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Wow. That's interesting. Philly can and has had about 30 at this point and ended the year with like 315, but can just as likely be at about 12 now and have 360 by the end of the year.
January more than any month can be pushed by the weather, because it's one of the only months where the weather really does push people inside. This January overall has been quite mild, actually this entire winter has had only a few days of actual cold weather. We've also barely gotten any snow. If it does it's maybe an inch or two max at a time.
It's very hard to dictate how the entire year is going to go just off a portion of January.
Philly always has the most for the first few months. Last year Chicago didn't overtake Philly until the beginning of April but still managed to end the year with 140 more homicides than Philly.
Yeah, spring and summer are awful in Chicago when it comes to violence.
About the Chicago, Bmore, Saint Louis, NOLA vs São Paulo and other Brazilian cities. You guys have to realize that city boundary comparisons aren’t apples to apples. In America generally suburbs are as safe and cities are violent in the rest of the world especially Brazil it isn’t the same thing or their is a much lower percent of a metro that lives in the Suburbs in the first place so a Brazilian city that had a murder rate of 24 per 100,000 probably has a metro murder rate of 20-30 per 100,000 because the city is either the overwhelming amount of the metro or the suburbs aren’t necessarily as safe as equivalent American suburbs. An American city with 24 per 100,000 on the other hand probably has a metro homicide rate of 5 per 100,000. So while STL and Bmore city limits can compare with many of Brazil’s worst cities when talking metro wide the Brazilian cities separate quite quickly.
About the Chicago, Bmore, Saint Louis, NOLA vs São Paulo and other Brazilian cities. You guys have to realize that city boundary comparisons aren’t apples to apples. In America generally suburbs are as safe and cities are violent in the rest of the world especially Brazil it isn’t the same thing or their is a much lower percent of a metro that lives in the Suburbs in the first place so a Brazilian city that had a murder rate of 24 per 100,000 probably has a metro murder rate of 20-30 per 100,000 because the city is either the overwhelming amount of the metro or the suburbs aren’t necessarily as safe as equivalent American suburbs. An American city with 24 per 100,000 on the other hand probably has a metro homicide rate of 5 per 100,000. So while STL and Bmore city limits can compare with many of Brazil’s worst cities when talking metro wide the Brazilian cities separate quite quickly.
This has been mentioned hundreds of times on CD and people aren't wanting to understand it.
This has been mentioned hundreds of times on CD and people aren't wanting to understand it.
But is that really relevant? If you're in a city, then it's homicide rates are more relevant than if you're in a suburb. City proper size can influence homicide rates though. Cities with smaller city limits are more likely to have legacy white-abandoned neighborhoods which can over-inflate murder rates vs. bigger city limits which is more likely to have outer suburbs which can under-inflate a murder rate esepcially cities who annexed a lot of land over the last 60 years or so.
Regardless, if I'm in Baltimore City or St. Louis City, I definitely want to know the homicide rate of the city itself moreso than it's combined rate with it's suburbs.
Regardless, if I'm in Baltimore City or St. Louis City, I definitely want to know the homicide rate of the city itself moreso than it's combined rate with it's suburbs.
Both Baltimore County and St. Louis County, outside of city limits, have plenty of homicides. Balt County had 50 last year and St. Louis County 64. Metro Baltimore's homicide rate is close to 20/100k.
I think neighborhoods are ultimately what I look at. St. Louis is a good example. Delmar Loop is a great place to stay and you can walk along Delmar in that part of town, cross into University City and not know you've left St. Louis city limits. And it's fairly safe at night. But I also wouldn't walk too far out of the neighborhood north or east.
DC's another example, even when the city was erupting in the 90s, Georgetown was as safe then as it is now.
But is that really relevant? If you're in a city, then it's homicide rates are more relevant than if you're in a suburb. City proper size can influence homicide rates though. Cities with smaller city limits are more likely to have legacy white-abandoned neighborhoods which can over-inflate murder rates vs. bigger city limits which is more likely to have outer suburbs which can under-inflate a murder rate esepcially cities who annexed a lot of land over the last 60 years or so.
Regardless, if I'm in Baltimore City or St. Louis City, I definitely want to know the homicide rate of the city itself moreso than it's combined rate with it's suburbs.
Yes it is relevant because, if you go to a Brazilian city center and people from the surrounding towns/suburbs commute or just go to the city center your more likely to get shot/robbed and stabbed in absolute because the area is just more dangerous. If you go to Saint Louis and a substantial amount of people from the surrounding area enters Saint Louis the murder rate doesn't stay the same and in fact drops significantly as tons of wealthy suburbanites are inside the city, same with Baltimore.
Sao Paulo is by far one of the safest cities in it's metro area, as the state itself is in has twice the murder rate and suburbs like Diadema have a murder rate around 22 per 100,000. Osasco has a murder rate around 15 per 100,000 etcetera and the list goes on.
Last edited by NigerianNightmare; 01-25-2020 at 08:57 AM..
One really can't really compare cities like Baltimore or St. Louis to cities in Brazil, Venezuela or Mexico simply off the demographics of who's committing the crimes (homicides in particular ) is apples to oranges.
Throw a dart on any notorious Brazilian, Mexican or Venezuelan city and you'll quickly find out that unlike Baltimore or St. Louis where A) the killings are concentrated in poor inner city neighborhoods and B) are unequivocally black on black.... there are zero racial or socio-economic demographic that aren't involved in city wide killings in those cities.
The chances of you getting shot/stabbed in downtown Rio are astronomically higher than you being shot/stabbed in downtown Baltimore or St. Louis, simply off of demographic/socio-economic makeup of the cities.
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