[airics]

Originally Posted by BBMW

The question is, what's driving the market, and what's going to change that. From what I've been hearing, the post crash professional investor (think hedge fund) influx has ended. If anything they're looking to cash out. I don't think this is speculation for speculation sake. Before the crash it was easy to get loans for that. That isn't the case now. I really don't think Vegas housing prices are being driven by Vegas salaries. If so, they'd never have gotten to these levels.

What seems to be mainly driving it at this point is people are priced out and/or cashing out of LA. So if LV is being driven by the LA market, what's driving that, and is that going to change any time soon? While Vegas is rising, so is LA. I haven't heard about the margin tightening. As long as they just go up in lockstep by percentage, they'll always be pressure on the LV market from LA.

No question...it’s definitely being driven by California. Just driving around, look at the amount of California license plates

[airics]

I don’t think it’s dropping just yet...just closed on the sale of our home on Friday and the other one i’ll Sell in late April or may

[Cubicle Dweller]

Originally Posted by BBMW

The question is, what's driving the market, and what's going to change that. From what I've been hearing, the post crash professional investor (think hedge fund) influx has ended. If anything they're looking to cash out. I don't think this is speculation for speculation sake. Before the crash it was easy to get loans for that. That isn't the case now. I really don't think Vegas housing prices are being driven by Vegas salaries. If so, they'd never have gotten to these levels.

What seems to be mainly driving it at this point is people are priced out and/or cashing out of LA. So if LV is being driven by the LA market, what's driving that, and is that going to change any time soon? While Vegas is rising, so is LA. I haven't heard about the margin tightening. As long as they just go up in lockstep by percentage, they'll always be pressure on the LV market from LA.

Originally Posted by luckydogg

One thing to keep in mind though about Vegas vs cities like SF, NY, etc is that before the housing bust Vegas was one of the fastest growing cities in the US, and now the trend is back in play again. I read that last year Clark County was the 2nd fastest growing county in the US, (behind only Maricopa/Phoenix metro, which was also one of the fastest growing before). So that new construction has plenty of demand to absorb it. Also Phoenix has a lot of open desert to build out and had way more new construction than Vegas (it has twice the population), yet the prices are comparable to Vegas although they aren't exactly cheap in desirable areas like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley or Ahwatukee. Just as an example there's only 4 houses in Scottsdale for sale not under contract for under $300k. Yet you can still find lots of houses in Henderson (which is somewhat comparable to Scottsdale) for under $300k some of it new construction. So my point is that new construction alone isn't really a good predictor of home prices in general, if demand outstrips supply.

I don't knock you for not buying though, I live in California and won't buy here (still renting myself even though I make 120k a year and could afford a fixer upper or an older starter home). I just don't feel inclined to go into debt and lock myself into a dumpy house that I don't even want to live in, when I know I don't even want to stay here long term. I am much happier owning rentals in Nevada that produce income, and I can move into one later and be perfectly happy living there.

I don't like the fact that many of us seem to have to play musical chairs with regard to housing and where we live these days, but the idea of long term employment isn't what it used to be, and along with rapidly rising/falling/rising housing costs it is forcing people into doing whatever they have to do to deal with it they best they can.

I'll say that I appreciate the respectful tone of this thread, even from those that disagree - that often isn't the case on C-D. I'm in the same boat as you (Luckydogg) and own a few rentals on the east coast that I picked up at low prices. I guess I don't have the stomach for the wild price fluctuations for the Vegas market knowing there's a chance of relocation in a few years - the swings from the past 13 years are mind-boggling and it's not like that where I came from in the Northeast.

[aswontsp]

Originally Posted by Cubicle Dweller

I'll say that I appreciate the respectful tone of this thread, even from those that disagree - that often isn't the case on C-D. I'm in the same boat as you (Luckydogg) and own a few rentals on the east coast that I picked up at low prices. I guess I don't have the stomach for the wild price fluctuations for the Vegas market knowing there's a chance of relocation in a few years - the swings from the past 13 years are mind-boggling and it's not like that where I came from in the Northeast.

The Northeast is stable, old guard where like minded people have been rooted for generations while the Southwest is just the opposite -- thus the volatile market. Where you come from seems like a different country by direct comparison. I know, I'm from the NE too.

[Bulwara Road]

I reckon in Desert Shoes we will see between $180 -$200 per sq ft for single family homes this time next year...

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by airics

No question...it’s definitely being driven by California. Just driving around, look at the amount of California license plates

Keep your eyes on the road and your hands up on the wheel

L.A. woman, Sunday afternoon

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by Bulwara Road

I reckon in Desert Shoes we will see between $180 -$200 per sq ft for single family homes this time next year...

Smaller houses have already hit that, even in less desirable areas

[Michael2016]

I think a lot of people here, who witnessed the last crash got overly scared by the market. As long as the economy is doing overall well and the US not being in a recession, the property market in Vegas will just do fine and go up.
There is no sign of a near recession yet so I don't anything of that trend would change short term. And if there is a recession, it does not need to be a crash, but a mild recession with mildly reduced property market pricing. The crash that happened 2008+ was a scary and global one. Such crashes are not expected to happen one after the other.
Vegas has only one way to go for now. UP!

[corsa71]

What 850k buy a decent home in LV?

[mojavedxer]

Originally Posted by Michael2016

I think a lot of people here, who witnessed the last crash got overly scared by the market. As long as the economy is doing overall well and the US not being in a recession, the property market in Vegas will just do fine and go up.
There is no sign of a near recession yet so I don't anything of that trend would change short term. And if there is a recession, it does not need to be a crash, but a mild recession with mildly reduced property market pricing. The crash that happened 2008+ was a scary and global one. Such crashes are not expected to happen one after the other.
Vegas has only one way to go for now. UP!

I keep hearing from people that believe the market will go south again soon like 2008 and properties will be picked up for next to nothing. I believe that real estate will take a slight hit in the next recession but nothing so drastic that holding for couple of years to regain value.