[rabbit33]

I don't CARE if the Californians invading us are politically somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan! That's not the problem! The problem is that they come in, waving fistfuls of money, and suck up all the housing at way over its value ("Look at this, Ethel! We sold our shack in the Bay Area for $2M and these hicks are selling 4 bedroom houses on an acre for a third that! Let's write a check now!") Then all the property taxes go through the roof for existing residents, all the city services are overloaded so taxes have to go up further and the quality of service declines, and pretty soon you've turned OKC into Dallas.

[eddie gein]

Originally Posted by rabbit33

I don't CARE if the Californians invading us are politically somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan! That's not the problem! The problem is that they come in, waving fistfuls of money, and suck up all the housing at way over its value ("Look at this, Ethel! We sold our shack in the Bay Area for $2M and these hicks are selling 4 bedroom houses on an acre for a third that! Let's write a check now!") Then all the property taxes go through the roof for existing residents, all the city services are overloaded so taxes have to go up further and the quality of service declines, and pretty soon you've turned OKC into Dallas.

The most recent data (2019) shows that 7500 people moved from California to Oklahoma. I wonder if that is enough people to actualize this myth.

That number (7500) is dwarfed by the number of people moving to Oklahoma from adjoining states. Texas brought us 26,500 people in 2019 alone. So those states are bringing in over seven times as many people as California.

Not to mention the outmigration from Oklahoma almost matches the in migration which would drive down property taxes and unload burdens on city services. Oklahoma's net growth isn't really very high due to this.

[rabbit33]

Originally Posted by eddie gein

The most recent data (2019) shows that 7500 people moved from California to Oklahoma. I wonder if that is enough people to actualize this myth.

That number (7500) is dwarfed by the number of people moving to Oklahoma from adjoining states. Texas brought us 26,500 people in 2019 alone. So those states are bringing in over seven times as many people as California.

Not to mention the outmigration from Oklahoma almost matches the in migration which would drive down property taxes and unload burdens on city services. Oklahoma's net growth isn't really very high due to this.

OK, so the statistics may well show a relatively small number of direct invaders. I'd be interested to see how many of the Texans are moving from high cost of living areas, where the cost of (especially) housing has clearly been affected by Californian migration especially in more affluent areas.

Another point to consider is who and where these 7500 people are going to. Oklahoma as a whole has 3.95 million people. Yep, 7500 doesn't make a dent in that. But Californians aren't moving to Guymon, they're probably going mostly to OKC and Tulsa metros. That's about 1,000,000 people. But let's run that down further. Who leaves CA to come to OK? It's not the destitute or even the minimum wage workers, most likely. It's going to be middle class people who are economic refugees, mostly. So maybe 1/3 of those two metro areas is a potential target zone, or say 350,000 people.

Now 7500 people are what, 2000 households? How many houses are for sale in the "better" areas of OKC and Tulsa in the course of a year? Add 2000 to the number of potential buyers competing for those houses, and you can see that's going to make a difference in the house sales landscape.

Of course this is a gross oversimplification, but the principle is the same - 1) It's not all of OK that people from CA are going to be targeting when they move; 2) It's not the full range of CA residents who'll be coming to OK but rather a reasonably prosperous group who will be more likely than average to intend to buy a house; 3) compared to the total population of the destination state, the number of houses for sale in a given year vs. the number of house-buying households coming in is going to be a much closer ratio; 4) Even a relatively small increase in demand for a given supply can result in sharp price increases.

For that last point, consider a house for sale, and you get ONE offer. There's no indication of another one coming - what do you do? If it's at all reasonable, you take it. Now consider you've got TWO people offering on the house. Just by adding one person to the mix, you can have them bidding against each other. That house goes for a higher price. Now the next house down comes up for sale. Comps tell the owner about the one that just sold. So the asking price goes up; if you again get just two people competing for it, the selling price goes up again, and so on and so on. This is how even a small increase in demand can drive up prices more than one might expect. And increasing the supply of houses isn't that easy. You can't easily induce more people to sell up and move away, and building more takes at least several months.

[jaysan89]

Originally Posted by NearFantastica

I feel sorry for any Californians that have to settle in Oklahoma

Me too. I also feel sorry for the ones who had to relocate to the Wichita, KS area where I live.

[swake]

Originally Posted by rabbit33

OK, so the statistics may well show a relatively small number of direct invaders. I'd be interested to see how many of the Texans are moving from high cost of living areas, where the cost of (especially) housing has clearly been affected by Californian migration especially in more affluent areas.

