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Old 02-01-2011, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619

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GOOD NEWS: I personally think the pattern is changing....Lets all breath normal now. I'm not seeing what I saw for past 4 weeks.. For one today...

This weekend looks like another ice/sleet event (was supposed to be snow)

February 8th looks like Rain now, was supposed to be snow.

7 weeks in the coastal snowstorm pattern I think is breaking down... What will be our next pattern? Rain? Dry? Warm? We'll see. Right now looks like cool temps and rain pattern.

Patterns last 6-12 weeks in my findings.
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Old 02-01-2011, 06:30 PM
 
10,006 posts, read 11,151,702 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Looks like Joe Bastardi might be siding with "Mr. Heat Miser" for a change....

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Thank You Sir, May I Have Another Storm? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45242/thank-you-may-i-have-another-s.asp - broken link)
Yea,..its over ...heat miser will have center stage starting next week. But it was a good run for snow miser! Best in a long time 96' I'd say..
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Old 02-01-2011, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
After todays inland runner and views of upcoming storm I think we broke the pattern...
Its inlands turn to get the snows we got... They'll be seeing the foot+ of snows per storm now while we get rain or ice. Northern part of CT can be in the foot snows.

We will get fridgid again within next 14 days..

According to NWS they are going with the blend of the models that have trended west. Sounds like a new pattern to me. ENJOY

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT STORM ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRES THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SO DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. FCST TEMPS THU NIGHT TRENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER
MAV...HOWEVER RESIDUAL WINDS MAY KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO AVOID
BELOW ZERO NUMBERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE COOLER 00Z MEN FOR FRI. EXPECT SNOW COVER TO REDUCE
THE IMPACT OF DOWNSLOPING SWLY WINDS.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONVERGING ON A SOLN FOR SAT. GFS SPLITS THE
ENSEMBLES...WHICH ARE CLUSTERED NEAR 40/70. ECMWF RUNS ABOUT
80-135 MILES W OF THE GFS...AND THE GEM IS 100-185 MILES W OF THE
GFS. BASED ON THE CLUSTERING OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

RESULT IS THAT OVERALL FCST IS WARMER. PCPN CHANGING TO RAIN ERN
LI AND A MIX ACROSS CSTL CT AND METRO.
ALL SNOW NW. A PURE GFS
SOLN WOULD ONLY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING ACROSS THE CWA.

STORM EVOLUTION IN ALL THREE MODELS IS THE SAME...WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE THE PCPN MAKER ACROSS THE CWA. A HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW IS THEREFORE LIKELY WHERE THE MAIN BAND SETS UP...WITH LESS
INTENSITY AND A MIX OR RAIN E OF THE BAND. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS
CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING IN THIS SCENARIO.

AS USUAL...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO CHANGES TO THE
EXACT TRACK CAN BE EXPECTED.

TIMING...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE
AFTER 6Z SAT...THE HEAVIEST PCPN APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON
SAT ATTM.

LOW DEPARTS AND AN H5 TROF SETTLES OVER THE ERN CONUS. THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SUN INTO MON DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION
OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW FCST IS DRY.

SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE POISED TO SPILL INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WAA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING
LOW PRES. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUE.

PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPENING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRODUCE H85 WINDS UPWARDS OF 80-90KT. WILL
NEED TO FOLLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND EVENT WITH THE SYSTEM.
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Old 02-02-2011, 05:15 AM
 
Location: Out in the stix
1,607 posts, read 3,089,300 times
Reputation: 1030
good looks like my flight will get out of here Sat 7AM. Glad I booked that one instead of 2PM
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Old 02-02-2011, 05:33 AM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
17,330 posts, read 33,013,815 times
Reputation: 28903
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
GOOD NEWS: I personally think the pattern is changing....Lets all breath normal now. I'm not seeing what I saw for past 4 weeks.. For one today...

This weekend looks like another ice/sleet event (was supposed to be snow)

February 8th looks like Rain now, was supposed to be snow.

7 weeks in the coastal snowstorm pattern I think is breaking down... What will be our next pattern? Rain? Dry? Warm? We'll see. Right now looks like cool temps and rain pattern.

