COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (population, pay)

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

Not a knock on your post at all, I also like them. It reminds us where we are and how well our area is doing. That said I had to run out for a few things today and the lack of what is open is actually causing more people to gather. Nice day and people need to get out and there is basically only home depot/lowes/target/grocery and those places are super packed with lines to get in (due to limits).

Those businesses are obviously immune to the virus, so it’s okay.

[ForYourLungsOnly]

Originally Posted by gg

I was under the impression that our region was pretty much unaffected and only 2% of CC beds were being used. Keeping in mind, I am asking a question here and in no way underestimating your personal experience because I think we are privileged to have someone in healthcare bothering to post here. Thanks for that.

I feel our county should reopen with our precautions in place. We are doing great in Allegheny County. It isn't like a ton of grocery store workers and nurses are getting infected at a crazy rate. Why? Taking precautions is key.

I don’t live in Pittsburgh, which is why much of my post references Chicagoland and I said that UPMC should by all means begin re-activating. I do totally believe that Pittsburgh’s hospitals are pretty empty, especially given the large amount of beds the city has in comparison to its population density and overall population. Heck, many hospitals in the hardest hit areas in the nation were only at half capacity at peak. The critical care capacity in these areas are what matter in terms of covid. Not any regular joe can be an ICU doctor or nurse, and critical care beds are a small fraction of a hospital

Must be intelligent about these things, though, having lived through what it looks like on the “bad” end. I’m all for re-opening the economy...intelligently. Would love to see every county in the US be “green” by June 1st.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

Yes and I know not the point but we have no idea on the metrics to reopen our area. We could be at 5 per day, there is no clear information on what our governor is looking for. Areas are low but due to population density (ok so what numbers do you want to see in a more densely populated area), due to testing capacity (ok what are you looking for and how are you allocating testing? I would hope you try to focus needs based on demand), or due to contact tracing ability (ok what is being done to address this?).


Sorry a little frustrated at tone and details provided yesterday. I feel like we are doing well out here. I feel like Yellow makes sense and I feel like there are many things that can resume safely which are not being considered. We are pushing out debt we do not need and I seriously wonder where PA is headed vs other states financially.

I agree with you pretty much here. I've been pretty supportive of Wolf and Levine and the initiatives they've done through this, but I understand the frustration locally after yesterday and was a little frustrated myself after they moved the goal post at the last minute to note density despite us meeting all of their other requirements. But on the other hand, we should feel very fortunate we're living in a metro area that's able to talk about reopening safely right now. Not many other areas are able to say the same still.

I did notice Wolf didn't specifically extend the stay at home order past the 8th for the rest of us technically though, so maybe they also want to establish the rules better and clear questions the rural areas will have before adding us. Fitzgerald seems hopeful about the 15th. I feel like the yellow zone still keeps a lot of places where many people would go still closed that the risk wouldn't be that high.

[Knepper3]

Yeah, I just feel like we are being mistreated. Not the county but as people. I feel like he is pissed people are questioning anything he says and that he feels like he is the parent telling everyone because I said so. There was just no empathy in him Friday. Will you allow Mom and Pop outdoor garden centers to open? His response was only No. then moved on with seemingly disgust in his voice like why would you even ask that? That frustrates me as I see the packed parking lots at Home Depot and Lowes with people loading up with supplies to get ready for spring which is no different, that is why it is asked and he seems out of touch. These mom and pop places will not survive missing the start of growing season.

[erieguy]

^^^^
Bingo

He’s proving to be an absolute clown, and I hope somebody/s stand up to him.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

Yeah, I just feel like we are being mistreated. Not the county but as people. I feel like he is pissed people are questioning anything he says and that he feels like he is the parent telling everyone because I said so. There was just no empathy in him Friday. Will you allow Mom and Pop outdoor garden centers to open? His response was only No. then moved on with seemingly disgust in his voice like why would you even ask that? That frustrates me as I see the packed parking lots at Home Depot and Lowes with people loading up with supplies to get ready for spring which is no different, that is why it is asked and he seems out of touch. These mom and pop places will not survive missing the start of growing season.

Yeah I was watching Friday, and didn't care for that as well. I'd let them open honestly, even Illinois is letting those places open this month state wide. I've been watching him regularly and I was disappointed in it.

[Independentthinking83]

Originally Posted by ForYourLungsOnly

I work in healthcare in the critical care setting. I, first hand, saw the massive acute surge of critically ill patients we had just in our hospital just because of COVID-19. I know many hospitals in the Chicago area that faired far worse than ours. I saw many deaths, many families say goodbye to their family members on ipads. Pittsburgh and their hospitals have been VERY lucky that they have been hit quite lightly overall.

