[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Charlie Allnut

I just want to know when the sea level rise will reach 26.5 miles West of Jupiter, Florida?
Asking for a friend.

Within 842.12 years.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

If the predictions were true, then why are 30 year mortgages being given out and more condos being built along the coast? Usually the folks who live there are democrats or liberals which is ironic.

..and people sure as hell wouldn't be buying a 3/2..that needs a lot of work....on the water...for over $2 million

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by Wawo

https://shrinke.me/0iqm

This post is more informative than anything WRNative has posted in this thread so far.

[LKJ1988]

Nothing to worry about for a while. I am right on the gulf and no flood or HOI Ins so i am not gonna worry murry.

[Charlie Allnut]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Within 842.12 years.

OK thanks. Time to buy some cattle.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Charlie Allnut

OK thanks. Time to buy some cattle.

You can get some cracker versions and have plenty of time. The state has been under water before and will again.

[WRnative]

Much as with unimaginable wildfires in the West, persistent droughts that are shrinking the Great Salt Lake and increasing discussions of draining Lake Powell, disastrous heat domes in the Pacific Northwest, and now mega-tornadoes in the southeast as tornado alley moves east of the Mississippi River, coastal residents soon may deal with not accelerating sea level rise, but abrupt sea level rise. That's the consequence facing coastal residents and states with the news about the likely rapid disintegration of the ice shelf that dams the Thwaites "doomsday" glacier in Antarctica.

As noted in post 127, this ice shelf dam could shatter within 3 to 5 years.

<<Scientists have discovered a series of worrying weaknesses in the ice shelf holding back one of Antarctica’s most dangerous glaciers, suggesting that this important buttress against sea level rise could shatter within the next three to five years.>>

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...?ocid=msedgntp

<<The chain reaction following the collapse of the eastern section of the glacier could threaten coastal residents around the world, many of whom may be unprepared for a sudden spike in sea level, which has risen slowly due to climate change since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution....

The Thwaites Glacier has been melting due to a combination of warm air and water temperatures, caused at least partly by climate change, making it more unstable. Between the 1980s and 2017, it lost 600 billion tons of ice. As the oceans continue to warm, the glacier is expected to become more unmoored to land, increasing its risk of collapse.

“Things are evolving really rapidly here,” Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado Boulder, said during Monday's news conference. “It’s daunting....”

”Each new satellite image we get, we see deeper and longer fractures,” Pettit said, adding, “What we’re seeing already is enough to be worried about. Thwaites is kind of a monster.”>>

https://www.yahoo.com/news/antarctic...220236266.html

As noted in post 127, sea level rise in this decade may increase from a fraction of an inch annually to an inch or more annually by 2020. Calving of the Thwaites glacier will add to accelerating melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the initial stages of ice melt of the massive Antarctic ice sheet.

For years scientists have worried about "abrupt" sea level rise, but now the prospect seems more closely at hand.

<<Eric Rignot at the University of California, Irvine says that study underscores the possible speed of ice sheet melt and collapse. “Once these processes start to kick in,” he says, “they’re very fast.”

The Earth has seen sudden climate change and rapid sea level rise before. At the end of the planet’s last glaciation, starting about 14,000 years ago, sea levels rose by more than 13 feet a century as the huge North American ice sheet melted. But researchers are hesitant about predicting similarly rapid climate shifts in our future given the huge stakes involved: The rapid collapse of today’s polar ice sheets would erase densely populated parts of our coastlines.

“Today, we’re struggling with 3 millimeters [0.1 inch] per year [of sea level rise],” says Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, co-author of one of the more sobering new studies. “We’re talking about centimeters [2.54 centimeters per inch] per year. That’s really tough. At that point your engineering can’t keep up; you’re down to demolition and rebuilding.” >>

https://e360.yale.edu/features/abrup...and_antarctica

<<But Antarctica is vast — 1.5 times the size of the United States, with ice three miles thick in places — and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by roughly 200 feet.

