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Nothing really too surprising, the warmer SSTs in the northern Pacific have been causing severe disruptions to the jet stream for many years now, however the impact is a greater factor in the winter season. I’m seeing very few good signs of any wintry pattern for 3-4 weeks out or longer. The only Snow Belt area I’m quite familiar with is the western UP of Michigan extending southward to the Iron Belt area of Wisconsin and Vilas County.
Very ugly Euro forecast right now for December. Godawful
^
That doesn't have a La Nina look at all, just a blowtorch look.
I'm really hoping that this very strong polar vortex (already at -80C at 10mb) gets dislodged or splits at some point next month otherwise this will be a horrible holiday season for winter weather fans here. Reminding me a lot of December 2015 which was +11.6F above normal right now
CONNECTICUT (WTNH) — Connecticut has seen some interesting weather patterns this year, making matters more serious is that four counties were listed as having Stage 3 drought conditions in October.
The state even had record-breaking warm temperatures for November. So, what does that mean for winter?
Well, we went to News 8’s Chief Meteorologist Gil Simmons to find out.
“My personal experience with forecasting a general winter season overview hinges on a few key things to watch or identify,” he said. “A busy tropical season has preceded snowy winters here. La Niña or colder than average Pacific Ocean temperatures favor a snowy pattern for us.”
He said both apply for this year.
Simmons said he expects Connecticut will have a busy and snowy winter season.
“I expect quite a few systems to move in our direction. The issue will be how long the cold air stays over Connecticut as storms approach.”
But it isn’t just snowstorms, Simmons projects we’ll see ice storms too.
“We could see a series of snow to ice to rainstorms that track up the Interstate 95 corridor. Others may end up just offshore. I expect at least six statewide snow events with each dropping six inches or more. I also expect many ‘snow to slop’ or icy, rain mix events too!”
“Historically, some summer and fall droughts have been erased by busy following winters too,” he added. “I expect slightly above the climatological normal 28” snow [approximated] average at the shoreline and 41” inland [approximated average] this coming winter. I also predict some very large temperature variations with the cold giving way to thaws.”
He said now is the best time to test out your snow blower and find your snow gear.
“Winter is likely coming to town soon! Don’t say I didn’t tell you so! Thank you for taking a look at my Winter 2020-2021 forecast thoughts!”
Cohen says a strong La Nina and low sea ice near Scandinavia are among the players in this year's winter forecast
"I do think that if you look at the sea ice and La Nina, you know, both those factors definitely favor a milder winter," Cohen said.
Cohen is probably best known for linking conditions over Siberia to how our winter may evolve.
"It was super hot in Siberia in that region. I think that might play a role in the winter.
"A lot of snow in Siberia and Eurasia in the fall tends to favor a weaker Polar Vortex and more severe weather here.
"If it doesn't get cold in Eurasia, I think that favors a strong polar vortex."
A strong polar vortex essentially pens up cold air over the Arctic and prevents it from spreading south.
All told, Cohen sees a mild winter, overall. But while his models suggest slightly above-normal snowfall around Boston, Cohen says we may end up with a seasonal snowfall that is slightly below normal.
For those that love the snow though, Cohen says a little patience may pay off.
"I'm always looking for high latitude blocking, right, without that you just don't get a weakening of the polar vortex. I think if there is going to be a breakdown in the polar vortex it's more likely to happen from mid-January on."
Cohen suggests that while December and January may get the traditional winter months off to a slow start when it comes to snowfall, the snow may pile up a little more quickly during the second-half of the winter.
Statistically, snow in October does not completely correlate with what actually happens over the course of winter. In the six years with snow before or on Halloween since 1994 at Blue Hill Observatory, two of those winters featured much above normal snowfall, three of them fell within a few inches of normal and one of them finished with well below normal snowfall. The small sample size also proves any correlation inconclusive.
One met says LaNina brings snowy conditions, the other says LaNina brings warm winters. Believe it or not, you can have both. But let me grab some stats for Hartford to see...
A really mild winter would be a gift from the heavens. Given the Covid situation mild weather would be of great health benefit in particular as people could do more things outdoors and keep airing buildings.
If the CFSv2 is right, I might be wearing shorts in December
Global warming is hella real. There is heavy methane release (methane 'bomb' about to go off) right now in the arctic. As everyone knows, Siberia was on fire this summer.
For the record, permafrost is melting at an alarming rate and scientists are afraid there is now way to reserve it, even if we halt all fossil fuel usage for good.
"An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020":
Global warming is hella real. There is heavy methane release (methane 'bomb' about to go off) right now in the arctic. As everyone knows, Siberia was on fire this summer.
For the record, permafrost is melting at an alarming rate and scientists are afraid there is now way to reserve it, even if we halt all fossil fuel usage for good.
"An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020":
Hope i am long dead before it really gets much worse. Dew points have really come up in FL for more of the year for the last 9 years.
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But let me grab some stats for Hartford to see...
