[WRnative]

Spencer Glendon issued his warning about the risks that a deteriorating home insurance market posed to Florida homeowners in May of 2019.


https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2019/...mpacts-worsen/


Earlier this week, a Bloomberg Businessweek article suggested that Glendon's concerns were becoming reality.


<<Many of these newcomers may not know what they’re getting into. They’ve calculated the cost of their house, their mortgage, their car payments, their property taxes, and their home insurance. What they almost certainly haven’t taken into account is the reinsurance market—where insurance companies go to share risk. The peculiar dynamics of reinsurance and climate have inched the state of Florida toward the precipice of an insurance disaster. Simply put, homeowners’ premiums are set to become very, very expensive....


In 2019 the average cost of reinsurance coverage rose 15%, according to a report by Hyperion X Analytics. This year it climbed an average 26.1%. Insurers shoveled their added costs onto consumers.>>


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...very-expensive


This BusinessWeek article delves into the microeconomics of the Florida insurance market in much greater detail than did Glendon, who was more focused on the macroeconomics of climate change. The article is must read for prospective Florida homeowners just for its discussions of the impacts caused by 1) the erosion of the global insurance-linked derivatives market, 2) assignment of benefits (AOB) claims and homeowner lawsuits, and 3) the shunning of the Florida insurance market by America's largest insurers.



This warning in the article sounds as if written by Glendon:


<<For now, with record-low mortgage interest rates and a steady stream of people moving to the state, there are new buyers willing to shoulder a house’s carrying costs. Should enthusiasm wane, whether from an economic downturn or a devastating hurricane, homeowners could be saddled with a home that’s too expensive to keep and impossible to sell.>>


Some combination of accelerating sea level rise and "super-cat" (search for "Berkshire" and "super-cat" for an explanation) hurricane losses likely will push coastal real estate markets, especially in low-lying Florida, over the precipice. The collapse appears to be at hand, according to the following Miami Herald article, despite the "don't worry" assurances by all of the pseudo-, self-proclaimed experts whose often deceitful posts litter this forum.



<<Major insurance companies are raising windstorm premiums in Florida as much as 33 percent and dropping tens of thousands of customers, signaling an end to the nearly decade-long lull in prices. At the same time, some companies also are canceling thousands of home policies to reduce risks of corporate losses....


Some homeowners are already getting new, higher bills. But Neal expects the real shock to be felt next year, when rate increases start to show up in jacked-up monthly escrow charges in home mortgages, which typically cover annual insurance costs.
>>


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/wea...243766772.html


Note in the above article that the insurance industry wants to limit further the ability of homeowners to contest insurance damage awards. Such limitations should not be attractive to prospective homeowners.


The current shock to the Florida homeowners insurance market was triggered partially by less than $30 billion of insured losses:


<<After a decade without a landfall hurricane, Hurricane Irma in 2017 caused $17 billion in damage and Hurricane Michael in 2018 caused $12 billion in damage, ending an era of “soft pricing.”>>


https://www.thecentersquare.com/flor...c6a112a14.html


Imagine the impact if a major hurricane hits a major population center resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars in insured losses.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by kokonutty

You understand that the person to whom I was responding was claiming alarmist worst case scenario models of sea level rise as the only outcome in response to the OP who is at retirement age and planning a possible move to Florida, right? They are not apt to be affected by changes seventy to a hundred years in the future as you have recognized.

Rather than focusing on outlier doomsday scenarios I believe those considering a move to Florida might be better served by referencing data and projections from more mainstream scientific communities and, more immediately, recognizing the elevation of any particular property or area in which they have interest.

I don't bother with his post. Not sure why he is fixed on FL so much since he lives well up north. Just ignore and move on. Like i typed, most all of you will be dead and gone by the time the fat lady sings. Rise won't happen over nite dwight but will be a problem years away.

[kokonutty]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I don't bother with his post. Not sure why he is fixed on FL so much since he lives well up north. Just ignore and move on. Like i typed, most all of you will be dead and gone by the time the fat lady sings. Rise won't happen over nite dwight but will be a problem years away.

He also apparently now believes that the insurance industry looking to limit its exposure is news and that wind damage changes in underwriting is pertinent to sea level change.

[WRnative]

Prospective home buyers can't even count on keeping insurance coverage as hard-pressed insurers in Florida seek to limit risks and exposure.

