[Cambium]

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

Since that first big July 2021 rainstorm, from then to now this has to be one of the all time rainiest stretches in CT's history no? I don't ever recall it raining so much.

No. 31.83 inches fell at BDR July 1, 2021 to Feb 7, 2022. 10 other years had more.

1972
2019
1973
1978
2007
1976
1997
1956
2006
1979

================

1004mb Storm right off the coast. What a waste!

Rain ending West to East for Southern New England. Over an inch fell for Southeast coastal CT and into Rhode Island.

[RoundTableKnight]

Originally Posted by Cambium

No. 31.83 inches fell at BDR July 1, 2021 to Feb 7, 2022. 10 other years had more.

1972
2019
1973
1978
2007
1976
1997
1956
2006
1979

Thanks for that. So 4th rainiest this century! Dang, what was going on in the 70s?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

Thanks for that. So 4th rainiest this century! Dang, what was going on in the 70s?

I would say Hurricanes but I thought that was 50s and 60s more. I was gonna say lots of snowstorms too but again I think 50s and 60s had more.

Here's 1970s by month. June 1972 and January 1979 stand out

[Cambium]

9 Years Ago today... BIG ONE. Here is our thread from it.








https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02092013


https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...80039139803136

[Cambium]

Valentine Day Storm::

No model has it, well, its there but well off shore..

GFS was OTS as well but last 3 runs trended west.. latest run has this...

Light snow hits us from it



And German model has this. Hahaha. Big Snowstorm

See the storm closer?


Heres what NWS NY says...

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mean upper trough will reside across the eastern half of the
country, with a high amplitude ridge along the west coast during
this timeframe. There is pretty good agreement with the 00Z globals
with the greatest uncertainty coming at the end of the forecast
period with the potential for a coastal low late Sunday into Monday.
The 00Z EPS shows multiple members near or just west of the
40N...70W benchmark. This signal has been there over the last week
with significant jumps from run to run. The 00Z operational GFS is
the westernmost solution with a 995 mb low east of the Mid Atlantic
coast on Monday, but has little support from it`s ensemble. The
ECMWF and Canadian are much more progressive and farther east with
their operational runs. Bottom line, it`s something on the radar for
early next week in what otherwise looks to be a benign period

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Valentine Day Storm::

No model has it, well, its there but well off shore..

GFS was OTS as well but last 3 runs trended west.. latest run has this...

Light snow hits us from it



And German model has this. Hahaha. Big Snowstorm

See the storm closer?


Heres what NWS NY says...

Funny part is NWS is now saying snow on Sunday but sunny Monday?

[Cambium]

And just like that...…. GFS has impressed me!! The only one that was showing snow...


GFS, German, Canadian all have some kind of snow happening Sunday. Meanwhile...……. look at the Euro.. Wayyy out in the Atlantic. Not a drop Not a Flake over land.

[Cambium]

Season snowfall totals. LETS GO.. We need more!


This map only goes back 45 days so it doesn't count before December 26th. There were 2 other light events before that but nothing big.


https://maps.cocorahs.org/


LOOK AT MOOSEUP, EAST KILLINGLY, AND DANIELSON. WOW!

[Cambium]

Upton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EST Wed Feb 9 2022

A consistent signature remains for anafrontal precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday, associated with the right rear
quadrant of an intensifying upper level jet to the north and
also mid level frontogenesis well removed from sfc low pressure
developing off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday, which should
pass SE of the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday night into Monday. GFS
still more bullish than the ECMWF, more amplified aloft, which
results in its associated axis of precip more squarely over the
area, vs the ECMWF which is farther to the south/east. GEFS/EPS
still show some ensemble member low tracks NW of the mean and
closer to the benchmark, so there may be more room for this
system to trend farther NW than current model forecasts. P-type
with this event should be all snow, with chance PoP starting
late Sat night in/around NYC, then spreading NE through the day
on Sunday, with likely PoP for eastern Long Island. By evening,
as the low and mid/upper level forcing start to pull away,
have chance PoP only from NYC east, possibly lingering across
eastern Long Island and far SE CT a little past midnight.

Liquid equivalents amounts remain light, the GFS more bullish
with still 1/4 to 1/2 inch via a combo of anafrontal precip as
well as being on the northern periphery of the offshore low, and
the GFS/ECMWF consensus from 1 to 3 tenths of an inch. It would
not take much of a NW shift to bring that consensus in line
with the GFS.

[Cambium]

Saturday Night-Sunday Light Snow Event


Future radar loop from the NAM model. Still long range for the NAM so take it with a grain of salt.


Interesting setup with different reasons to get snow.. Anafront, Frontogenesis, upper Jet dynamics, coastal storm




Upton

On Saturday a pair of cold fronts will approach from the
west. The first boundary will result in mainly just a wind shift,
with the second boundary having meaningfully colder air behind it.
Expect a good deal of clouds on Saturday, but temperatures will be
well above normal despite the cloud cover. Temperatures should get
into the lower and middle 50s across most of the area, with upper
40s for eastern coastal areas, and across far inland locations to
the northwest.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change in the forecast with the 00Z guidance in generally
good agreement. Even the Canadian has come into line with the
offshore low and the potential for anafrontal precipitation late
Saturday night into Sunday. In addition, a polar airmass will be
filtering into the region Saturday night through Monday.

As for the offshore low on Sunday, there are few if any members of
the global ensembles that have the low at or west of 40N...70W.
Trends continue to show a progressive longwave trough across the
east with weak offshore low development. The main catalyst for snow
looks to be strong mid-level frontogenesis and upper jet dynamics in
the SW flow aloft, detached from the offshore low. Additionally,
this looks to be a narrow band with a sharp gradient. Thus, not
going to go higher than chance PoPs (30-50 percent) with still some
uncertainty where this narrow axis of lift sets up. At this time,
expect liquid equivalent amounts to be a quarter inch or less.

A rapid cool down is forecast Saturday night with temperatures
dropping from the 40s into the 20s most places. Most of the
precipitation looks to come when the vertical temperature profiles
supports mainly snow toward Sunday morning, but it`s possible for a
rain/snow mix at the onset Saturday night. All snow is then forecast
on Sunday, tapering off from west to east during the late afternoon
into the evening.

Sunday night into Monday night will be the coldest period, with lows
in the teens and highs in the 20s. Temperatures gradually warm
Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper trough retreat off to the
northeast. No precipitation is forecast during this time.