[Cambium]

LaGuardia, JFK and Islip & Newark reporting sleet. Teterboro reporting rain and sleet. Linden & Morristown reporting snow.


Mid Level still below freezing. Surface is cooling down. I see a little "green" push now into NJ.(warmth)

[SeaDoo342]

Originally Posted by jp03

Thanks ..yea,

Classic warm air over flow. Doubt anybody south of Danbury , Hartford see more than a brief period of freezing rain. Any white stuff wont be measurable. By rush hour all should be wet.

That's what I'm guessing.... 12-2am-ish looks like it could be slick but other than that... nothing

[clutchrider]

BS. Very tired of this warmth and wet. I want cold, crisp, and snow. My allergies have been killing me these past weeks.

[Cambium]

Sleeting here now

I see many folks from midwest measuring sleet. Wonder if we will too

https://twitter.com/NWSGrandRapids/s...35742364348420

[Cambium]

Its official. NYC has their 1st Trace of the season but apparently they use sleet to record it

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...35999684898816

[Cambium]

Upton mentions a little longer with the frozen precip possible. Commute could be slow. Roads getting treated

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

SFC LOW PRES CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ON TOP OF THAT...SFC LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH...PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS WAA SURGING FROM THE SOUTH
MIXES WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE NORTH.

HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH LIGHT RAIN AT
EWR AND JFK...AND VIA MPING. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL
BAND OF PRECIP THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO A DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE. BEHIND IT...ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS APPROACHING THE NYC METRO FROM THE SW. A SIMILARMIXTURE
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND WITH JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS AS THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.

LATEST 18Z MODELS CONTINUE SUPPORT ONGOING FORECAST THINKING. DATA
COMING IN FROM THE 00Z RAOB WHICH WAS RECENTLY RELEASED DEPICTS
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE VERY WELL AND ALSO SHOWS
THE WARM NOSE AROUND 800 HPA AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 3C.
SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE DRY AIR IS
OVERCOME. THIS WARMING ALOFT SUPPORTS A GENERAL SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MIX TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...AND CAN EXPECT WINTRY PRECIP TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Its official. NYC has their 1st Trace of the season but apparently they use sleet to record it

https://twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/sta...35999684898816

NWS has always counted sleet as a trace of snow. I dont think they count accumulating sleet if it were to happen as accumulating snow but i could be wrong.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

NWS has always counted sleet as a trace of snow. I dont think they count accumulating sleet if it were to happen as accumulating snow but i could be wrong.

Its amazing..even the last 3 days of the year that are going to "not be warm" will average 10 degrees above normal. We will shatter any monthly records easily and probably set a December mark that will never be broken.

If we come out 11-12 above normal I doubt that departure from normal will ever be broken either.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its amazing..even the last 3 days of the year that are going to "not be warm" will average 10 degrees above normal. We will shatter any monthly records easily and probably set a December mark that will never be broken.

If we come out 11-12 above normal I doubt that departure from normal will ever be broken either.

I wanted to spend some time to figure out how much we have to be below normal in Jan & Feb for the "Winter" to be below normal.


With the month we just had I assume we really have to be below normal by 4 degrees each month Jan & Feb? Otherwise 2 normal or slightly below normal months will give us an above normal Winter on paper.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its amazing..even the last 3 days of the year that are going to "not be warm" will average 10 degrees above normal. We will shatter any monthly records easily and probably set a December mark that will never be broken.

If we come out 11-12 above normal I doubt that departure from normal will ever be broken either.

As far as I could find using the long Central Park record January, 1932 is probably the only month that was 10 above normal. Only other month I think that was even close in terms of being almost 10 above normal was March, 1945.

The sleet prevents breaking over there the record for first trace of snow for the season (January 10, 2007 is the record.....curiously the only other winter that had no snow until January was 1877-78. By the way, this doesnt affect BDR as they had a trace in November this year).

Record for latest measurable is a lot later, January 29, 1973 (suprisingly, BDL's record for that is just a couple of days earlier, I dont remember what year they said but posted it earlier in this thread)