The larger, eastern half lies mostly above sea level and remains very cold; researchers have typically considered its ice stable, though even that view is beginning to change. The sizeable western half [e.g., Thwaites Glacier] of the Antarctic, by contrast, has its base lying below sea level, and holds some of the fastest warming areas on the planet. “You look at West Antarctica and you think: How come it’s still there?” says Rignot. >>

Floridian John Englander, author of "Moving to Higher Ground," explains how scientists haven't yet quantified Australia in official sea level rise estimates because of the lack of empirically derived projections. Even though this likely will change over this decade, as of now, Englander writes:

<<....Antarctica becomes an asterisk. So, unfortunately, even with good science, we’re getting bad information. Planners, architects, and engineers don’t realize that our current pathway of warming could result in a lot more sea level rise. So what’s likely? A foot or two by midcentury is now realistic, as guidance.>>

https://commonedge.org/we-must-begin...ea-level-rise/

The above article shows a graph of carbon dioxide levels against global temperatures and sea level. Now at 417 parts per million, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are far higher than at any point in the last 500,000 years.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

A chart in this interview (free registration required) of Englander documents the acceleration of sea level rise in recent decades (see the steepening slopes).

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/communi...op4-story.html

Sadly, natural feedback loops may overwhelm any eventual attempt by mankind to reduce greenhouse emissions, such as Arctic warming unleashing the massive amounts of methane and carbon dioxide stored in permafrost.

<<Of all the biomes with forests, the boreal forest is projected to experience the largest temperature shift. So far, temperatures have shifted up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and by the end of the century temperatures could increase by 11 degrees Celsius—a lot for an ecosystem that is generally below freezing.>>

https://daily.jstor.org/climate-chan...boreal-forest/

<<In recent years, climate scientists have warned thawing permafrost in Siberia may be a “methane time bomb” detonating slowly. Now, a peer-reviewed study using satellite imagery and a review by an international organization are warning that warming temperatures in the far northern reaches of Russia are releasing massive measures of methane—a potent greenhouse gas with considerably more warming power than carbon dioxide.>>

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart...ane-180978381/

While methane is a much more consequential greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, just this week we're learning that nitrous oxide is even much more potent and also is being released by thawing permafrost.

<<Here the researchers studied the Lena and Kolyma Rivers in northeast Siberia, finding that as the permafrost melts along the edges of the water, it releases between 10 and 100 times the amount of nitrous oxide that would typically be expected from permafrost thaw....

Nitrous oxide is produced by microbes in the soil. While the gas isn't as abundant as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, it has a far more significant effect in terms of temperatures: It's almost 300 times stronger than carbon dioxide as a warming agent over a 100-year period.>>

https://www.sciencealert.com/scienti...ian-permafrost

For those of us who pay attention to the mounting empirical evidence and scientific analysis, abrupt sea level rise understandably seems inevitable, and likely initiated in this decade.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

We won't see any real big changes until 70 years out.

As explained in post 148, this unsubstantiated statement is ridiculously optimistic.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by WRnative

As explained in post 148, this unsubstantiated statement is ridiculously optimistic.

This is your 1st post I've read all the way through...nice job!

I wish you'd send all your data to the politicians and hollywood types that own mansions along the coastlines.

They are obviously all unaware of their pending doom.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by WRnative

As explained in post 148, this unsubstantiated statement is ridiculously optimistic.

My research knows the best learch. Lived here all my life and kept records since the 70's and only a 1.88" rise so far. But my snow ball effect is taking place now as more ice melts and more dark earth and water soak up heat from the sun. The rate just get faster over time nate. So while now we don't see a big change that will start to change over the years. But we are good to go for our lifetimes, but peeps out past 70 years to 140 years are gonna deal with a diff world as most sea life dies out and once sea temps run away the jet stream will go away for good. Then it is lights out for everyone.