Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Wrong. As repeatedly documented in this thread, sea level rise is accelerating. The NOAA predicts as much as a foot of sea level rise by 2030. See post 49.
For the past 40 yrs, I have been hearing these gloom and doom predictions for global warming.
Of course none ever come true but no problem, because they always have more with their bought and paid for science.
Just some observations. Woodwell Climate Research Center is not fear mongering, nor is Spencer Glendon, one of the nation's foremost experts on the impact of climate change on investments. They are doing risk assessments of the impact of climate change.
Candidly, Spencer Glendon hasn't repeatedly emphasized the disaster that he expects to result from a major hurricane collapsing the Florida insurance and therefore real estate markets. Obviously, no one pays him to share his research with the public. My hunch is that he felt a moral obligation to put the concept into the public domain, and has no interest in "working" his thesis, as is done by short sellers.
Did you even read this linked CNBC article in post 49. Spencer Glendon had nothing to do with it. And, BTW, I can produce several similar articles. Note that this isn't the product of climate change activists, but of hard-nosed investment managers.
Clearly, climate change scientists looking at the long term predict disastrous impacts, despite your efforts to infer otherwise.
Your chart was from neither Woodwell nor Glendon nor CNBC - the chart that you took the worst case scenario from then exaggerated with "or higher," the tiny one as a sidebar to the article was from a different organization. Defend that.
You are apparently so enamored of Spencer Glendon that you fail to realize there are hundreds, if not thousands, of "experts" in the financial services sector; his voice speaks no louder than any other except possibly to you. Too bad for you, but rather than being "one of the nation's foremost experts" his credentials speak ever so softly. I'm sure if you pay enough to go to one of his speaking engagements you'll be bowled over by the very sound of his self-promoting voice and his "moral obligation."
By the way, how has the worldwide waterfront real estate market fared so far this year?
That link has nothing to do with NOAA...and NOAA did not say that
Why did you say NOAA predicts....when NOAA did no such thing and had nothing to do with that article
Wrong.
Did you read the article linked or study the chart in the article?
<<And the projections capture accelerations in the sea level rise models by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.>>
[b]1 foot in 10 years is over 1 inch a year....each year...for the next 10 years....a foot higher in 10 years
sea level in Florida has not even risen 1 foot in 100 years
Now you're beginning to understand what is meant by rapid sea level acceleration!!! Past history becomes irrelevant as ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica undergo accelerating ice melt, let alone calving, and as ocean heat content sets record after record resulting in increased thermal expansion of the oceans.
Contrary to your claim of non-existent or minimal sea level rise, here's what the Southeast Florida Compact Group said in its 2019 report:
<<About 30 years ago, sea level rise in Florida began accelerating. In 2006, the rate increased again. Now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that sea levels are rising by more than a third of an inch annually along certain parts of the Floridian coast.>>
The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact is a collaboration of the Southeast Florida counties.
<<The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (the Compact) is a partnership between Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach Counties, to work collaboratively to reduce regional greenhouse gas emissions, implement adaptation strategies, and build climate resilience across the Southeast Florida region. >>
So a group of major Florida counties both are reporting a third of an inch of annual sea level rise currently and anticipating the rate of increase reaching over an inch annually by 2030, as you correctly deduced!!!
Congrats!!!!!!
Harold Wanless, one of Florida's leading experts on sea level rise, as quoted in the Miami Herald article:
<<“These numbers are all big enough that you can see that South Florida gets in big trouble quickly,” said Harold Wanless, a University of Miami professor of geology and member of the projections team. “If you look out the window, like the areas in the Keys that are flooding for weeks on end, this is not something that might happen, this is something that is already happening....“
Wanless, who tends to predict higher rates of sea rise, worries that builders and developers will look at the multiple curves and choose the lowest one to build to, rather than some of the higher curves.
He pushed for the inclusion of NOAA’s extreme curve — one Obeysekera said is “a pretty rare scenario with a very low probability” — to show South Floridians the risk they could face if carbon dioxide emissions are allowed to continue unabated.
Of the NOAA intermediate curve, which predicts a little over three feet by 2070, he said, “That’s the lowest one I would even talk about, and I think everything under that is wishful thinking.”>>
Once again, here's Wanless' explanation and forecast of what lies ahead.
<<For South Florida, our future “total relative sea level” rise will include an addition of 15 to 20 percent from projected slowing of the Florida Current/Gulf Stream and 20 percent to 52 percent from redistribution of ocean mass as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt.
Their huge ice masses pull water toward them. As they melt and their mass diminishes, their gravitational attraction diminishes and ocean water redistributes.
This means that South Florida should add 35 percent to 72 percent additional rise to the GMSL projections. The total relative sea-level rise for South Florida by 2046 could thus be 2.7 to 3.4 feet, and within 50 years could be 5.7 to 7.2 feet. >>
Unlike the climate change experts, climate change denialists apparently have no grasp of the impact of increasing ocean heat content on the cryosphere's massive ice sheets.
<<The total heat content of the world’s oceans (OHC) in 2019 was the warmest in recorded human history, according to a January 13 paper by Cheng et al., Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. In the uppermost 2000 meters of the oceans, there were 228 Zetta Joules more heat in 2019 than the 1981−2010 average; 2019 had 25 Zetta Joules more OHC than 2018 (a Zetta Joule is one sextillion Joules-- ten to the 21st power). “We found that 2019 was not only the warmest year on record, it displayed the largest single-year increase of the entire decade, a sobering reminder that human-caused heating of our planet continues unabated,” said Penn State’s Dr. Michael Mann, one of the co-authors. The gain in ocean heat between 2018 and 2019 was about 44 times as great as all the energy used by humans in one year.
