Ukraine War

[JohnBoy64]

ISW Update 2/15/23

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...bruary-15-2023

Feb 15, 2023 - Press ISW

Russia’s costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that the UK had not seen the Russian “massing of a single force to punch through in a big offensive” and noted that Russians are now trying to advance in Donbas at a “huge cost.” Wallace estimated that Russia could have committed up to 97 percent of its army to the fight in Ukraine and that its combat effectiveness has decreased by 40 percent due to an “almost First World War level of attrition” that measures Russian advances in meters in human wave attacks. ISW cannot independently confirm Wallace’s estimates, but his observation that Russia lacks sufficient mechanized combat power for a breakthrough aligns with previous ISW assessments that the conventional Russian military must undergo significant reconstitution before regaining the ability to conduct effective maneuver warfare. Wallace’s observations also suggest that Russia does not have untapped combat-ready reserves capable of executing a large-scale offensive, which is also ISW’s assessment.

[GotHereQuickAsICould]

Originally Posted by Ken_N

I believe the Russian MOD is directly recruiting in prisons now. Shoigu is also running his own PMC, “Patriot PMC”.

I have seen POW interviews, where they said they did not sign up when Wagner came to their prison camp, but a few months later the MOD came to their prison camp with a similar deal, 6 months for a pardon, and he signed up because he thought the MOD would be more trustworthy.

Geez. Imagine trying to make that choice of who's the most trustworthy.

Thanks for the info.

[JohnBoy64]

This is a big reason why Ukraine has so much support. Russia is simply a sick country.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...bruary-15-2023

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Yale School of Public Health's Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) released a report on February 14 supporting ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian officials are involved in the systematic reeducation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children in occupied territories.[55] The report states that HRL identified 43 facilities holding at least 6,000 Ukrainian children, the majority focusing on pro-Russian re-education efforts with some forcing children into adoption in Russia.[56] The report states that four of the camps prevented Ukrainian children from returning to Ukraine, supporting ISW assessments that Russian officials are likely trying to relocate children under the guise of recreation schemes.[57] The report details that the Russian federal government is centrally coordinating this effort and that these efforts represent a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention and the Convention on the Rights of the Child.[58] ISW assesses that these efforts are likely part of a wider Russian ethnic cleansing campaign in Ukraine.[59]

[Tedster24]

And now this announcement from the mystical realm......

https://youtu.be/az4dzdS79jU?t=706

[erasure]

Originally Posted by hawk55732

Still waiting.

Oh sorry - you are right, I addressed only one point so far, the one I actually consider the least legitimate on the list of things why Russia didn't have a choice but to attack ( did you notice - I am saying Russia, not "Putin," because since what I am going to list here, directly pertains to the Russian state security on many levels- economy and military including, and therefore removal of Putin from the scene won't change the situation, and whoever will replace him ( barred the government handpicked by Washington,) won't change anything as far as Ukrainian war goes. But this specific point in my view goes directly to Putin and Putin only, when it comes to claim of "protection of ethnic Russians in Donbass.")

So before I go point by point, you need to remember that the whole "Ukraine as anti-Russia project" was designed in Washington by one of Obama's advisers - Zbigniew Brzezinski, and his book "The grand chessboard" attests to it. So he himself was not shy about it - of what he had in mind, being the notable Russophob himself, for lack of better word.

So keeping this in mind, this is what affected Putin's decision, ( after he failed the opportunity to bring Russian army in the South-East right after the coup d'etat in Kiev back in 2014, orchestrated by the Ukrainian Nationalists. ( Minding you, SOME of these Ukrainian Nationalists were actually ethnic Russians, acquiring the "Ukrainian identity.")
So here is what happened as the result of his failure;

1. Once Washington got hold of the new Ukrainian government in Kiev ( V. Nuland wasn't shy either, expressing her opinion to Geoffrey Pyatt ( the ambassador) whom she wanted to see in that government, and whom - not.)

So after this took place, US/IMF placed in Ukrainian government their own people ( identified mostly as "Soros people,") responsible for the economic development, and from that point on, the process of the de-industrialization of Ukraine began ( which the South-East of the country was afraid of to begin with, ) and which in no way benefited the Russian economy.

Obviously - it was the other way around, the development of the agrarian sector of Ukraine that Western corporations had the prime interest in, was now directly competing with Russian agrarian exports even in trade with China. Not to mention that all the industrial ties of the South-East benefiting earlier both economies - Russian and Ukrainian ones, were destroyed in the process.

