[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Celarie

Snow next Wed? That would be great!

Yup, its there again on the GFS.. I'll post snow map in a bit... First... Here's the Rain totals for tomorrow. When was the last time we saw blues on the map??

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

[Cambium]

Power Clipper Tuesday Next week blows up on the coast right to the benchmark spot.



Here's the snowdepth by next Wednesday according to the GFS.

[Cambium]

Current temps before the warmup.. 20s and freezing mark hanging on for dear life in CT. LOL

[mels]

Originally Posted by Mixum

I guess I should clarify my comment. I kept hearing how bad roads were from noon to till four in central ct.... Went out around 4 30 and it was just wet roads with slush.

As fas as the roads where I was it almost was like nothing. That's what I meant by overhype.

I think this was very location-dependent. I live inland but south of the 84 corridor and it was a messy ride home and very icy on the secondary roads. On my drive home I encountered a freezing mist, a freezing rain downpour and sleet all in a 10 minute span. It was very weird. Anyway, the forecast was pretty much spot on for my area. 1-2" then an icy mix afterwards.

The secondary roads were much better this morning and the highway just had icy shoulders but the traffic was awful for some reason.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Power Clipper Tuesday Next week blows up on the coast right to the benchmark spot.



Here's the snowdepth by next Wednesday according to the GFS.

I'm no expert on winter weather- that honor belongs to you Cam. That said, why are you labeling this system as a clipper when the animated models I'm tracking show a track up the Atlantic Coast. The precip amounts are also pretty extensive for a clipper.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

I'm no expert on winter weather- that honor belongs to you Cam. That said, why are you labeling this system as a clipper when the animated models I'm tracking show a track up the Atlantic Coast. The precip amounts are also pretty extensive for a clipper.

Any time a storm forms in the northern plains or southwest Canada and tracks across the lakes to the coast its a clipper. If a clipper taps into Atlantic moisture it can bomb out. It looks like Cam is showing a clipper that reaches the coast bombs out and then tracks northeast. Right Cam?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Power Clipper Tuesday Next week blows up on the coast right to the benchmark spot.



Here's the snowdepth by next Wednesday according to the GFS.

Normally a storm that far out in the ocean would pull in cold air and produce all snow all the way to the coast, but the amounts seem to suggest all rain for the Cape and most of LI and rain for part of the storm in NYC, the Sound Shore parts of southern Westchester and perhaps even the immediate CT coast (at least the SW part). Thoughts?

Also wondering, is this for Tuesday, Wednesday, or Tuesday night into Wednesday?

[Mixum]

well hopefully it happens but way too early yet....

last fridays storm looked like a sure thing but fizzled out few days before.

[Cambium]

Great posts! Yeah, as far as the next Tuesday the 5th storm on the GFS, looks like its energy coming from the Northern Plains which exits NJ coast and deepens as it moves northeast. It's possible as the clipper dives down to the coast, a new low forms along the coast and moves up. It would then be a clipper that transfers to a coastal storm but it doesnt form down south and head up the coast. It would be from NJ/Del Marva point. Still early for these track details. But the reason for the heavier amounts is because it strenthens over the coastal waters.

Also remember... look at the 500mb whenever you want to see a path that a storm will take. That level doesnt change as fast as the surface so it wont be a drastic change from run to run. But any subtle changes will affect strength and track. Here's how the 500mb pattern looked for that particular run and storm.. notice the Ridge out west so that Clipper follows the path of the 500mb pattern and dives down to the coast and up.


NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

I think this was very location-dependent. On my drive home I encountered a freezing mist, a freezing rain downpour and sleet all in a 10 minute span. It was very weird.
.

Fascinating! One area we rarely hear of is above our heads. So your desciption clear says that snow was falling from 10,000 feet up, hit a warm layer which melted the snow but then hit a cold layer at the surface which turned it to freezing rain BUT as you were driving there was that other area where snow fell from 10,000 feet then hit a warm layer but it wasnt as thick as previously so it didnt melt all the snow and so sleet fell.

Just fascinating how temperatures can vary up above our heads.

Check this out… Twice a day NWS sends weather balloons up and we can see the data.
This was at 7pm.

There was a tiny layer of below freezing above Long Island area but only 300 feet thick, which is definitely not enough for frozen precip, hence why they were geting rain at the time..

Albany shows below freezing from surface to 6000 feet but a 1500 foot thickness layer of above freezing at 7000 feet and they were reporting freezing rain at the time.

Point is. Upton had a thicker layer of above freezing temps. I WISH we had balloons for every town, we could more accurate forecast where the sleet or ice would fall.