Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Dallas, Tyler: vehicles, subway)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by DPatel304

It could even be more than a factor of ten.

"Could be" is a very low standard. 10x seems to be what antibody tests and various expert estimates have pegged the number at. Maybe it's 5x, maybe it's 15x. But you can't just guess and say "maybe it's higher, so let's go for the herd immunity approach."

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

I think it is. If (and its an IF) NY, Chicago, Detroit, etc. open up and the virus doesnt spike, that means infections are far above and beyond what we thought. Thats a good thing though.

That is a very hasty conclusion to draw. There are lots of things that go into whether the virus spikes or not, so you can't say that 50% or more of the population in a given city must have the virus just because there wsan't a spike when it opened.

[DPatel304]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

I think it is. If (and its an IF) NY, Chicago, Detroit, etc. open up and the virus doesnt spike, that means infections are far above and beyond what we thought. Thats a good thing though.

Yes, that's my hope as well. Like you said though, it's a big 'IF'. New York would surely be the ultimate test because even with everyone being careful, it's next to impossible to completely social distance there.

The fact that cases seem to be on the decline in New York despite the fact that we had a couple weeks of protesting is promising me to me. Either protesting doesn't really spread the virus all that much OR there are a lot of people who already have antibodies.

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

No, it wouldn't. Herd immunity has nothing to do with transmission rates or masks. It is a mathematical notion that relates to the number of vectors (people who can pass the virus) needed in order for a virus to effectively spread.

Imagine 100% of the population quarantined completely but only three people in America had the virus. There would be no herd immunity, but there also wouldn't be transmission. Things like masks affect transmission, but they don't have anything to do with herd immunity. On the other end of the spectrum, if 98% of the population had already had the virus and was immune, and people walked around sneezing on each other all day, the virus wouldn't spread very far.....that is herd immunity.

People who advocate for herd immunity are really just advocating for everyone to get the virus.

But aren't we reducing the number of vectors with the current precautions? If someone decides to completely isolate and stay home, they are no longer a vector, correct?

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

"

That is a very hasty conclusion to draw. There are lots of things that go into whether the virus spikes or not, so you can't say that 50% or more of the population in a given city must have the virus just because there wsan't a spike when it opened.

Its just an estimate. Im not in power and a wear a mask anytime Im not at home, in my car, or running outside so I dont think having that opinion will draw harm to anyone.

But I do agree with you. Herd immunity would take far to long and kill far too many for it to be a viable solution. If we dont have a vaccine by the time herd immunity is upon us, we would be screwed beyond recognition. It could kill .5% of the global population and destroy 20% of the global economy.

[serger]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

No, it wouldn't. Herd immunity has nothing to do with transmission rates or masks. It is a mathematical notion that relates to the number of vectors (people who can pass the virus) needed in order for a virus to effectively spread.

Imagine 100% of the population quarantined completely but only three people in America had the virus. There would be no herd immunity, but there also wouldn't be transmission. Things like masks affect transmission, but they don't have anything to do with herd immunity. On the other end of the spectrum, if 98% of the population had already had the virus and was immune, and people walked around sneezing on each other all day, the virus wouldn't spread very far.....that is herd immunity.

People who advocate for herd immunity are really just advocating for everyone to get the virus.

Well, herd immunity is achieved when the virus replacement number falls bellow 1.0. For that to happen the susceptible population fraction needs to be
s < 1/contact number

For highly infections stuff like Measles, the contact number is 14-15, so you need to have only about 6% susceptible hence 94% would need to be immune.

For covid that number is probably 2.5-3.5 (if no measures), so 60-70% are needed for herd immunity.
Now, counter measures e.g. masks, distancing, etc. drop the contact number so you can have have herd immunity at lower percentage immune, but that assumes that the measures will persist.

Now, it is of course more complicated, the contact number (with no measures in place) will depend on the locality. In a place like NYC, it would be intrinsically higher than in DFW metro for instance.

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by DPatel304

Yes, that's my hope as well. Like you said though, it's a big 'IF'. New York would surely be the ultimate test because even with everyone being careful, it's next to impossible to completely social distance there.

The fact that cases seem to be on the decline in New York despite the fact that we had a couple weeks of protesting is promising me to me. Either protesting doesn't really spread the virus all that much OR there are a lot of people who already have antibodies.



But aren't we reducing the number of vectors with the current precautions? If someone decides to completely isolate and stay home, they are no longer a vector, correct?

There is a much higher rate of mask usage there than Texas.

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

Its just an estimate. Im not in power and a wear a mask anytime Im not at home, in my car, or running outside so I dont think having that opinion will draw harm to anyone.

But I do agree with you. Herd immunity would take far to long and kill far too many for it to be a viable solution. If we dont have a vaccine by the time herd immunity is upon us, we would be screwed beyond recognition. It could kill .5% of the global population and destroy 20% of the global economy.

We may not even need a vaccine. With the flattening the curve strategy, we have bought some time to improve on treatments and reduce mortality. In Colorado, they found a 30% reduction deaths from March to May for hospitalized patients. They were able to reduce hospitalization time, so they can free more capacity for more patients.

Colorado’s COVID-19 patients fared better in May than at pandemic’s start, hospital data shows
Death rate for hospitalized patients dropped from more than 15% in March and April to about 10.5% in May.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/06/2...hosptial-data/

Colorado patients who contracted the novel coronavirus in May fared better than those infected in March, and that’s at least partly due to new knowledge their doctors gained about how to care for them, according to a report issued Tuesday by seven health systems.

The death rate for hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Colorado dropped from more than 15% in March and April to about 10.5% in May. The health systems didn’t run a statistical analysis to rule out random fluctuations or changes in the patient population, but increasing knowledge likely played a role, said Dr. William Neff, chief medical officer at UCHealth.

“Clearly there was a change in the way we were able to care for the patients,” he said during a conference call with reporters Tuesday.

The average hospital stay also fell from about 12 days to 7 days over that period. COVID-19 patients who needed ventilators spent more time in the hospital than other patients, but their average stay also was shorter in May than in March, the earliest days of the pandemic.

[PriscillaVanilla]

Originally Posted by move4ward

There is a much higher rate of mask usage there than Texas.

In Collin County, lots of people won't wear masks. And not only that, they give dirty looks to people who are wearing them.

[sanz7887]

Originally Posted by PriscillaVanilla

In Collin County, lots of people won't wear masks. And not only that, they give dirty looks to people who are wearing them.

agree with you. I was at a garage with a mask on and all the folks looked at me like i have come from another planet

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

With today's numbers factored in, Texas' 7-day moving average for deaths stands at 35. The record high is 38. I hope this does not indicate that a latent community spread is moving into more vulnerable populations.

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

With today's numbers factored in, Texas' 7-day moving average for deaths stands at 35. The record high is 38. I hope this does not indicate that a latent community spread is moving into more vulnerable populations.

That must be the 7 day total. There are only 0-6 deaths a day.