2. The gas transit issue, which is a whole different story. If before it was up and down kind of thing, after Washington took over the Ukrainian government, it turned into the real "gas war," ( the latest revelation of Seymour Hersh regarding Biden destroying the NS 2, was the latest chapter in this "gas war" between Russia and Ukraine.)
3. Military matters.

a. US bringing the biolabs to the Russian borders.
b. US building the maritime center (and updating the old ports to host American warships miles away from the Russian naval base in Crimea.)
c. Ever-increasing rhetoric regarding the "return of Crimea."

d(1) Nuclear weapons ( here I am not going to contemplate on "how long does it take for the missiles located directly on the Russian border to fly to Moscow vs how long does it take for the missiles located in Kaliningrad to fly wherever."

There were people out there who calculated it all in details, and sure enough Russian military is aware of those details, deeming such potential placement of foreign strategic missiles near Kharkov as unacceptable.

d(2) Knowing the fanatical mindset of the Ukrainian nationalists (with purpose of their life in mind - the "destruction of Russia,") the creation of the "dirty bomb" is actually my personal concern, particularly now that I hear that US already supplied Ukraine with some munition with depleted uranium ( or about to.)


d(3)Training/supply of Ukrainian troops by NATO. ( As Putin has put it quite rightfully - "NATO was making itself comfortable in Ukraine all these years, without actually admitting Ukraine into this organization. What a convenience - to have all the advantages to bring its people/installations to Ukraine, to the very border of Russia, yet at the same time having no obligations to protect Ukraine."


And one more reason of course - protection of the "ethnic Russians" murdered/expelled by thousands in Donbass - the issue I already addressed as the least legitimate on Putin's list in my opinion, and I already explained why.

So these are the reasons why Putin attacked Ukraine, in order to remove the government that effectively turned Ukraine into "anti-Russian project," and my concern now is possible further escalation of this war, that Col. Macgregor mentioned , when speaking about Poland in particular, and the role it plays in this conflict.

So I hope this covers it, unless you want to dwell more on the details.

[GotHereQuickAsICould]

Originally Posted by Tedster24

And now this announcement from the mystical realm......

https://youtu.be/az4dzdS79jU?t=706

What?

[Tedster24]

Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould

What?

Just click on the link. An interview in the 1990's regarding the unrevealed 3rd secret of Fatima. It involves Kiev and Moscow.
I think we know all about that now, in the current climate.

One can also research what happens if the pope makes a visit to Moscow, as he has already said he is prepared to do.

[GotHereQuickAsICould]

Originally Posted by Tedster24

Just click on the link. An interview in the 1990's regarding the unrevealed 3rd secret of Fatima. It involves Kiev and Moscow.
I think we know all about that now, in the current climate.

One can also research what happens if the pope makes a visit to Moscow, as he has already said he is prepared to do.

Why would I click on a link about an interview thirty some years ago regarding the 3rd secret of Fatima?

Don't mean to be rude here, but the purpose of links is to provide further information to back up or expand on what information that is posted.

"Click on this this," adds little to the discussion.

[exm]

Originally Posted by Sprawling_Homeowner

The world knowing the Russian military is joke: the "world" is a vague term, and you cannot and will not define it even if asked.

The Russian Army prior to their invasion of Ukraine was considered one of the top 3rd armies in the world with a well-trained force and formidable military equipment. That concept has all fallen apart. I want to bet you that if Russia didn't have nuclear weapons, Russia would look vastly different. They're basically a 3rd world country with nuclear weapons and a large but terrible army. With all their might they haven't been able to take Ukraine? What a joke. Their biggest price is the potential capture of Bakhmut (The Russian military has not achieved significant operational success in Ukraine since the capture of Severodonetsk in July 2022. Ukrainian forces have liberated almost 18,000 square kilometers of territory since then). Seriuosly? What a joke. Where's the Russian air-force? What a joke. Why are they sending thousands of poorly trained soldiers to their deaths, wave after wave. Is that their strategy? What a joke. Hiring a mercenary force who relies on criminals straight out of prison? What a joke. And please don't tell me that Putin is "restraining" himself. That's another joke.

[erasure]

Originally Posted by Tedster24

And now this announcement from the mystical realm......

https://youtu.be/az4dzdS79jU?t=706

Mhm.

I watched it now.

See, the problem is, is that this a prophesy of the CATHOLIC church. Specifically of the Catholic Church.
But there are other churches out there - namely Eastern Orthodox Church that is even older than Catholic Church, and then there is Lutheran church - the church Of Reformation.

And obviously, THEY would not go by the revelations of the Catholic Church ( now why would they?)


With that being said, since the history of Europe can't be understood without the history of Church there, ( going all the way back to the Great Schism of the Roman Empire, and then extending all the way into the conflict of the Catholic Poland with the Orthodox Russia, with originally Orthodox Ukraine/Belorussia being constantly contested between these two - yes, you can trace this today's conflict in Europe to the church/religious affairs, even though ON THE SURFACE they don't look like ones.