports as it is already?
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For Ukraine, this war is completely materialistic. For Russia it is both materialistic and geostrategic(and existential).
What does it mean?
P.S. Sorry I still didn't respond to you on another thread - can't put my mind to it yet, since I am watching Ukrainian events closely at this point.
Material refers to material gain. Basically, the reason Ukraine refuses to let go of the Donbas and Crimea is material. It is not strategic. It is not spiritual. It is not sentimental. It is not cultural/historical. They just want the land.
Although Russia would also like the land, Russia's motivations are primarily strategic and in a way defensive(existential). Basically, Russia's motives are more complex than Ukraine's motives.
Material refers to material gain. Basically, the reason Ukraine refuses to let go of the Donbas and Crimea is material. It is not strategic. It is not spiritual. It is not sentimental.It is not cultural/historical. They just want the land.
Although Russia would also like the land, Russia's motivations are primarily strategic and in a way defensive(existential). Basically, Russia's motives are more complex than Ukraine's motives.
It's all of those things for Ukrainians, just for different reasons than for the Russians.
One of the biggest complaints of Zelensky regarding the loss of Crimea was that "Russians will never be able to love that land ( Crimea) as we do."
This whole war is VERY spiritual for both, Russians and Ukrainians alike.
In fact for Ukrainians it's kinda an easier endeavor in this sense - they fight "for their motherland."
For Russians it's a more complicated process, because many of them now question "the lack of ideology" promoted in Russia for the last 20 years.
They come to realization that they ( as a nation) can't live any longer without an ideology, without the spiritual ideas to hold on to. Just "money making" society that they lived in after the fall of the USSR is not working for them - I see this conclusion more and more often on Russian military channels.
And this includes the criticism of the current military ads run by the Russian government, that is trying to attract people to serve in the military, using money as motivation.
Zelensky;" Do you love this country or don't you? Here, you love - you are Ukrainian, you do not love - you are a guest, you are a traveler. These people who occupied it will never love Crimea the way we do. This nature is unique, for you this sea is your childhood, for you these rapans are delicious, and when you eat these rapans, I always look for where the sand is, because in childhood it was like that - (sand) on the teeth, "he said.
"It is impossible to instill, this is mine, I know this Crimea. We went to Ai-Petri, Kastropol, Zhukovka. Tents ... you jump from a 14-meter cliff - you surprised your future wife. This is me, I lived there, this is my land, this is not their land, they will not be here, their generations will not grow up here, and their children are not here and they will not die for our land," the head of state added."
But if Crimea is still mostly a "matter of principle" for Ukrainians ( meaning "how dare "moscals" to steal our territory,") Donbass is even more emotionally-charged issue for them, because that's where their "stairway to heaven" started crushing down.
Everything they hate about Russia so much, was concentrated in Donbass; people that stood up to Ukrainian "europeazation" embodied "things Russian" for them.
You can't imagine the epithets, the name calling, the amount of hatred that was poured on that region.
This is the main reason why Zelensky could never enforce the "Minsk agreements," even if he tried to.
I think his life was literally threatened by the Nationalists.
So no, it's not "material" for Ukrainians at all.
For their overlords in the West - yes, it's all material of course.
This whole bloodshed and destruction wouldn't have taken place, if not for his major failure back in 2014.
So he can say whatever he likes now - this won't change a thing already, the disaster keeps on going for Russians and Ukrainians alike, but for Ukrainians more so.
I abhor those of them on top and the ones vehemently promoting and supporting their today's ideology, but I can't not to see their suffering too, the way they have been deceived by their government and used by the West.
In the first video the man is not just crying about his killed friend he just lost, but the way they are treated by their superiors/government, the way they rob them of the last penny, while they are serving in the army.
In the second one - the "voluntary" mobilization continues in Ukraine.
So what it looks like - they were hunting this man for some time, but when they finally caught up with him - he showed the the paper, legally excusing him from the military service. So they beat him up now to relieve their anger and frustration for the "lost" hunt.
These are all South-Easterners, i.e. Russian speaking regions, and all this is happening to them because of the betrayal of the Russian government.
