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Bastardi did a great job going over analogs for different teleconnections for the US during the middle of summer
Currently a negative EPO and this is what happens
Currently a negative AO and this happens
Currently a neutral NAO has no real signal for July
going towards a negative NAO surprisingly has cooler chances for some of the west.
Currently a positive PNA has no temperature signal according to the analogs
Currently a negative Western Pacific Oscillation which promotes warmth
He also said that if all these teleconnections were in place during January the whole country would be in an ice box. Fascinating how different teleconnections have different impacts on the US during different times of the year.
You will never see FL in a ice box in the summer or winter anymore.
I feel like the Plains has been pretty consistently below normal for the past year. Not that I'm complaining or anything; Oklahoma is too hot for my tastes.
That's the first July tornado on record in the Portland area. Very rare weather for summer, and I wish that it would happen here too. I've only seen about three lightning flashes here in the past four years combined.
Northern portion of the Austin area got t-storms. Was sunny and 90 at my house and I went to Georgetown, was heavy t-storm and 75F. Got soaked and then was in A/C up there and was freezing. When I drove back, the sun was out, stopped at Lowe's, had warmed back to 78F but was still chilly with a breeze. Funny how acclimated I get to heat this time of year.
60% chance of t-storms tomorrow, then turning hotter and precip chances lower. NWS is calling for 98F on Saturday. It hasn't been past 95F yet this year.
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