[Hillsidebill49]

It hit 54F today at my house in Bridgeport, not bad for late December. It was nice to be out today with warm temps and all the snow is gone so quick. So happy!

I’m fine with another snow free christmas. Hopfully the warm weather continues for the next two months and winter will be over.

[7 Wishes]

If the current NWS forecast is right, I could see a repeat of 2002 on Christmas Day.

It generally shows highs in the upper 40s early, then lows in the upper 20s late in the evening. To me this means one of two things:

1) Rain changing to (ice?) and snow..... (just like Xmas Day 2002)

or

2) It rains all day and gets cold too late, which means no white Christmas but possibly an icy mess to go back to work.


Only seems to mention rain right now (except "rain and snow" for areas around I-84), which suggests #2 above, but that could also mean the models are trending back towards a change to snow and they haven't taken it in yet.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

If the current NWS forecast is right, I could see a repeat of 2002 on Christmas Day.

It generally shows highs in the upper 40s early, then lows in the upper 20s late in the evening. To me this means one of two things:

1) Rain changing to (ice?) and snow..... (just like Xmas Day 2002)

or

2) It rains all day and gets cold too late, which means no white Christmas but possibly an icy mess to go back to work.


Only seems to mention rain right now (except "rain and snow" for areas around I-84), which suggests #2 above, but that could also mean the models are trending back towards a change to snow and they haven't taken it in yet.

Post Christmas forecast is ICE cold. WOW

[Cambium]

The rain is happening on the 23rd.

Christmas day up in air based on position of front and lf storm forms.

IMO its either gonna be snow or nothing on 25th. Still 6 days away.

[wetnewspaper]

All the sudden- looks interesting! Chances for snow/wintry precipitation this Friday night, and then again Christmas day/Christmas Eve. GFS is the only one not on board for a Christmas event. NWS has gone from rain and warm temps to cooler temps with rain/snow mixes for both days.

[Cambium]

Focusing on Christmas day only... The front is faster by the way in which the GFS was right from days ago..


Let me explain this discussion below...

National Weather Service New York NY
706 AM EST Wed Dec 20 2017


It's beginning to look like the front will push far east enough to
keep up dry most, if not all of Sunday, however will include slight
chance PoPs in the afternoon to account for any PCPN that may reach
us from a developing storm center to our south.

Global models still disagree with the storm track for Sunday night
into Monday morning, with GFS taking low pressure from the Mid-
Atlantic to fairly well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. The GFS
ensemble mean however is approx 50 miles SE of the benchmark, so it
wouldn`t be surprising to see the deterministic GFS eventually trend
back towards the benchmark in future model runs. ECMWF, its ensemble
mean, and GEM track the storm within the benchmark. Will lean
towards this solution, but not as NW/warm. Still, rain would be
likely for coastal areas, and a wintry mix would occur inland with
the potential for an all-snow event for the far NW suburbs. PCPN
would taper off Monday morning with isolated/scattered rain and snow
showers near the coast and snow showers elsewhere during the rest of
the day..

Looks like a weak storm is happening on Christmas day..




GFS is well southeast of benchmark (which is a key location for a snowstorm). Too far southeast and we get nothing. Too far west and we get rain.

GFS ensembles are closer and only 50 miles southeast of benchmark spot.

Euro, Euro ensembles and Canadian are within benchmark area but with warm temps



NWS NY is going with the Euro position of the storm but as far northwest with the track or as warm as its showing. In other words, they believe there's going to be snow around Christmas BUT mention that coastal areas might be rain/mix.


That's all in the discussion above.

[beer belly]

My sister called from Maine, she suppose to heading here Friday night, she said snow coming to Maine that morning and into the night, and I heard snow also here in the forecast for Friday.....is that so ?.

[hunterseat]

A few random flakes falling in Groton.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by hunterseat

A few random flakes falling in Groton.

Didn't think was cold enough today but saw some specs of blue on radar. Thanks for confirming.

Originally Posted by beer belly

My sister called from Maine, she suppose to heading here Friday night, she said snow coming to Maine that morning and into the night, and I heard snow also here in the forecast for Friday.....is that so ?.

Yup.. Tell your sister the earlier the better on Friday. Should be snowing in NH and northern MA by 1pm Friday. Once shes past Boston on I95 I think she'll be fine but Boston area looks like they'll get snow Friday evening. So either leave early Friday morning or wait till Saturday when we're all getting rain. Even southern Maine.


As far as snow for CT. Tough call only for northern parts. Might be mix Friday evening. Might be snow before the changeover.


ITS ALL RAIN FOR US SATURDAY. Don't fret about any snow to start. Wouldn't be a big deal for the roads in CT. Lets see.

[Cambium]

Looking more likely that this week is a short relaxation pattern. After Christmas we dive down again.


Middle Numbers are the mean Max-Min temps next 15 days per EuroEPS.. Of course after Day 10 can change drastically. But looks cold after this week