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Old 12-27-2015, 10:39 AM
 
Location: Arizona
1,665 posts, read 2,950,910 times
Reputation: 2385

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https://www.city-data.com/forum/arizo...residents.html

Az added over 100,000 residents so how many housing units will be needed for 100,000?
Even if you assume there were 4 members for each family that would mean 25,000 homes would be needed and we are far away from that many homes being built,so supply and demand says prices will go up.

 
Old 12-27-2015, 11:06 AM
SMG
 
Location: Gilbert
490 posts, read 1,111,554 times
Reputation: 666
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
What's your point?

If you read my post, I said the same thing. No one knows for sure but the trends are in the statistics. For that matter, the Chief Economist that I was discussing said the same thing. I'm positive Mike Orr would obviously know he cannot predict the future. We could all quickly pick one of several variables that could spark a slowdown. So where did I say I could predict the future again? I didn't. I'm discussing probabilities and I look at trends. I don't get derailed as easily as others. The thread title uses the word "guess". I would call it an educated guess where people tend on being right more than they are wrong). It's why the world hires "economists" which is vastly different the a part time real estate agents who gets hired to get a market.
Why so snarky? Never understand why folks cant discuss this stuff without being so nasty. Not talking about this post so much, but the entire thread.
Didnt make any sense of your last sentence either. Not certain who the part time agent who "gets hired to get a market" is or what that even means.
 
Old 12-27-2015, 11:12 AM
 
9,805 posts, read 11,196,252 times
Reputation: 8509
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMG View Post
Why so snarky? Never understand why folks cant discuss this stuff without being so nasty. Not talking about this post so much, but the entire thread.
Didnt make any sense of your last sentence either. Not certain who the part time agent who "gets hired to get a market" is or what that even means.
Did you read your post? Yours had some snark (at least that is how i read it).

Aren't you an RE agent? Are you an Economist (do you model / predict home values)? Me either. I was quoting others that do. Their job is to report the sales figures and examine and report on the trends. To me at least, that is meaningful data in an attempt to make an educational guess (a.k.a. probabilities). do you know of a better local resource than Mike Orr? That was my only point in mentioning his name.
 
Old 12-27-2015, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Amongst the AZ Cactus
7,068 posts, read 6,480,793 times
Reputation: 7730
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMG View Post
I have been lurking on the sidelines the last couple of days, thought I would throw my .02 in. Over the years, I have valued about 8000 properties here in Maricopa County. I do this for various lenders, investors and private parties. I read comments from some of you that seem to know exactly what will happen with property values. When others do not see things the same as you, insults are hurled their way.
While it is apparently fun to speculate and quote Cromford and Michael Orr, the bottom line is that none of us can be certain of what values will do. Adding insults to your exchange does not strengthen your point or add to your credibility.
Carry on however you see fit. But as a person that does this every day for years on end, I am not certain what values will do. Really surprised so many here are.
A breathe of fresh air in your realistic view as I feel the same way/expressed the same thing towards the top of this thread. Trying to predict the unpredictable seems to be a human need....perhaps Maslow needs to add this to his hierarchy of needs.

Though as others have stated, it is a guessing game in the end and that can be an entertaining thing in and of itself. I play that game myself on things like I suppose most of us do.

Last edited by stevek64; 12-27-2015 at 11:27 AM..
 
Old 12-27-2015, 11:42 AM
SMG
 
Location: Gilbert
490 posts, read 1,111,554 times
Reputation: 666
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Did you read your post? Yours had some snark (at least that is how i read it).

Aren't you an RE agent? Are you an Economist (do you model / predict home values)? Me either. I was quoting others that do. Their job is to report the sales figures and examine and report on the trends. To me at least, that is meaningful data in an attempt to make an educational guess (a.k.a. probabilities). do you know of a better local resource than Mike Orr? That was my only point in mentioning his name.

no, I am not an economist. Yes, I am a real estate agent. I am assuming you threw the part time label in there in an attempt to diminish any comments that I was making. it really does not matter if I am part time or full time. But, since you have erroneously labeled me as a part time person, I will correct you and let you know I have been doing this full time for over 10 years. My original post was not even directed towards you, but you apparently feel singled out. At this point, I am walking away from this and regret even offering my thoughts up.have a happy new year.

Last edited by SMG; 12-27-2015 at 11:54 AM..
 
Old 12-27-2015, 12:04 PM
 
9,805 posts, read 11,196,252 times
Reputation: 8509
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMG View Post
no, I am not an economist. Yes, I am a real estate agent. I am assuming you threw the part time label in there in an attempt to diminish any comments that I was making. it really does not matter if I am part time or full time. But, since you have erroneously labeled me as a part time person, I will correct you and let you know I have been doing this full time for well over 10 years. My original post was not even directed towards you, but you apparently feel singled out. At this point, I am walking away from this and regret even offering my thoughts up.have a happy new year.
Then I owe you an apology.