Yet on another hand, speaking of "Putin's options" - I haven't seen any successful offensives yet on behalf of Putin's MoD troops. Missile strikes - yes and plenty, but as far as the troops readiness to advance?
Not all that sure about that one under the current circumstances.
Then there is Wagner of course, but they are not Putin's regular troops you see...
So all this leaves me with a big question mark.
This question mark should be resolved soon. As I said, thousands of Russian troops are just sitting and doing nothing. I assume that they are going to be used at some time.
Also, if the MoD forces were never successful in any offensives, who took all the Ukrainian land so far, and cities like Mariupol?
And if Putin is a moron, why has he been successful in places like Syria and South Ossetia over these years. Why is he so popular among Russians and is still president? Putin may be many things but I don't think that he is stupid. It is likely that he did not act militarily in 2014, other than help prevent Ukrainian forces from entering Donbass and repatriating the people back to Ukraine there, because he wanted to solve the problem diplomatically. The US led him on in this all the while planning on Russia's demise. This just shows Putin's restraint and not being some wacko dictator who attacks all neighboring countries and adds them to his empire.
Last edited by BusinessManIT; 05-19-2023 at 01:40 AM..
The train that derailed near Simferopol blocks the only rail line into Sevastopol. The incident will hamper delivery of necessary supplies and missiles to Russia's fleet.
They will move quickly to repair it, of course, but it will now be repeatedly hit in different places.
In the long run incidents like this will make holding Crimea impossible for Russia. But Ukraine will be unable to enjoy a peaceful, secure Crimea as long as Russia is able to attack.
For many reasons, this is why Russia and the Crimea Bridge must be destroyed. Russia, with a 1,800 billion dollar economy, is able to bully the world as long as they have a military. The world's economy amounts to 95,510 billion dollars.
Russia simply doesn't count and won't be missed.
This question mark should be resolved soon. As I said, thousands of Russian troops are just sitting and doing nothing. I assume that they are going to be used at some time.
Also, if the MoD forces were never successful in any offensives, who took all the Ukrainian land so far, and cities like Mariupol?
And if Putin is a moron, why has he been successful in places like Syria and South Ossetia over these years. Why is he so popular among Russians and is still president? Putin may be many things but I don't think that he is stupid. It is likely that he did not act militarily in 2014, other than help prevent Ukrainian forces from entering Donbass and repatriating the people back to Ukraine there, because he wanted to solve the problem diplomatically. The US led him on in this all the while planning on Russia's demise. This just shows Putin's restraint and not being some wacko dictator who attacks all neighboring countries and adds them to his empire.
Putin absolutely underestimated the absolute stupidity of the US and Europe. The US blew the pipeline in an effort to further subjugate Europe they came out and said so the next day. The West has no plan and no ability to win this war. This goes far enough guess who gets involved? The longer this goes on the worse it will be for the West.
Putin absolutely underestimated the absolute stupidity of the US and Europe. The US blew the pipeline in an effort to further subjugate Europe they came out and said so the next day. The West has no plan and no ability to win this war. This goes far enough guess who gets involved? The longer this goes on the worse it will be for the West.
Putin absolutely underestimated the absolute stupidity of the US and Europe. The US blew the pipeline in an effort to further subjugate Europe they came out and said so the next day. The West has no plan and no ability to win this war. This goes far enough guess who gets involved? The longer this goes on the worse it will be for the West.
Every year on May 18, Ukraine commemorates the memory of the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people. The deportation of Crimea’s indigenous population from their homeland is one of the most striking examples of the crimes of the Soviet regime.
OK, let me ask you a question.
Your country is attacked by a very powerful and ruthless invader. A regional local population sides with that invader without hesitation. Same population that, for HUNDREDS of years was a slave market and slaves supplier to your other sworn enemies.
Fortunately, you manage to win this war and recover lost territories. How nice will YOU be to that local population? Give it all blind eye and pretend, it never happened?
[…]
What should the Ukrainians do to the minority Russian local population that sided with the powerful and ruthless invaders that attacked them? The same population that for HUNDREDS of years oppressed their identity, language and nation?
They manage to win this war and recover their territories, how nice should they be? Should they give it a blind eye and pretend it never happened?
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