Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
But doesn't that leave out analog years such as 1970, 1973, 1988, and 1995, all of which featured gelid Decembers? Granted, the following Februaries in 1971, 1989 and 1996 all featured major torches and only 1996 wound up below normal because of a cold beginning of the month. 1974 and 1989 had major January torches as well, but in all of those cases December was cold. The analysis did mention 2010, in which December was cold and the sudden end of winter typical of La Niña didn't happen until shortly into February.
Were the analog years LaNina conditions? I dont believe LaNina is the only driver of a pattern. Too much "Average" talk out there.
I still want to check out LaNina winters. Maybe tomorrow I'll put something together.
Finally over the last few days, some signs of a pattern change in the 12-16 day range on the GFS for early to mid December. Hopefully positive PNA and western ridge will finally lead to some wintry weather and storms for areas east of the Rockies.
Finally over the last few days, some signs of a pattern change in the 12-16 day range on the GFS for early to mid December. Hopefully positive PNA and western ridge will finally lead to some wintry weather and storms for areas east of the Rockies.
Yeah Commodity Weather tweeted out a possible pattern change in the 11-15 day
they also showed this. It MIGHT" get a colder based on some wind patterns
Quote:
Falling global wind trends on the modeling would normally favor a colder Eastern December story, but some prominent exceptions are on this list as well, including the warm 1999 (very close match to November 2020) and also 2011.
Finally over the last few days, some signs of a pattern change in the 12-16 day range on the GFS for early to mid December. Hopefully positive PNA and western ridge will finally lead to some wintry weather and storms for areas east of the Rockies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Yeah Commodity Weather tweeted out a possible pattern change in the 11-15 day
they also showed this. It MIGHT" get a colder based on some wind patterns
What ever happened to that awesome pacific "blob". lol. Remember that?
But doesn't that leave out analog years such as 1970, 1973, 1988, and 1995, all of which featured gelid Decembers? Granted, the following Februaries in 1971, 1989 and 1996 all featured major torches and only 1996 wound up below normal because of a cold beginning of the month. 1974 and 1989 had major January torches as well, but in all of those cases December was cold. The analysis did mention 2010, in which December was cold and the sudden end of winter typical of La Niña didn't happen until shortly into February.
Were the analog years LaNina conditions? I dont believe LaNina is the only driver of a pattern. Too much "Average" talk out there.
I still want to check out LaNina winters. Maybe tomorrow I'll put something together.
Both your analogs and mine were La Niña winters. I should have added December 1983, also a Niña. December 1983 and January 1984, to a lesser extent were cold. February 1984 was solid torch. March 1984 actually was colder than February in NYC, which is exceedingly rare. I'm interested to see what you come up with. However 1970-1 was a moderate Niña, 1973-4, 1988-9 and 2010-11 were strong, and 1983-4 and 1995-6 weak to at times moderate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988
I remember Jan thru March was well above normal in FL in 89...
I was in Florida in early 1989. Wow it was warm, about 85° in Boca. The wedding we were attending was unbearably hot.
This is a great pattern for strom development. Hopefully it will be cold enough to snow if a storms comes our way. That +PNA should help, but the AO remains positive/neutral but the NAO might go negative
Hope i am long dead before it really gets much worse. Dew points have really come up in FL for more of the year for the last 9 years.
Yeah that is interesting. Also notice the very active hurricane season, they already well in the Greek alphabet on the tropical system name list. They just had a very powerful one for this time in the season in Central America.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
