Any guesses on home prices? (Phoenix, Avondale: for sale, 2014, foreclosures)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

You can of course, quote from all the "experts" you want, or happen to agree with. But with facts like this starring you in the face, it takes quite an optimist to be bullish on a housing market most anywhere today. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how you try to sugar coat it, this nations economy is hanging by a thread. And the danger lies in the fact you don't hear anyone talking about solutions. That's because wealth has to be earned. It cannot be created by liberals in Washington trying to divide, and hand out what's left of it.

14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke And Totally Unprepared For The Coming Economic Crisis | Zero Hedge

Moderator cut: .
#7 One survey discovered that 52 percent of all Americans really cannot even financially afford the homes that they are living in right now.
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This is a Phoenix specific forum, so the topic is Phoenix area Real Estate, not "All Americans". What you posted does not pertain to the topic at hand.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by asufan

This is a Phoenix specific forum, so the topic is Phoenix area Real Estate, not "All Americans". What you posted does not pertain to the topic at hand.

Why? Do you think Phoenicians are living any differently than the rest of this country? "All Americans" refers to those that live in Arizona as well. As I mentioned in a previous post, 60% of mortgage applications received by Chase Bank here in Phoenix ARE REJECTED before they ever make it to underwriting. Do you think that is because we're so economically stable here?

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

Why? Do you think Phoenicians are living any differently than the rest of this country? "All Americans" refers to those that live in Arizona as well.

Yes, I do. "All Americans" includes people in higher COL areas such as: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Chicago, Washington DC, New York, Boston, Honolulu and many other areas. In those areas, it is easy to say that 80-90++% of them cannot afford to live in the house they currently live in based on the recommendations of financial experts. Then you have people living in lower cost of living areas such as Phoenix, which bring the national average down to 50%.

This thread is not about Americans as a whole overextending themselves, it is about the Phoenix Real Estate market.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

Why? Do you think Phoenicians are living any differently than the rest of this country? "All Americans" refers to those that live in Arizona as well. As I mentioned in a previous post, 60% of mortgage applications received by Chase Bank here in Phoenix ARE REJECTED before they ever make it to underwriting. Do you think that is because we're so economically stable here?

I already responded to this up thread. Chase is still actively purchasing mortgages in the secondary market here, but is apparently looking for A-paper. People with poor credit have to go to other mortgage lenders, and there are plenty here still willing to do sub prime mortgages, but they are not fraudulently completing the paperwork like they were able to 10 years ago.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by asufan

This thread is not about Americans as a whole overextending themselves, it is about the Phoenix Real Estate market.

And those same overextended people exist HERE in just as large, if not larger proportions. Just look at how hard this area was hit during the crash. That isn't because the people living here were so financially solvent. Phoenix was one of the worst in the country. The fact remains, regardless of how much you want to think it doesn't apply, overextended means just that.

People who cannot survive because of a weak financial posture, make for a very insolvent real estate market. As was proven here. This trend has worsened, not gotten any better. The average American is just a few paychecks away from being homeless. The fact is that average applies just as accurately HERE as it does anywhere else, if not more. To think Phoenix is exempt from any of this is thinking foolishly.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

And those same overextended people exist HERE in just as large, if not larger proportions. Just look at how hard this area was hit during the crash. That isn't because the people living here were so financially solvent. Phoenix was one of the worst in the country. The fact remains, regardless of how much you want to think it doesn't apply, overextended means just that.

People who cannot survive because of a weak financial posture, make for a very insolvent real estate market. As was proven here. This trend has worsened, not gotten any better. The average American is just a few paychecks away from being homeless. The fact is that average applies just as accurately HERE as it does anywhere else, if not more. To think Phoenix is exempt for any of this is thinking foolishly.

Where are you getting your Phoenix specific data from? I'll wait...

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by asufan

Where are you getting your Phoenix specific data from?

YOU for starters.

Originally Posted by asufan

Chase is still actively purchasing mortgages in the secondary market here, but is apparently looking for A-paper.

With a 60% rejection rate, they sure don't appear to be finding too much of it in Phoenix, do they?

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

YOU for starters.



With a 60% rejection rate, they sure don't appear to be finding too much of it in Phoenix, do they?

Here's a newsflash for you: There are people overextending themselves on housing everywhere, all of the time. The fact that a % of Americans or people in Phoenix are overextending themselves has been the norm in healthy markets just as they were in bad markets. The fact that lenders are clamping down on either income requirements, debt ratio or credit rating is a good thing because it is making a dent in the numbers of people that are overextending themselves (although they can still overextend themselves in other areas).

There is demand for housing and then there is effective demand for housing (actually being able to purchase, not just wanting to). The great thing about someone being denied for having poor credit, low income or too much debt is that it is all curable, so that demand eventually becomes effective demand (i.e. future home buyers). The market as you describe it, is a normal market. There will always be those that overextend themselves in America.

[petlover8]

And here is a news flash for you..... Wise up and learn what's been driving these prices:

A Lonely Housing Bear Predicts a Big Tumble - Bloomberg

"Half the gains since the latest housing bottom in 2011 could be erased in the hot areas -- Florida, California, Nevada, ARIZONA and Georgia -- by rising interest rates and a thinner herd of speculative private-equity buyers, he says."

"Hanson says private-equity firms caused about 50 percent of the price appreciation in cities like PHOENIX and Las Vegas, and generally overpaid by 10 percent to 20 percent, according to his calculations."

Is that "specific" enough for you?

[asufan]

Originally Posted by petlover8

And here is a news flash for you..... Wise up and learn what's been driving these prices:

A Lonely Housing Bear Predicts a Big Tumble - Bloomberg

"Half the gains since the latest housing bottom in 2011 could be erased in the hot areas -- Florida, California, Nevada, ARIZONA and Georgia -- by rising interest rates and a thinner herd of speculative private-equity buyers, he says."

"Hanson says private-equity firms caused about 50 percent of the price appreciation in cities like PHOENIX and Las Vegas, and generally overpaid by 10 percent to 20 percent, according to his calculations."

Is that "specific" enough for you?

LOL, A "lonely housing bear" Why am I supposed to believe this one guys prediction of a "possibility" rather than my own, considering I make money here locally buying, selling and consulting on Real Estate and study the actual market every week? As I stated before, I see the market mostly stable, no more than 3-5% drop or increase in 2016 and I am sticking to that. When median sales prices drop 30-40% in 2016, get back to me and I'll buy you a 6 Pack of San Tan Mr Pineapple beer.