Any guesses on home prices? (Phoenix: lease, credit report, student loan)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

Because he's most likely forgotten more than you'll ever know. How about proving any fact he stated as "wrong"? Then you might have at least some credibility?

You really need to read the articles you link to before coming up with a stance:

"Whether homes become unaffordable as a result of rising rates is a key question for the housing market. Zillow's Humphries points out that in markets such as Phoenix it costs only 13 percent of the average family’s household income to cover its 30-year monthly mortgage payments despite the rate increase. That compares with the 20 percent of income it used to cost in the years leading up to the housing bubble. So, in his view, houses in Phoenix are still very affordable."

Then, later in the article, another analyst strongly disagreed with his opinion of a 20% housing drop. FYI, he'd talking about in the institutional purchase areas, which are the lower income areas here such as Avondale, Maricopa, etc. I have seen many of these properties sell recently and they are not selling them cheaply, they are making money on the sales with typical market exposure.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

Right. No one invested in real property anywhere in Phoenix except for Avondale and Maricopa.

I can sit here and look up institutions and see who owns which houses, etc. It is not secret information. There are no institutional sales in my area but I see them all of the time when I look at real estate in the lower income areas. You can kind of tell when you see a $200,000 list price and it most recently sold for $2,500,000 to an investment company and includes 20 other houses.

The great thing about our predictions is that we will find out before too long who is correct, I will be sure to revisit this with you in the future.

[Greeniis78]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

There are few approaches to predict what will happen in home prices. The 1st option is to toss out all of the metrics and simply say "no one can predict bla bla bla...". IMHO, that is the head-in-the-sand approach. NOTHING is 100%, but surely you can assess probabilities. There are times when the probabilities were weak and very volatile and then the Cromford report made that statement.

Option 2 is insert you own personal feelings into the mix without a nickels amount of research. To validate ones point of view, just google any asinine viewpoint and someone is going to pontificate what you were thinking a the world is full of paranoid people and articles cater to paranoia. As an example, google "World War 4" (World War 4 will supposedly be fought with sticks and stones), the "collapse of the world economy", "a MEGA asteroids hitting the earth", or "a Super bug killing millions of people". I made all of these up. But low-and-behold, see Superbugs could kill 10 million people a year, report warns - CBS News (and I can give you 20 more links related) on other cockamamie versions. All of these theories start with a small shed of possibilities and build up the remaining argument. Your theory starts with high rent prices plus a (typical) soft winter demand and you let your mind wander without any data to support your view.

I on the other hand use option 3 and lean on people who study the topic with actual statistical data. It just so happens PHX area has a guy who does just that. This RE region is incredibly unique to have such a person. So if I read you right, you thought, "Wow, that is interesting but I'm going to toss out that intense research to default what I personally think". Everyone has a right to go about it by themselves and trust their (zero research) gut feelings. Does that seem very logical you you?

No man that wasnt my attitude...lol...I dont discredit any of the info you gave me. No I just dont go on gut instinct. I watch the markets monthly movements. So Of course I read aswell. And as you can see this room is very well divided. If you ask me we should make up a new thread in a couple of months so we can sit and ponder on who was right and who was wrong.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by asufan

Why am I supposed to believe this one guys prediction of a "possibility" rather than my own?

How about because it's not a "prediction", or just "one guy".

20 Cities with Worst Mortgage-Housing Problems - The Daily Beast

Worst Real Estate Cities - The Daily Beast

Originally Posted by asufan

The market as you describe it, is a normal market.

From the same article:

"Nearly one in four American homeowners are now underwater on their mortgage."

[GeneR]

I found some of the data provided here useful but then came personal attacks and snarky comments which do nothing to further the discussion. Why is it necessary to devolve into such juvenile behavior on what could otherwise be an informative discussion?

[Discovery1]

Originally Posted by petlover8

Why? Do you think Phoenicians are living any differently than the rest of this country? "All Americans" refers to those that live in Arizona as well. As I mentioned in a previous post, 60% of mortgage applications received by Chase Bank here in Phoenix ARE REJECTED before they ever make it to underwriting. Do you think that is because we're so economically stable here?

You better back it up what you said about Chase rejected 60% of mortgage applications. I just talked to a best friend of mine who works at Chase mortgage here and he said it's a lie.

Hello ???

