Fall 2021 Weather Thread (Philadelphia, snow, warm, ice)
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Still hoping, and will see how this develops. Either way, local mets here never pass up the opportunity to say "atmospheric river" repeatedly.
The on-again off-again system is now on again and about to bomb out over the BC coast. Not as strong as the last two systems but 962 mb is still very impressive. Should bring atmospheric river conditions to Northern California but exact timing, locations, and amounts still rather uncertain.
I been saving these actual observation maps twice a day (12z and 00z) give or take a few minutes...
Cool look at the 10,000' temps with 500mb heights since October 1st.
The west was getting the shots of cold in October, note the snowstorm in the northern Plains October 12-13 as the Upper Low barreled down into the Southwest.
Trough moved into the Northeast mid October as another one hit the Northwest...
Huge Upper low in the Ohio Valley and Northeast end of October and that was the start of a consistent cold airmass for November...
It's now leaving and we start to moderate again
This shows how fluent the atmosphere is, always moving, and makes you appreciate when big storms happen, the setup that has to be in place. Timing, Timing, Timing
full-on november weather here, stratus drizzle, temps hovering around 10c with 100% relative humidity, very low diurnal range.
Could turn milder towards the end of the week with highs above 15c, before a possible general cooling down next week and a possible first frost. We'll see.
Rain totals for the early week Bay Area storm cut back to 3/4's of an inch. We're coming in a little closer to the Ed's Mountain forecast than the GFS. Still, we average just over 2 inches for the entire month of November, so we'll take it. Highs will be in the low-mid 60s, then a week of upper 60s to 70 once the sun comes back.
It will make it's way east into the Midwest and lift north into the Great Lakes
I might get some wraparound snow showers out of this
GFS dumping a ton of snow in northern Minnesota
Euro has the storm too but seems to keep most of the snow in Canada and Northern Wisconsin
Does give some wraparound snow but not near me
GEFS run showing warm period abruptly ending later this week and a cold pattern establishing itself
This is interesting. Everytime I see the deepest cold anomalies build of the Canadian Prairies to me that's a sign of colder times for the Central US soon after.
It will make it's way east into the Midwest and lift north into the Great Lakes
I might get some wraparound snow showers out of this
GFS dumping a ton of snow in northern Minnesota
And another system right after that. That's the one we're watching around here.
GFS maps for Sunday November 14th & Monday November 15th.
Storm comes from the PacNW and takes this path.
The question is... will a coastal storm form south enough and will that Great lakes storm transfer to it with the base of the trough south of here.
The Canadian does something different. lol. It digs the storm way down instead of going into the Great Lakes and comes up the seaboard carrying some Gulf moisture with it
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