Nasty. I've never heard of such a regulation.

<<Under state law, insurers have 90 days after a new customers signs a contract to verify that the information that the customer put in their application is correct and to determine if the risk is worth covering. During those first 90 days, the insurer can cancel the policy for any reason and refund any premium that was paid.>>

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/busines...vfi-story.html

During this 90-day period, can an insurer cancel a few days before the anticipated arrival of a major hurricane? If so, I don't believe that I would purchase a home in Florida during hurricane season. And I would want to make certain that my policy didn't expire during hurricane season, to limit the risk of a non-renewal after insurers perhaps become financially burdened by storm losses before the expiration date.

Also, it appears after reading the above story that insurers could step up "inspections," and subsequent "remediation" and cancellation orders in the months before hurricane season if they needed to reduce Florida exposure. I suspect that it may be increasingly tough to obtain home insurance during hurricane season in Florida.

[WRnative]

Prospective Florida home buyers also need to consider the need to buy flood insurance, even if their new home isn't in a currently designated flood zone, as victims of Hurricane Sally are learning.

<<She and her neighbor, Wayne Quarrier, didn’t have flood insurance.

“This neighborhood, unfortunately, has never been declared a flood zone,” Quarrier said.>>

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florid...rricane-sally/

[LKJ1988]

I am right on the gulf dwight and have no flood or HOI.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I am right on the gulf dwight and have no flood or HOI.

Tampa Bay, right?


I suspect you couldn't buy any wind policy, and perhaps no flood policy for the next several weeks. See the map in this article:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...lopment/820663


Powerful October hurricanes like Michael in 2018 and Wilma in 2005 smashed into western Florida, but not Tampa! Right?


Good luck!

[hardtail]

Originally Posted by Fredesch

In my area the record low for the year is 60 degrees or so.

The record low for Ormand Beach is 15. Average night temp in winter is 50. Not sure where you got that 60 number at.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Tampa Bay, right?


I suspect you couldn't buy any wind policy, and perhaps no flood policy for the next several weeks. See the map in this article:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...lopment/820663


Powerful October hurricanes like Michael in 2018 and Wilma in 2005 smashed into western Florida, but not Tampa! Right?


Good luck!

Tampa bay ray is not the gulf. I lived less than a mile from TIA since 1963 til 2004. Then bought up tons of homes in the west Pasco county area right on the gulf to a half mile inland. When the big crash came in 2008 you could not give away these homes for 20k. Back in 2010 and 2011 it cost 5k a year for HOI to insure homes worth under 40k west of US19 on the gulf, flood was still not very bad at that time. Homes that were worth 600k and up were worth under 200k in 2011 and the cost to insure them was 20K+ a year for HOI.

Now flood Ins prices are getting super high. I am all over the gulf coast buying up homes and now i am 140 miles north of Pasco county.

I go bare on my homes with no Ins at all and have saved a million + over 16 years. The west coast around the Tampa area has not had a hurricane since 1921.

I called for a super storm months ahead time back in 2018 since the gulf temps were super heated due to insane above normal temps in Sept and Oct. I called for a CAT5 and we got it with Michael. It would have been the strongest storm ever if it had 200 more miles of water to work with and or 24 hours. We would have seen gust to 230mph. Michale did nothing at all to the Tampa area or west coast. Super strong storms wrap up tight so anything 200 miles or more to the east or west side see no action. Weak storms have a bigger wind field.

I don't bother with any Ins or health Ins. Just a rip off scam sam.

So the west coast of FL has not seen any real action in 99 years other than the tiny core system back in 04 that was headed to Tampa and took a dive to the northeast and hit 110.23 miles well south of the Tampa area.

Tampa got no weather out of Charlie since the system was so tiny that the core strong winds were only about 30 miles from the center of the eye sly. I was so upset we missed the action.

It is as if a force field is over the Tampa area as no tropical weather ever bothers us. But our number is coming due for a super CAT5 to come up the pipe from the Cuba arae with winds over 220mph.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by hardtail

The record low for Ormand Beach is 15. Average night temp in winter is 50. Not sure where you got that 60 number at.

Yikes tike that 60 figure is way off. Record for Tampa was 18f in Dec 1962 before my time and 19f in Dec of 83 on Xmas. We had a high of 38f Xmas day of 83. Now we never see a 38F for a low anymore it seems. Warmed up so much since i started keeping record in 1978.