It goes without saying NO ONE can predict the future with certainly. As snark-free I can make this next statement, mentioning otherwise is a waste of typed words (as in smack yourself aside the head obvious). There is value for some to try and understand where the PHX housing market is going. It's why there are people who only study housing economics. The National Association of Home Builders care, mortgage companies hire economists which helps them shape risk and they care, investors care, city planners care etc.

I hope you were not suggesting to write-off what Mike Orr does. After all, why do hundreds of PHX businesses pay for his services? In fact, people in your industry (RE Sales) pay for his service. They all know he is working off of statistics and modeling.

I did not consider myself lucky in my 25+ investment RE transactions. I've made hundreds of thousands of dollars. I now chose to focus on what I do best and not get side tracked on trying to understand the local RE market.
 
Old 12-27-2015, 12:26 PM
SMG
 
Location: Gilbert
490 posts, read 1,111,554 times
Reputation: 666
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Then I owe you an apology.

I hope you were not suggesting to write-off what Mike Orr does. After all, why do hundreds of PHX businesses pay for his services? In fact, people in your industry (RE Sales) pay for his service. They all know he is working off of statistics and modeling.
No, at no point in my original post did I come close to doing that. I pay for Comfort Reports every month. I also speculate on our local markets. What I don't do is take potshots at people when their views differ from mine. I do not take things to a personal level when discussing things like this. You do Minnesota, so do a few others here. I am pretty dialed in to values here, it is what I do. But, I tend to stay away from these discussions for the reasons I just mentioned. Because, if my opinions don't align with yours, the judgmental comments occur. That strikes me as silly as it is just speculation anyway.
 
Old 12-27-2015, 01:29 PM
 
9,805 posts, read 11,196,252 times
Reputation: 8509
Quote:
Originally Posted by SMG View Post
No, at no point in my original post did I come close to doing that. I pay for Comfort Reports every month. I also speculate on our local markets. What I don't do is take potshots at people when their views differ from mine.
Maybe you could clarify what you meant by this: "While it is apparently fun to speculate and quote Cromford and Michael Orr, the bottom line is that none of us can be certain of what values will do." Then why buy his report??

I looked at his data to study trends. Along with another expert who you have read dozens of times as a RE agent (the person I am speaking about happens to be a customer of mine in an unrelated topic).

In summary, I did my best get close to the bottom. I officially missed the last bottom by about 7 months but at least I had a tremendous amount of housing inventory to chose from and I was able to negotiate with strength. This certainly isn't repeatable but I took a very educated guess. I'm up $135K on this home from early 2011. Do you think I got lucky or did I have the odds in my favor? Maybe I got lucky on the magnitude ($135K or 75% gain) but I was very confident I would be up X amount of dollars. Still, i didn't buy this one for an investment. I just didn't want to buy when I thought the market was going to drop. Cut paste, and repeat. I did the same with 3 Properties on the beach in Mazatlan, 3 properties in St. Micheal Canada (lake Toro), and numerous properties on lakes in Northern MN. I'm down $10K on a single property (after selling costs) and up several hundred thousand on the others. I simply kept on taking educated bets.

With that said, I don't think there is much value with an individual trying to "time the market" 99% of the time especially when they are buying a home to use and live in. It's a wasted effort unless housing is really overpriced.

My posts had a level of confidence to them as I was trying to explain why if something really matters, the event or policy will show up in the housing numbers. That was my point. But at the end of the day, it was wasted bandwidth. It seems opinionated people (forums are full of them) are not into listening all that much. Yes, I too am opinionated. Just not as snarky as some.

So with that said, I will bow out of the conversation and use my keystrokes to answer some people who want to buy some widgets.

Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 12-27-2015 at 01:38 PM..
 
Old 12-27-2015, 02:08 PM
SMG
 
Location: Gilbert
490 posts, read 1,111,554 times
Reputation: 666
Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
Maybe you could clarify what you meant by this: "While it is apparently fun to speculate and quote Cromford and Michael Orr, the bottom line is that none of us can be certain of what values will do." Then why buy his report??
That statement should not need any clarification, it is pretty easy to understand. Why wouldn't I buy those reports? There is a lot of valuable info that relates to my line of work. Not all of the info in those reports is future based speculation.
 
Old 12-27-2015, 02:41 PM
 
584 posts, read 1,341,759 times
Reputation: 476
To answer the Op question about home prices. I would say depends on where/what city in the valley but in general, the trend is up and will continue to be up. Personally, i think the entire would going to be expensive in the future just as you look back 40-50 years ago on home prices Vs what it is now.

I am in Goodyear and pay a great attention to where i live than other parts in the valley. One thing i noticed every day more and more people moving to this city and all the sudden it is now 75K people in population.
I just came across this link below and i can understand why.


http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b...ne-of-the.html
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