[Discovery1]

Originally Posted by GeneR

I found some of the data provided here useful but then came personal attacks and snarky comments which do nothing to further the discussion. Why is it necessary to devolve into such juvenile behavior on what could otherwise be an informative discussion?

Too many people lost their homes in recent years here in Phoenix and they don't want to see or believe the recovery. Can't blame them though but positive thinking should put them in a better path towards the future rather then the world will end shortly with the question mark flying dark.

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by petlover8

And here is a news flash for you..... Wise up and learn what's been driving these prices:

A Lonely Housing Bear Predicts a Big Tumble - Bloomberg

"Half the gains since the latest housing bottom in 2011 could be erased in the hot areas -- Florida, California, Nevada, ARIZONA and Georgia -- by rising interest rates and a thinner herd of speculative private-equity buyers, he says."

"Hanson says private-equity firms caused about 50 percent of the price appreciation in cities like PHOENIX and Las Vegas, and generally overpaid by 10 percent to 20 percent, according to his calculations."

Is that "specific" enough for you?

An October 2013 article stating home prices could tumble 20% in the next 12 months.....


Well that didn't happen now did it


"Hanson Advisers predicts a decline of 20 percent in housing prices in the next 12 months. " which would have been by October 2014

[petlover8]

The problem with housing markets is people become emotionally invested in them. They WANT a good housing market. Let's be honest, who doesn't? The problem is their thinking, along with their wants, cloud their judgment. And in the process they reject things they don't like hearing, and latch on to most anything that will support their wants and positive views.

I quite honestly could care less about the housing market. Speaking for myself personally, I'm 63 years old with no children and fully retired. My home is paid for, and I've lived in it for the last 18 years. I'm not going anywhere. So quite frankly, I couldn't give a damn what it's worth because it in no way effects my life either way. My money is securely and conservatively invested. I'm old and I'm done. As I've said before, I purchased my home new from the builder for $101,000.00 18 years ago. It's gone as high as $270,000.00, and as low as $75,000.00. It currently sits at or around $170,000.00. Nothing in my life has changed through all of it.

That makes me a pretty fair judge, who is not concerned either way. I went through this before with all of these guys who were jumping up and down about the silver market a few years ago. Back when they were all standing in line to buy it at $38.00 an ounce. I said they were all nuts. They were all absolutely convinced it was going to go to $150.00 an ounce or even higher. They bought and bought. And it went down and down. Just this past week it dropped into the $13.00 an ounce range. Now they're all crying in their beer. Sure, I could have been wrong, and it could have gone the other way. But absolutely nothing realistically pointed to that. They became emotionally invested in a market they had no control over. They simply WANTED silver to go up. It didn't because emotion doesn't drive silver prices any more than it drives real estate prices.

No matter. They made these silly claims of how, "we were running out of silver", because, "China was buying it all up!" They went on and on how it couldn't go below $23.00 an ounce, "because it cost more than that to mine it!" Well, guess what? They're still mining it at $14.00 an ounce, and they're not going broke doing it either. They simply ignored all of the signs, and bought into all the bull$h!t. They all sounded like a William Devane commercial for Rosland Capital.

My point in all of this is to think practically, and don't just believe what you want to think, and or hear. This country is in really bad economic shape right now. We're carrying a tremendous national debt that will shortly top $20 Trillion dollars. The AVERAGE American family is currently over $204,000.00 in debt. People have little to no savings. Long term employment has become a thing of the past, as Americans have become a nation of job hoppers. And those jobs don't pay what they did 5 or 6 years ago. Mean family income has dropped steadily. This is all fact, and all of this effects the housing market in a very negative way.

That may not be what you want to hear. But it is all factual. And those kind of facts don't lend themselves well to a lucrative housing market. Here or anywhere. It's only a matter of time. People can't exist on borrowed money indefinitely.

[StandardSchnauzerMama]

Also we shouldn't forget that in and around 2005 banks gave out large amount of interest only Home Equity Loans to millions of people. In January, 2016 these borrowers must start to pay the principal balance back and by a recent article, most of the homeowners are not prepared for the significantly increased monthly payment. They predict this will impact the housing market negatively for sellers because some foreclosures will occur and house values drop again. I'm sure to see this impact on the housing market will take some time.

P.S. I'm posting here because... currently live in MA but we are preparing our house for sale and planning to move to Phoenix as soon as it sells.