Another point to consider is who and where these 7500 people are going to. Oklahoma as a whole has 3.95 million people. Yep, 7500 doesn't make a dent in that. But Californians aren't moving to Guymon, they're probably going mostly to OKC and Tulsa metros. That's about 1,000,000 people. But let's run that down further. Who leaves CA to come to OK? It's not the destitute or even the minimum wage workers, most likely. It's going to be middle class people who are economic refugees, mostly. So maybe 1/3 of those two metro areas is a potential target zone, or say 350,000 people.

Now 7500 people are what, 2000 households? How many houses are for sale in the "better" areas of OKC and Tulsa in the course of a year? Add 2000 to the number of potential buyers competing for those houses, and you can see that's going to make a difference in the house sales landscape.

Of course this is a gross oversimplification, but the principle is the same - 1) It's not all of OK that people from CA are going to be targeting when they move; 2) It's not the full range of CA residents who'll be coming to OK but rather a reasonably prosperous group who will be more likely than average to intend to buy a house; 3) compared to the total population of the destination state, the number of houses for sale in a given year vs. the number of house-buying households coming in is going to be a much closer ratio; 4) Even a relatively small increase in demand for a given supply can result in sharp price increases.

For that last point, consider a house for sale, and you get ONE offer. There's no indication of another one coming - what do you do? If it's at all reasonable, you take it. Now consider you've got TWO people offering on the house. Just by adding one person to the mix, you can have them bidding against each other. That house goes for a higher price. Now the next house down comes up for sale. Comps tell the owner about the one that just sold. So the asking price goes up; if you again get just two people competing for it, the selling price goes up again, and so on and so on. This is how even a small increase in demand can drive up prices more than one might expect. And increasing the supply of houses isn't that easy. You can't easily induce more people to sell up and move away, and building more takes at least several months.

Tulsa and Oklahoma City metros have a combined population of 2.5 million, way more than one million. And a the cites are not poor and have low costs of living. A majority of people in both metros are middle class or better, probably closer to 1.5 to 2 million than your estimated 350,000. And the two cities add ~10,000 housing units per year. Your numbers are way, way off.

[StillwaterTownie]

Top 5 states for sending most people to Oklahoma:

1. Texas
2. Colorado
3. Arkansas
4. California
5. Kansas

https://stacker.com/oklahoma/states-...eople-oklahoma

[caligirlz]

Originally Posted by rabbit33

For that last point, consider a house for sale, and you get ONE offer. There's no indication of another one coming - what do you do? If it's at all reasonable, you take it. Now consider you've got TWO people offering on the house. Just by adding one person to the mix, you can have them bidding against each other. That house goes for a higher price. Now the next house down comes up for sale. Comps tell the owner about the one that just sold. So the asking price goes up; if you again get just two people competing for it, the selling price goes up again, and so on and so on. This is how even a small increase in demand can drive up prices more than one might expect. And increasing the supply of houses isn't that easy. You can't easily induce more people to sell up and move away, and building more takes at least several months.

That applies to every single city of all sizes, and all locations, not just OK. You think people in Sacramento or the foothills or the central valley are happy about people from the Bay Area bringing their big bucks and doing the same exact thing that you're moaning about. Heck no, they aren't. They're pissed too. You aren't any different or special. This is how it works, EVERYWHERE. You're blame is wrongly placed however. You can thank your city council, developers, and realtors for advertising your wonderful little city far and wide, and inviting people to come to your cute little town. They're the ones at fault, not those that heard the invitation.

[Howest2008]

Originally Posted by NearFantastica

I feel sorry for any Californians that have to settle in Oklahoma

I feel sorry for every homeless californian that won't move to Oklahoma to put a roof
over theirs head....

[artillery77]

I mean, at least they didn't come speaking a different language with booze and smallpox blankets and actually paid a resident to move into a home.



Where did Okies used to go in the Depression again? We got plenty of entitled homeless if you want an even trade. Careful, many aren't potty trained yet, but maybe one of the new residents can get OKC there very own one of these.



https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/ind...dafdb02a76d2a4

[Howest2008]

Originally Posted by rabbit33

I don't CARE if the Californians invading us are politically somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan! That's not the problem! The problem is that they come in, waving fistfuls of money, and suck up all the housing at way over its value ("Look at this, Ethel! We sold our shack in the Bay Area for $2M and these hicks are selling 4 bedroom houses on an acre for a third that! Let's write a check now!") Then all the property taxes go through the roof for existing residents, all the city services are overloaded so taxes have to go up further and the quality of service declines, and pretty soon you've turned OKC into Dallas.

It's the REA that's jacking up the cost of OK housing.....