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As we mentioned a couple of days ago, the first hint of this arrives tonight. Higher elevations east of the lakes could see some accumulating snow tonight.
Extreme instability develops tonight with lake induced equilibrium levels up to nearly 25K feet with LICAPES values near 1500 J/Kg. This degree of instability will generate healthy convective bands off the lakes. Mesoscale models showing a pretty decent QPF signal on the order of a half inch or more. 850 mb temperatures dropping to near -8C will be plenty cold enough for interior sections to be all snow. If confidence of a steady state nature of the band orientation was higher, might be inclined to consider headlines for this event. However, initial westerly flow regime quickly veers northwesterly overnight and this reorientation of the flow/bands could limit snowfall potential. Despite this, parameters would suggest a fairly high likelihood for the first accumulating snowfall for some of the higher terrain east of the lakes, possibly in the 2-4/3-5" range. Snow-to-liquid ratios likely on the wetter side something in the 8-10:1 range. How much snow gets "lost" as it melts is almost always an unknown, but once we get a coating to build off of we will be good to go. Will continue to mention the accumulating snow risk for the higher terrain in the HWO products, although later shifts may need to consider a headline, if better confidence can be gained.
As we mentioned a couple of days ago, the first hint of this arrives tonight. Higher elevations east of the lakes could see some accumulating snow tonight.
In Edmonton are your trees already leafless? I just saw pic of Calgary on twitter and the trees are bare already. Are trees bare in October? Wow, that is a long time to be surrounded by dead trees.
Latest ECMWF guidance shows the EPO flipping decidedly negative mid month. That should usher in another cold spell (maybe very cold). So it seems as if this November will be flipping around a lot.
In Edmonton are your trees already leafless? I just saw pic of Calgary on twitter and the trees are bare already. Are trees bare in October? Wow, that is a long time to be surrounded by dead trees.
I moved to Victoria last year so no idea what's going on in Edmonton. Here in Victoria the recent rain and wind did a real number on the leaves and we seem to be way more advanced into fall than down east. Luckily there are lots of evergreens in town, both broadleaf and otherwise, that softens the blow somewhat. Doesn't help with the rain though!
Here's a webcam that shows the current (wet) situation.
Last night it got down to 1c, the coldest so far this season. But that low is still normal for this time and continues the streak of at or above average minimums since early August. Tonight is forecasted by many to be 0c and that will be below our typical as well as the first frost of the season. The next four nights are predicted at or below that mark.
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