Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Springfield, Brookline: recruit, Mormon, advertise)

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by id77

The listings I've been watching suggest Boston (Allston to Beacon Hill and points in-between) and northern Brookline have at least momentarily flattened on their upward price trajectories. Basically, places where single-family homes are few and yards are small.

Interesting. That really hasn’t happened on the other side of the river. The only places that have somewhat slowed in Cambridge are some 1BR and studios. Everything else is still going bananas. It’s hard to figure. I still believe the rental market is going to drag real estate in the urban core down at some point.

[id77]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Interesting. That really hasn’t happened on the other side of the river. The only places that have somewhat slowed in Cambridge are some 1BR and studios. Everything else is still going bananas. It’s hard to figure. I still believe the rental market is going to drag real estate in the urban core down at some point.

It's Redfin, but FWIW:

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/02116/housing-market

The market's having a flattening for about a year, but you can bet in 5-7 years that average sales price will be close to $2 million and price per square foot another $100-200 higher.

[Dm84]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

There's a lot of discussion on people moving out to the boondocks to escape Covid-19 and take advantage of current remote working practices. I don't know how many people are actually doing that. I believe it's a thing, but I suspect it's a distinct minority of people. And I agree that it's a risk. Clearly some companies are adapting, and for at least some of their workforce, indefinitely. But I don't think this is most roles in most businesses. I imagine that the *need* to work remotely for health reasons will be pretty much gone by the end of next year. Then you'll have a surplus of people wanting remote work, and a relative shortage of positions to suit them. You could of course move back again, but 2 house sales in 2 years will cause a pretty big financial hit.

A lot of companies are souring on paying for office space that's been mostly vacant for 8 months and will likely lay vacant at least another 6 or 7 months. I do think a lot of jobs will be in person again in 2022, but I don't think they'll be in person 5 days a week. If someone has to drive into the office 2 days a week, they'll be willing to drive much further than if they had to do it 5 days a week.

[id77]

Originally Posted by Dm84

A lot of companies are souring on paying for office space that's been mostly vacant for 8 months and will likely lay vacant at least another 6 or 7 months. I do think a lot of jobs will be in person again in 2022, but I don't think they'll be in person 5 days a week. If someone has to drive into the office 2 days a week, they'll be willing to drive much further than if they had to do it 5 days a week.

I still don't see why someone would do such a long commute even 2 days a week if they didn't have to. What's gained from having a home with a 90-minute commute as opposed to a home with a 30-minute one? A home close to entertainment and shopping as opposed to a home that's not?

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by Dm84

A lot of companies are souring on paying for office space that's been mostly vacant for 8 months and will likely lay vacant at least another 6 or 7 months. I do think a lot of jobs will be in person again in 2022, but I don't think they'll be in person 5 days a week. If someone has to drive into the office 2 days a week, they'll be willing to drive much further than if they had to do it 5 days a week.

Yes. My dept has been floating around not returning to the office. So perhaps I'm wrong and that many other depts have discussed the same thing. My point is that if someone is 34 working at a place like liberty mutual and they can currently work from home so they moved far away from Boston....is their plan to be working at liberty mutual remote until they retire? People change jobs frequently these days. Things happen with jobs, layoffs are a possibility. I would not take the risk of moving to VT and just assume that i'll be at my current job forever and assume the next job I find would be fully remote.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by id77

I still don't see why someone would do such a long commute even 2 days a week if they didn't have to. What's gained from having a home with a 90-minute commute as opposed to a home with a 30-minute one? A home close to entertainment and shopping as opposed to a home that's not?

I would gladly take a longer commute 2x per week to get more for my $$. More land, more SF, more space to do as I please. More trees. We don’t need entertainment, 99% of our shopping is done online.


Most of my social circle has done, or is doing the same thing. I don’t know anyone moving closer to Boston. Seems everyone I know is taking their profits on their inflated 128 belt house and moving to 495 or beyond.

I’ve been in my neighborhood 5 years and houses are selling for $200-250k more than what we paid. Our household income is higher as well. Time to take the profits and get closer to what we want.

