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By the way, my final prediction is that Clinton takes Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Sanders takes Ilinois in a VERY close contest(within 3% margin) and Missouri by a decent(5-10%) margin. Clinton expands her delegate lead by up to 100. That would make her total delegate lead near or over 300 which will be enough of a cushion to survive the next set of states before NY and PA polls where she can re-expand her delegate lead again to a mathematically unattainable amount for Sanders(unless he wins CA by some insane 30% margin which would close the delegate lead alone).
So yeah, 3 states for Clinton, 2 for sanders, though Sanders can win up to 3 states and Clinton can realistically win up to 4, and even a very small chance of a sweep.
Looking back at my prediction....I underestimated the Clinton support in every state except maybe NC. Clinton wins 4 with 1 pending because of a potential revote, but it does look like she sweeps the night. At this point, her delegate lead is now near 350....it's over, however it probably won't be a mathematical impossibility for Sanders to catch Hillary until Mid April when NY and PA votes.
Also, I have to say, Monmouth did very well with polling in Ohio. Nailed the +14 and the fact that Sander supporters crossed over to the GOP to vote for Kasich which hurt him big time.
At this point, we go into Sanders territory and he'll pick up some wins over the next few weeks and eat away at some of the gargantuan delegate lead Hillary built up, but I can't see him dropping the delegate lead by more 150 before the New York and PA primaries. So by New York, she still has a healthy 200 delegate lead, then re-expands that another 50-100 delegates where by then, it's mathematically impossible for Sanders to catch her UNLESS he wins CA by some ridiculous 70-30 margin or higher(and even then, it's a good possibility her delegate lead will still be high enough to take the huge CA hit).
Clinton tonight has checkmated Sanders. This was the night Clinton has all but secured the nomination barring some ridiculous scenarios occurring or she is indicted(highly doubt it or she wouldn't have ran).
Looking back at my prediction....I underestimated the Clinton support in every state except maybe NC. Clinton wins 4 with 1 pending because of a potential revote, but it does look like she sweeps the night. At this point, her delegate lead is now near 350....it's over, however it probably won't be a mathematical impossibility for Sanders to catch Hillary until Mid April when NY and PA votes.
Also, I have to say, Monmouth did very well with polling in Ohio. Nailed the +14 and the fact that Sander supporters crossed over to the GOP to vote for Kasich which hurt him big time.
At this point, we go into Sanders territory and he'll pick up some wins over the next few weeks and eat away at some of the gargantuan delegate lead Hillary built up, but I can't see him dropping the delegate lead by more 150 before the New York and PA primaries. So by New York, she still has a healthy 200 delegate lead, then re-expands that another 50-100 delegates where by then, it's mathematically impossible for Sanders to catch her UNLESS he wins CA by some ridiculous 70-30 margin or higher(and even then, it's a good possibility her delegate lead will still be high enough to take the huge CA hit).
Clinton tonight has checkmated Sanders. This was the night Clinton has all but secured the nomination barring some ridiculous scenarios occurring or she is indicted(highly doubt it or she wouldn't have ran).
There is no need for revote or recount in Missouri since the delegates are almost evenly split anyways. Revote/recount only matters in winner-take-all.
Looking back at my prediction....I underestimated the Clinton support in every state except maybe NC. Clinton wins 4 with 1 pending because of a potential revote, but it does look like she sweeps the night. At this point, her delegate lead is now near 350....it's over, however it probably won't be a mathematical impossibility for Sanders to catch Hillary until Mid April when NY and PA votes.
Also, I have to say, Monmouth did very well with polling in Ohio. Nailed the +14 and the fact that Sander supporters crossed over to the GOP to vote for Kasich which hurt him big time.
At this point, we go into Sanders territory and he'll pick up some wins over the next few weeks and eat away at some of the gargantuan delegate lead Hillary built up, but I can't see him dropping the delegate lead by more 150 before the New York and PA primaries. So by New York, she still has a healthy 200 delegate lead, then re-expands that another 50-100 delegates where by then, it's mathematically impossible for Sanders to catch her UNLESS he wins CA by some ridiculous 70-30 margin or higher(and even then, it's a good possibility her delegate lead will still be high enough to take the huge CA hit).
Clinton tonight has checkmated Sanders. This was the night Clinton has all but secured the nomination barring some ridiculous scenarios occurring or she is indicted(highly doubt it or she wouldn't have ran).
She'll win Arizona, and might get some delegates in the caucus states (Washington state will be interesting) but Sanders won't really make a dent. Hillary will probably be 800+ delegates away from the nomination, and there's 731 delegates up for grabs in the month of April. I really thought this would be over by next month, but it's probably going to go through Cali. If I remember correctly, in 2008, California was early in the primary season so having Cali in June doesn't help her.
There is no need for revote or recount in Missouri since the delegates are almost evenly split anyways. Revote/recount only matters in winner-take-all.
Agreed. Even if the vote percentage switched, the recount process takes a while and it's not going to affect the perception that Hillary swept all 5 states last night. And even if one or two delegates changed, it's not going to come down to that.
And it's a closed primary, which would tend to favor her as she is consistently winning registered Democrats. Even if Bernie won, it would likely be very close rather than the plus 10-15 he needs to win every state from now on, and that means no net delegate benefit for him.
That seems to indicate a Hillary win there. 50% then you assume at least 40% from undecideds plus it's closed so it's only registered democrats. We could see a decent margin win for her for there. Bernie couldn't even win the open/semi-open primaries yesterday so I can't see him winning Arizona if that poll is somewhat correct. It's very possible she could expand her delegate lead next Tuesday.
That seems to indicate a Hillary win there. 50% then you assume at least 40% from undecideds plus it's closed so it's only registered democrats. We could see a decent margin win for her for there. Bernie couldn't even win the open/semi-open primaries yesterday so I can't see him winning Arizona if that poll is somewhat correct. It's very possible she could expand her delegate lead next Tuesday.
Yes, I think you are correct, and AZ has more delegates than the other two states that night combined.
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