That being said, I don't disagree with what a lot of what the physician from UPMC is saying. Given that the Pittsburgh region has been hit fairly lightly, there is no reason that UPMC should not start doing more elective surgeries soon. Even hospitals around Chicago are now taking a step-wise approach to reactivate. I want everyone to also think of the statistics. Most people who understand this stuff already knew that the n was much MUCH higher than what was being reported as far as the number of cases total in the U.S. But think again of the initial thoughts on mortality that were (thankfully) wrong. You realize that if 20% of citizens get this disease and it actually had a 2% mortality, that deaths would be in the millions, right? We should be very thankful that it more likely has a mortality rate of 0.2%, still worse than the flu, but much more manageable. We've seen more deaths from COVID in the US in this short 6 week timeline than we do for most entire flu seasons. That is WITH major social distancing and extreme measures taken to prevent spread. I am not a sensationalist, but a realist who has seen first hand the effects the virus had on the healthcare system.

Yes, Pittsburgh and UPMC got very lucky, but I can tell you right now that doctor understands what many of his colleagues out in Philly, NYC, Chicago, etc. went through and are going through. The distancing measures initally taken were very necessary. I can't imagine what critical care units in big cities across the nation would have looked like if we just carried on like business as usual back in mid March. I agree that it is time to cautiously begin reopening the economy, with most counties being open by the end of May. If we are smart, the nation can ease out of these restrictions by early summer and we can be prepared going into fall with more arsenal to tackle COVID when it surges again (and it will). Like the doctor said, COVID will be with us for the long term future, so we should get used to it and intelligently plan how to live with it until a vaccine is available.

I think most of the population has or have had this disease already. Testing is minimal and what you are likely seeing is the worst cases. Ohio for example has 3,000 cases in just one prison alone. Almost 100 percent test positive and 95 percent are asymptomatic. Realistically the mortality rate is probably closer to .001%. Pittsburgh should be one of the hardest hit cities due to population density coupled with a high percentage of old folks and air pollution which is supposed to make it worse. Yet not much has happened here.

Also they tested something like 3,000 people at random in New York and 15% of those folks had the antibodies. Which means they had it and didn’t know or had it and recovered.

This disease is doomsday for nursing homes and people with a weak immune system.

I have a co worker who lives in Chicago as well. His wife is a nurse. He stated that in a city like Chicago it is normal everyday with full patient beds and ERs. I also have a friend that’s a nurse for the Cleveland clinic and he said hospitals are empty. According to stats they have had more cases than Pittsburgh.

And finally they can’t accurately pinpoint when the disease first landed here in the states. They are saying the first death was early February. If so then this was let go for for weeks before restrictions were in place.

I believe the disease is real, but it just isn’t doomsday. Our leadership is very poor on every level. This should’ve been managed better. The numbers don’t show we should’ve shut down. The UPMC doctor is right. This was all manufactured panic and we gave our economy away for it.

[prnlvsxy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

Almost 100 percent test positive

Also they tested something like 3,000 people at random in New York and 15% of those folks had the antibodies.

Which is it, 15% or 100%?

[Kippy]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking83

I think most of the population has or have had this disease already. Testing is minimal and what you are likely seeing is the worst cases. Ohio for example has 3,000 cases in just one prison alone. Almost 100 percent test positive and 95 percent are asymptomatic. Realistically the mortality rate is probably closer to .001%. Pittsburgh should be one of the hardest hit cities due to population density coupled with a high percentage of old folks and air pollution which is supposed to make it worse. Yet not much has happened here.

Also they tested something like 3,000 people at random in New York and 15% of those folks had the antibodies. Which means they had it and didn’t know or had it and recovered.

They increased the sample size to 15,000. Here are the NYC results by borough:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYGovCuom...02990355664899

While the numbers are high, it is not most of the NYC population. I don’t think that one can assume that the same percentage of Pittsburgh residents have antibodies. There is no evidence of a larger scale outbreak, as there was in New York. New York’s outbreak had to do with certain characteristics that don’t necessarily apply to Pittsburgh, such as percentage of citizens who love in high rises, use of public transportation, etc.

The results do indicate that the virus is not as lethal as it is portrayed to be.

[gg]

Originally Posted by ForYourLungsOnly

I don’t live in Pittsburgh, which is why much of my post references Chicagoland...

Must be intelligent about these things, though, having lived through what it looks like on the “bad” end. I’m all for re-opening the economy...intelligently. Would love to see every county in the US be “green” by June 1st.

Oh, got it. Chicago is a mess, so you are really in the middle of it all.

Green by June 1st. Wow, that would be amazing, but I don't see it.