More than 90% of the increasing heat from human-caused global warming accumulates in the ocean because of its large heat capacity. >>
The above Scientific American article notes that this massive warming is occurring despite the presence of an extremely weak solar cycle.
<<The remarkable global warmth of 2019 means that the six warmest years on record since 1880 were the last six years—2014 through 2019. The near-record global warmth in 2019 is all the more remarkable since it occurred during the minimum of the weakest solar cycle in 100+ years...>>
A catalyst for even more rapid ice melt and therefore resulting sea level rise is the reported emergence of the sun from its slumber and entry into a new solar cycle.
<< Solar Cycle 25 is now underway and expected to peak with 115 sunspots in July 2025.>>
Unfortunately, only now are scientists studying one of the most critical short-term influences on sea level rise, the Thwaites Glacier.
<<FOR SEVERAL YEARS, scientists have been worried about the retreat and eventual collapse of Thwaites Glacier, a Florida-sized plug that holds back the West Antarctic ice sheet from the Southern Ocean. If Thwaites goes kaput, the resulting catastrophe could raise global sea levels by more than two feet on its own, or by eight feet in combination with melting from nearby glaciers, according to NASA estimates.>>
Modern Americans, even children, understand how rapidly ice melts once temperatures exceed the freezing point of water. For some reason, climate change deniers seem unwilling or unable to extend this herd knowledge to events playing out in the cryosphere.
I've provided an explanation grounded in scientific expertise and empirical evidence.
The reality is that this debate will be settled in the next several years, let alone few decades. If the scientists are correct, the impact of accelerating sea level rise will be increasingly obvious to all of mankind, not just to Floridians. With its low elevations above sea level, Florida of course is extraordinarily vulnerable to sea level rise. How much will Florida be diminished as its beaches and its extraordinary coastal nature preserves are increasingly inundated??? If the scientific projections are accurate, the majority of Floridians and Americans likely will be shocked by what lies ahead in even the near future.
As an advocate for scientific expertise, I believe, unlike you and other deniers, that climate change is NOT a hoax and we face catastrophe.
Your chart was from neither Woodwell nor Glendon nor CNBC - the chart that you took the worst case scenario from then exaggerated with "or higher," the tiny one as a sidebar to the article was from a different organization. Defend that.
You are apparently so enamored of Spencer Glendon that you fail to realize there are hundreds, if not thousands, of "experts" in the financial services sector; his voice speaks no louder than any other except possibly to you. Too bad for you, but rather than being "one of the nation's foremost experts" his credentials speak ever so softly. I'm sure if you pay enough to go to one of his speaking engagements you'll be bowled over by the very sound of his self-promoting voice and his "moral obligation."
By the way, how has the worldwide waterfront real estate market fared so far this year?
IMO, a very confused response.
In essence, I reported a warning about a great peril to the Florida housing market by one of America's foremost financial experts on the impact of climate change. Somebody who advises institutions managing trillions of dollars of assets is worth taking seriously IMO.
The reality is that Glendon's investment experience and the financial heft of his current clients does mean that he speaks with much greater authority than any other climate change financial expert of whom i have familiarity. What experts do you offer to contradict Glendon's warning???
In actuality, Glendon's views are becoming very mainstream in the financial community, as evidenced by the CNBC article and the following linked articles.
<<BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, says that it will now make climate change central to its investment considerations. And not just for environmental reasons — but because it believes that climate change is reshaping the world's financial system.>>
Shouldn't housing investors also make climate change central to their evaluations???
Deal with it or ignore it. I don't care. I was responding to the OP and hopefully the information provided is of some merit to the OP as Glendon's view is not unique and clearly is in the public domain as it has been reported by the Florida media.
In essence, I reported a warning about a great peril to the Florida housing market by one of America's foremost financial experts on the impact of climate change. Somebody who advises institutions managing trillions of dollars of assets is worth taking seriously IMO.
The reality is that Glendon's investment experience and the financial heft of his current clients does mean that he speaks with much greater authority than any other climate change financial expert of whom i have familiarity. What experts do you offer to contradict Glendon's warning???
In actuality, Glendon's views are becoming very mainstream in the financial community, as evidenced by the CNBC article and the following linked articles.
<<BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, says that it will now make climate change central to its investment considerations. And not just for environmental reasons — but because it believes that climate change is reshaping the world's financial system.>>
Shouldn't housing investors also make climate change central to their evaluations???
Deal with it or ignore it. I don't care. I was responding to the OP and hopefully the information provided is of some merit to the OP as Glendon's view is not unique and clearly is in the public domain as it has been reported by the Florida media.
Claiming that Glendon "speaks with much greater authority than any other climate change financial expert" without an iota of support makes it solely your opinion. Simply because you have long ago disappeared down that rabbit hole don't expect others to follow. You also like to claim that one "Doctor Doom" is a foremost researcher and prognosticator of the drowning of Florida. And yet you call my response confused - amazing!
Feel free to put all your eggs in the basket carried like a trophy by those scorned by serious academics. Black Rock is a very successful organization that considers everything possible in deciding where to put their money, why is their observation of climate change anything on which to hang your hat and what does it have to do with your boy Glendon?
With all your oddball punctuation, irrelevant quotes and citations, I note that you failed to respond to my question regarding current market conditions for waterfront property worldwide. Why am I not surprised?
Wrong. As repeatedly documented in this thread, sea level rise is accelerating. The NOAA predicts as much as a foot of sea level rise by 2030. See post 49.
12ft rise out past 70 years on some parts of the globe. Some peeps have their heads in the sand fred.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
