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Old 12-27-2013, 04:34 PM
 
2,601 posts, read 3,399,065 times
Reputation: 2395

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Ok so.... Which would you rather have??
  1. Temps 0-25° for many days with no precip
OR

2. Temps in 20s and snowstorm

Apparently #1 is Euro, #2 is GFS right now. Can't wait to see who gives in.

Latest GFS18z transfers the clipper off NJ coast to the coastal Jan3rd. So the Last 4 runs has the coastal while Euro does not..
Option 2 for sure

 
Old 12-27-2013, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read 1,191,138 times
Reputation: 141
NWS released their precip forecast for Sunday:

Precipitation Forecast:
Liquid Equivalent (Rain + melted Snow + melted Ice)
 
Old 12-27-2013, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tubeworm View Post
NWS released their precip forecast for Sunday:
And some sots will be in the 30s with rain. Worst kind of rain IMO.

About the storm from HPC.

"A low developing in the Gulf will result in rainfall over much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend as it moves over the Florida Panhandle, through Georgia and quickly deepens while tracking up the Atlantic Seaboard reaching the New Jersey coast by Sunday evening. Flash flooding is the primary threat, but snow will be possible from the Central Appalachians into New England Sunday. "

Here's the storm track. Notice the 2 separate storms. Had they merged together over the Mid Atlantic OR had the coastal been East more with cold air around, we would have a snowstorm Sunday. Watch out traveling to New England. NWS Maine put out their snow total forecast already.

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-hpc8.jpg  
 
Old 12-27-2013, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Central, CT
856 posts, read 2,015,867 times
Reputation: 333
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Ok so.... Which would you rather have??
  1. Temps 0-25° for many days with no precip
OR

2. Temps in 20s and snowstorm

Apparently #1 is Euro, #2 is GFS right now. Can't wait to see who gives in.

Latest GFS18z transfers the clipper off NJ coast to the coastal Jan3rd. So the Last 4 runs has the coastal while Euro does not..
Snowstorm, please...
 
Old 12-27-2013, 08:49 PM
 
Location: Bottom of the Ocean
679 posts, read 1,191,138 times
Reputation: 141
^^^ Wow. Maine is just getting hammered this December. Lots of snow (and ice!) and cold for them, with much more on the way.

Back in CT, the rain should help with a minor drought, though.

Off of the Drought Monitor:

Northeast:


Connecticut:
 
Old 12-28-2013, 05:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
1 Storm at a time.

Sunday: Rain Event but if you're looking for those white flakes then interior or higher elevations has the chance to see them at the very start and MAYBE at the end too.

Tuesday through Friday: Series of events I still don't feel comfortable talking about yet. All models hinting at a cold and snowy period. Euro says 6-9" for Mid Atlantic NOT us, GFS says 6-9" for us.

This coming week could be one of those classic winter gray sky, cold feeling, snowflake dropping weeks.

As far as this Sunday... Upton says this...

PRECIP INLAND COULD START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX BRIEFLY BEFORE THE WARM
AIR INTRUDES FROM THE LOW. FROM THERE...IT WILL BE A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE DAY AND COULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.

IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE
AROUND 7-10pm...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD
ACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY NY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS
.


 
Old 12-28-2013, 05:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tubeworm View Post

Back in CT, the rain should help with a minor drought, though.

Off of the Drought Monitor:
I didn't realize we were in that deep again. But this time of year with ground frozen nothing is absorbing so its pointless to get rain. Even the reservoirs are frozen so not sure if it helps for them either.

Farmers NEED and WANT a snowpack down. They love that for a good Spring crop because you get the slow moisture melting and you get the water to sit there until the soil warms up. Rain in winter shouldn't exist in my opinion. lol
 
Old 12-28-2013, 06:20 AM
 
Location: Birch Mt - CT
385 posts, read 363,712 times
Reputation: 355
Rain in winter shouldn't exist in my opinion. lol[/quote]

Totally agree. I rather have 20 degrees with snow then 35 and rain. Nothing feels worse then a cold rain.

What's your opinion that if the NAO is not negative, we do not get big snowstorms around here.
 
Old 12-28-2013, 06:27 AM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,166,459 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by markfromct View Post
Latest weekly long range interpretation of the ECMWF model




Not to stir the pot, but Once again, these maps for Long term prove dead wrong. Why do people even bother posting em? I swear they are wrong more than right, a coin toss would suffice better.
 
Old 12-28-2013, 06:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
Quote:
Originally Posted by markfromct View Post
What's your opinion that if the NAO is not negative, we do not get big snowstorms around here.
Clippers & coastals can still happen but wont linger around without that NAO going negative (blocking). Doesn't mean we cant get a foot of snow in a week time though. Sub tropical Jet stream very active and streaming moisture from Pacific and tapping into the Gulf as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Not to stir the pot, but Once again, these maps for Long term prove dead wrong. Why do people even bother posting em? I swear they are wrong more than right, a coin toss would suffice better.

You just have to know what and how to read them. Did you see the next update after that? The one you quoted was not to be believed. It was a bad run. It didn't fit the current setup and pattern. Here's what it showed on the next update. It's nice to see the future before it happens but its more than looking at a map. You have to know how to interpret them.

Attached Thumbnails
Weather in Connecticut-euro8.jpg  
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