Any guesses on home prices? (Phoenix, Pine: days on market, short sales, rentals)

[JTW2013]

Originally Posted by Discovery1

You better back it up what you said about Chase rejected 60% of mortgage applications. I just talked to a best friend of mine who works at Chase mortgage here and he said it's a lie.

Hello ???

Yeah I'd like to know how a hearsay conversion with some random person that none of us know has become FACT!!!!!

Some people just like to argue.

[breakingbad]

Originally Posted by petlover8

I was just at a Chase branch the other day, and had an opportunity to talk to a mortgage banker I know there. She told me that 60% to 70% of the mortgage applications she receives never make it to underwriting. And several of those that do get turned down in underwriting. She say's this is because they feel the Phoenix real estate market is extremely unstable at present. Chase does NOT want to get caught with their pants down, standing in the fire, like so many banks did in 2008. She told me her friends who work at other lending institutions in the Valley say much the same. This is NOT a good sign.

As son as the market got just a tad bit better in came the builders and initiated the boom process all over again.
I have since moved (may be regretting ...not uncommon for me) and noticed that here in the Washington DC Metro Area things came to a halt early this year. Nothing is moving in my neighborhood for months and I live in a desirable area. I wonder what is going on? I'm not an economist but something is changing.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by breakingbad

.................Nothing is moving in my neighborhood for months and I live in a desirable area. I wonder what is going on? I'm not an economist but something is changing.

It's certainly not because they're handing out mortgages like candy. These lenders got burned in the crash...... Badly. There are consequences for that. They all thought this would never end. It did with a vengeance. Now they've gone back to solid lending principals they never should have gotten away from in the first place. Add to that the exceptionally large amount of people you now have running around with train wrecked credit, directly attributed to all of these overpriced homes they walked away from, and a 60% rejection rate is not only plausible, it's surprising it isn't higher.

Then you've got people with astronomical credit card debt, auto loans, student loan debt, lease payments, and God knows what else all piled on their credit reports, and it's no small wonder why these people get rejected for a mortgage. Also, most have little or nothing to put down, especially if they're first time buyers. And then there is that nasty little fact no one wants to fess up to, that over 25% of people with mortgages are currently under water with them. Add on just how much income levels have dropped since the idiot in the White House took over. Along with economic forecasts that would make a hurricane welcome, and forget 60%. It's a wonder they're lending at all.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Petlover8. I can make the same statement as you. I don't have a mortgage on either home. I'm in financially good shape and I am extremely conservative with my lifestyle. I bought here in PHX area in 2011 at $52 a square foot and now it is worth around $90 a square foot. If it drops to whatever, I still have a nice home worth a lot less. So basically my kids get less $$'s when i die.

Back in 2009 and 2010 when people were professing that homes were done falling in PHX area, I was debating otherwise. To me, it was obvious that we were not done yet. It turned out I was right. Just look at my posts back then. But I cheated. I looked at the Cromford report. I also have a customer who was the chief economist at a well known institution which I will leave nameless (he was often quoted in the Wall Street Journal and other rags). In short, I had incredible data mining capabilities. So while people were guessing about "Shadow Inventory" I wasn't. I diverge... Anyways, no one knew when the official bottom was going to happen but I was pretty darn sure I was close. I worked off of probabilities and I stole a very nice house.

This era is no different. It's pretty obvious that in the next year the PHX housing market is pretty stable. And baring a massive event which is always possible yet incredibly rare, we will be clipping along. There will always be a fear(s) to read about and get yourself all lathered up over. People will be pontificating how the event will devastate the economy. My biggest concern long term is the $18 Trillion in debt which is also the case with nearly every major economy ($20K or more of government debt per person). Officially no one can really be prepared for Armageddon or a complete meltdown of the economy. Therefore I don't go to bed worried. After all, we are all going to die one day. I'm not panicking about dying either.