Patterns last 6-12 weeks in my findings.
From your mouth (or fingertips) to Mother Nature's ears. I really hope that you're right. Well, except for the weekend ice/sleet. I could live without that, thankyouverymuch.

Honestly, and I don't know what you do for a *real* living, but you should make a career out of the weather -- whether (no pun intended) on TV or behind the scenes. Your forecasts are truer (and earlier) than those on the news, and you obviously love the tracking. Just a thought...
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Old 02-02-2011, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
17,330 posts, read 33,013,815 times
Reputation: 28903
I don't know if you're a believer (today, I choose to be!):

Groundhog Day 2011: It's an early spring! Staten Island Chuck did not see his shadow | SILive.com

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Old 02-02-2011, 06:08 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,294 posts, read 18,872,835 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by DandJ View Post
From your mouth (or fingertips) to Mother Nature's ears. I really hope that you're right. Well, except for the weekend ice/sleet. I could live without that, thankyouverymuch.

Honestly, and I don't know what you do for a *real* living, but you should make a career out of the weather -- whether (no pun intended) on TV or behind the scenes. Your forecasts are truer (and earlier) than those on the news, and you obviously love the tracking. Just a thought...
I concur, this winter, he's been so on the mark I actually look at this thread before I check the weather reports, LOL! I'm actually somewhat of a "weather freak" too, but nowhere near as into it or as good as him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DandJ View Post
The more famous Punxatawny Phil concurs, and Joe Bastardi buys into it:

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Groundhog Says Spring Will Come Early this Year (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45260/groundhog-says-spring-will-com.asp - broken link)

However, he also thinks for the next couple of decades, this is just the beginning: AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Bastardi: Three of Next Five Winters Could be as Cold or Colder (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45220/bastardi-three-of-next-five-wi.asp - broken link)

Of course, they said that in the late 70s as well......(in fact all of the "global warming" people said back then that pollution would make the world colder.....the rationale then was that sulfates, etc. from cars and factories block sunlight in a manner similar to what comes out of volcanoes.....when things got warmer again in the late 80s the rationale for CO2 being the main pollutant was that we supposedly became good at "cutting down" on the pollutants that were making it colder so the "warming" pollutants could dominate).

Before this becomes a "political" thread, I want to say that I think the science to both theories are technically correct (for "warming" Venus is as warm as Mercury despite being twice as far from the sun due to CO2, and for "cooling" global temperatures do cool for a year or two after a major volcanic explosion, most recently in 1991-1993 after Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines exploded). But I think weather and climate are a lot more complex than that and our contribution is somewhat small and not the main driver (including other factors like the "urban heat island" which I think is a bigger driver in raising nighttime lows in recent decades).
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:20 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,358,603 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
GOOD NEWS: I personally think the pattern is changing....

…but you need to check with the powers that be first, right my little grasshopper…

…trust me - I was doing this before you were born.
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:22 AM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
17,330 posts, read 33,013,815 times
Reputation: 28903
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
he also thinks for the next couple of decades, this is just the beginning: AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Bastardi: Three of Next Five Winters Could be as Cold or Colder (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45220/bastardi-three-of-next-five-wi.asp - broken link)
Y'know what? I'm totally OK with the cold. Bring it on. But so much snow? And with ice? That's just brutal.
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:24 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,294 posts, read 18,872,835 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by DandJ View Post
Y'know what? I'm totally OK with the cold. Bring it on. But so much snow? And with ice? That's just brutal.
Yeah, coldwise this is nothing compared to what's "normal" in Montreal (I have some distant relatives up there (and my father and his folks/siblings immigrated from Communist Eastern Europe to there long ago but only lived there a year before reimmigrating to NY), though I've never visited in winter; I also lived for 5 years in the Albany, NY area about 20 years ago so I hear ya.....though Hartford's kind of in between Albany and NYC cold-wise)

A nice but cold day (when it's not constant nor dealing with snow and ice) can kind of be refreshing actually....

Last edited by 7 Wishes; 02-02-2011 at 06:38 AM..
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