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Obama has solid 239 electoral votes with many likely swinging towards him, I see it very difficult for willard, to make matters worse for the gop, by 2016 Texas population will be > 50% minority, then the gop will never again win in texas, and for that reason it will be really hard that the gop will ever win again...
Obama is at 48% in the average of the polls you linked to... that is not good for an incumbent. Furthermore - even worse news for Obama - his approval rating is below 50% in the vast majority of PA polls, if not every PA poll I've seen that asks whether respondents approve or disapprove of how he is handling his job.
That being said - no Republican has won Pennsylvania in a presidential election since 1988. Romney does not need to win PA to win the election. The fact that Obama is at 48% in the poll average and his approval is below 50% in what is a Democratic-leaning state is very bad news for Obama.
Funny thing is, the governorship and the G.A. change hands a lot more often than on the presidential level. Our Dems are quite moderate overall, but our Republicans range from moderate to conservative. We're the opposite of Southern states. They tend to vote reliably Republican in presidential elections, but prefer Democratic governors
Obama has solid 239 electoral votes with many likely swinging towards him, I see it very difficult for willard, to make matters worse for the gop, by 2016 Texas population will be > 50% minority, then the gop will never again win in texas, and for that reason it will be really hard that the gop will ever win again...
The last six polls had Walker up by an average of 7.5%, which is roughly the actually election result. Exit polls of those same voters showed +9 for Obama v. Romney.
Actually the exit poll had obama by 7 (which the Left is desperately clinging to). The exit poll had the race a "coin flip", some said 50-50% as the last exit poll came out. In actuality, the "coin flip" was 52%-48% Walker, which is NOT a coin flip at all.
So the exit poll is wrong, but the Left grabs the straw that says obama is still leading.
The numbers have been adjusted based on the actual vote...at worse, it's a TIE, at best, Romney has a small lead.
The exit poll from Pennsylvania four years ago showed turnout of 44D/37R/18I. The sample for today’s new poll showing O out to a double-digit lead is … 50D/37R/10I. Anyone think that three years of watching Hopenchange in action is actually going to turn more Democrats out this year than last time?
I've lost faith in all polls at this point. Will I keep an eye on them for reference? Sure. But I think there's enough objective evidence out there to suggest that polling is an art, not a science. The Walker recall emphasized this point pretty clearly.
The Marquette Law School that did some Wisconsin polling (in late May) was spot on with their polling. The Democrats were mad at them when they published their results.
"May 30: Wisconsin Democrats are firing back at the latest Marquette University Law School poll of the state recall election, which put Republican Gov. Scott Walker ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 7-point margin — in an effort to tamp down negative public perception as they head into the election’s final week. “Clearly this poll is out of step with everything else that is out there, and clearly with the political reality,” state Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said Wednesday on a conference call with reporters. “There have been three polls out in the last few days that have shown a dead heat, clearly a competitive race.”
Right- keep hoping. The Obama electoral count at this time is simply re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Obama has already lost, given the economy and unemployment situation which he was unable to change.
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