[id77]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I would gladly take a longer commute 2x per week to get more for my $$. More land, more SF, more space to do as I please. More trees. We don’t need entertainment, 99% of our shopping is done online.


Most of my social circle has done, or is doing the same thing. I don’t know anyone moving closer to Boston. Seems everyone I know is taking their profits on their inflated 128 belt house and moving to 495 or beyond.

I’ve been in my neighborhood 5 years and houses are selling for $200-250k more than what we paid. Our household income is higher as well. Time to take the profits and get closer to what we want.

You're getting more square footage and more land that's worth less per unit than those inner suburbs, which is exactly why you're able to get more of it. You can buy 4,000 square feet in an Acton for less than 1,000 in Brookline only because a lot more people want that spot in Brookline than there are people wanting that spot in Acton (to be clear, this isn't to say nobody wants to live in Acton).

You also won't see the same long-term pace of appreciation out past 495. If it's your forever home, it's all fine and a moot point as long as you're happy. I think for a younger couple or single person who's just got the newfound freedom of WFH (if only temporarily) though, it's not a smart move to abandon a market that's on a long-term trajectory into the stratosphere, and with many more convenient employment choices, in exchange for more of something less valuable and convenient, unless they're just renting since rents gonna jump regardless of what they do. Buying-wise though, what's happening in Boston and its nearest, densest neighbors right now is the same as what happened to the stock market in late March, so those who are wise to it will catch the correction while they can; another chance might not come along for a while.

[bizcuit]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

My friend in Easthampton just got out of quarantine. Said she attended a small birthday party in someone's house and everyone else is sick with COVID. She said it's running rampant around there. I thought the colleges in the area had gone remote but maybe they didn't. Other than restaurants, I don't know what could have caused the spike around there.

I don't know, but the few times I've driven through downtown Northampton recently, the streets were hopping with pedestrians. All of the restaurant outdoor seating are filled and the stores look to be open. I'm sure people are taking precautions, but perhaps not enough.

Since there are noticeably many people out & about, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that there are social gatherings happening in homes. I don't know for a fact that this is the case, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by id77

I also never really understood this exodus. For people financially pinched a bit with living downtown, moving out a few miles made sense. People taking off for a middle-of-nowhere VT home on the hopes that they won't be commuting back to Boston in two years is rolling some really big (and loaded) dice. People who work in Boston (even if WFH right now) and are moving past 128 and especially 495 are insane. They're trading good location for poor location, good amenities for poor amenities, and decent commute for terrible commute...and for what?

Even though I WFH, I would want to stay as close to the city as I could manage. If anything, this is an opportunity for those younger people to get in to a closer suburb or even inner Boston by taking advantage of the housing market's flattening rather than fleeing and dealing with selling with a rural market when they're reeled back in kicking and screaming.

I telecommuted from my condo at a Vermont ski resort for 10 winters. Most people I had to interact with from my company were Mountain time, Pacific time, or in Asia. I could do an hour of email, boot up in the condo, and be on the hill for first chair most mornings. Nothing was usually on my calendar before 11:00. With high speed lifts, I could get a bunch of runs in.

In the summer, I was telecommuting from my summer place. I was usually out doing boat, beach, or bicycle by 4:30. I often had Asia calls in the evening so I had a god four hour window to live my summer life.

That’s always been my weekend lifestyle. I didn’t have kids in a school system so I could structure things that way.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

I telecommuted from my condo at a Vermont ski resort for 10 winters. Most people I had to interact with from my company were Mountain time, Pacific time, or in Asia. I could do an hour of email, boot up in the condo, and be on the hill for first chair most mornings. Nothing was usually on my calendar before 11:00. With high speed lifts, I could get a bunch of runs in.

In the summer, I was telecommuting from my summer place. I was usually out doing boat, beach, or bicycle by 4:30. I often had Asia calls in the evening so I had a god four hour window to live my summer life.

That’s always been my weekend lifestyle. I didn’t have kids in a school system so I could structure things that way.

I think the whole point here is that if someone moves to VT now and their company wants them back in the Boston office they are going to be inconvenienced. Sure, it's possible to be remote in VT and have calls with people throughout the world...but if management wants butts in seats again it doesn't matter how easy it was.