The current HX housing data is not pointing towards any major correction. Just because you are 63 years old does not qualify you as a PHX RE expert nor a respected economist. I am no expert either. But I am smart enough to look at people who study it more than ANYBODY in PHX and that is Mike Orr. He was right before, and I predict he will right again. Hence I predict what he predicts: PHX will go up 2-4 percent especially in the homes below $250K. There is no need to overthink it much more than that.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

... I am no expert either. But I am smart enough to look at people who study it more than ANYBODY in PHX and that is Mike Orr. He was right before, and I predict he will right again. Hence I predict what he predicts: PHX will go up 2-4 percent especially in the homes below $250K. There is no need to overthink it much more than that.

Yeah, I`ll second that. Mike Orr probably has the best track record when it comes to evaluating and then predicting the Phx housing market. The man is very knowledgeable.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Moderator cut: .

Tone it down about 12 notches. You have so much bite in your post. Merry Christmas!

You didn't read my words correctly. In the post I said: "...also the case with nearly every major economy ($20K or more of government debt per person)." I was discussing Canada, Japan, Italy, Greece, the UK, etc. About every major 1st world economy is at or over $20K in hawk. Meaning, it isn't just the USA (which exploded by many more trillions in recent years). I'm an engineer by degree and I am pretty good at math. I do know how to divide $18T/ by the total # of citizens in the USA. So what makes me nervous is basically the whole 1st world is in hawk. But I am still going to snore tonight. I'm not worried in the least and tell my kids to not buy a house in PHX (Daughter is going to be a dentist; ZERO debt. Son is going to be an MD and again, zero debt). I would have told them to wait in 2005 (I had sold off 3 additional homes by 2005 so I took my own advice). But not in 2015. In PHX, I'd say sleep like a baby.

You are right. We have all formed an opinion. I was simply scoffing at your litmus test of expertise. It seems you were suggesting that we need to yield because you are 63 years old. I on the the hand was suggesting studying people who are real experts in the PHX RE market like Mike Orr. There is no reason to get our undies in a bundle. We shall see what happens in a year.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by john3232

Yeah, I`ll second that. Mike Orr probably has the best track record when it comes to evaluating and then predicting the Phx housing market. The man is very knowledgeable.

Yep. I know of no other location nationally who has a no-nonsense RE guru. I feel I own him a $100K for his help in me getting a superb handle on the local RE market. At least I own him dinner.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

It seems you were suggesting that we need to yield because you are 63 years old.

I made no such suggestion. I mentioned my age and my financial condition in order to prove I have no real dog in this fight. I'm simply looking at the same data you are, and seeing all of it from a different perspective. If my house dropped over 50% in value, (like it did after the crash), it would not effect my life one bit.

Yet it bankrupted many who were paying on interest only mortgages. Simply because of the financial liability they took on, combined with overpaying for what they bought. I am not in that situation. That is all I was trying to point out. You read it wrong, pure and simple. People today that have little equity, coupled to a huge mortgage, want and need a good housing market to remain economically viable. If another crash occurs, they'll drown just like they did the last time. Many are predicting just that. This alone clouds the data they absorb. They tend to listen to people who tell them what they want to hear, as opposed to those who, like myself, have a very negative view of what is happening financially in today's world.

And just because other countries have debt that rivals ours, (which most don't), does not make ours any less dangerous. Owed money doesn't lessen it's financial impact on economies if you grade it on a Bell Curve.

[pgc323]

Originally Posted by john3232

Yeah, I`ll second that. Mike Orr probably has the best track record when it comes to evaluating and then predicting the Phx housing market. The man is very knowledgeable.

And I'll vote yes for that motion. I purchased a home in Phoenix metro in mid 2010 and have been watching the market closely ever since. It looks fine, and I'm not worried at all. Since this thread is entitled "Any guesses on home prices" I'll guess home prices will continue to rise.

[Potential_Landlord]

My best guess would be 5% up next year in Phoenix.