[wavehunter007]

Even if all the stars lineup (and the odds are they will not)….most of interior Connecticut will only see about 2 to 3 inches of snow before the warm air surges in and changes to a mix of rain and snow. This will melt much of what is on the ground at that point. For the I-95 corrider…a slushy 1 inch might fall, but all areas from NYC to New London (and Long Island) will turn to rain according to NWS upton this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...


PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. A BLEND OF NAM/CMC
GLOBAL/ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ALL BUT
NYC/SOUTHERN LI/COASTAL SE CT BEGINS A AS A PERIOD OF SNOW. WHILE
COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW IN THESE OTHER AREAS AT THE VERY
BEGINNING WOULD EXPECT MAINLY IF NOT ALL RAIN THERE. WITH A DECENT
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD AT THE START..EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
COOL AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. USED A BLEND OF MET GUIDANCE
WITH NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...WEIGHED TOWARDS THE
COLDER VALUE OVERALL. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE READINGS GET OUT OF
THE 30S WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A FEW PLACES IN NYC/LONG ISLAND COULD
SEE HIGHS AROUND 40. FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MET
GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES.

WARMER AIR BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS FROM SW TO NE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SE CT THE LAST AREA TO SEE
PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW (OUTSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE
COAST). EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT...THAT WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS
SHOULD SEE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX WITH THE SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE INTERIOR ZONES CHANGE TO A MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ACROSS MY NORTHERN
TIER OF ZONES FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL COMBINED IMPACT OF THE SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN...AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE ZONES FROM
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE AREAS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE S OF THE WATCH...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED AS WELL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY A GLAZE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...BUT NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DO SO
AT THIS TIME. LONG ISLAND/NYC COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS TO GET STARTED...BUT MOSTLY
WILL SEE JUST RAIN.

[Cambium]

Looks like Upton had to flop back. I been watching them for many years and its just utterly insanity how they forecast. Why cant they just go with a majority of the models instead of using politics and personal opinion?

And this is nothing... we all seen with bigger events they dont put out enough totals until hours before.

First they say no snow in forecast area, now they bring snow to the coast and give 4-5" for northern interior.

[Cambium]

You guys need to have a heads up on a possible Ice Storm as well in the whole event.

If the cold air becomes trapped at the surface and the warm layer above moves in, thats a recipe for disaster. Snow will accumulate first then the ice would.

Just .25" of ice can cause tree limbs to break and undriveable conditions.

This is not something we can know before hand but just keep it in mind. Thursday morning commute might not happen for many areas. Lets hope it stays snow or just mixes if anything.

Forecast has a trace of Ice for Fairfield, north of I-84 has .25" of ice.

[wavehunter007]

I really think the ice/snow threat will be at the very onset of the precip...after a few hrs when the wind off the ocean gets stronger...everything that falls should turn to rain and whats on the ground will start to melt. Highs near 40 F are forecast for much of the I-95 area - I would think this would redcue the ice threat.

In the far interior areas, they might see snow longer, but it still looks like the rain/snow-ice line moves up right over even interior CT and northern New Jersey.

[Cambium]

NAM model just out. Continues to show 6" for just south of MA Turnpike in CT and 15" for Adirondaks and around Albany. NAM is a short term model. Lets see if this comes true.

Another model I like in really short range is HRRR which did well with last event. That model only goes up to 12hrs so still not in its range.

[Cambium]

Liquid anti icer trucks on Merrit right now.11:30am. Nice to see a plan of action.

[retiree2011]

Channel 8 has started a new feature. They are looking for people to join their weather team at WXedge.com. Some of you folks may be interested in either joining or logging on to see what other people have posted. There are photos and weather info all the way back to 1717!

It was nice weather yesterday and I took a long walk - wildflowers blooming in the woods and neighbors of mine have their garden put in already (hope the coming snow does not cause any harm). Saw the robins again, first time in a couple of weeks.

Good luck tomorrow everyone - be careful on the roads.

[Cambium]

After this next storm.

Heavy Rain & warm on Saturday as another cold front sweeps through at night.

Then a Weak Clipper comes down from Lakes spreads 1-3" as far south as Mid Atlantic Sunday. Could actualy miss us and hit them with snow.

9th still on the maps. Looks interesting again.

This is the clipper for Sunday.

[Cambium]

A blend of NWS Albany, Boston, Upton to make it on one pic.

Towns like Winsted, Canaan, Norfolk, Salsbury, Goshen, Cornwall, Litchfield, Torrington, New Hartford, Colebrook, even places like Bristol or Redding have high chances of seeing over half foot.

[Cambium]

Weather Channel Forecast. Gotta Love the spread between models, NWS, Accuweather & Weather Channel. lol

I personally prefer to hear the worst case senario because people see nothing and brush it off. Then if it does hit the fan they all act shocked and unprepared.

If you use the higher amounts and nothing happens then at least we were ready and can consider it lucky.