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Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
I think that either the ECMWF or the NMME are the most likely solutions. Also the UKMet.
All 3 of those would indicate a hotter than average summer for the Southwest, and if you look at 2008, 2011 and 2015, that was the case here (cool May, hot summer).
So far I think 2011 is the closest analog to this year, and that year, it stayed cool until mid June, then the gloves were off, including our hottest August ever (which tied July 2009 for our hottest month ever), every month from Aug to Oct ended up being above average, but then in early Nov, the pattern changed and Nov&Dec of 2011 were cool, only for it to turn warm again right at New Years in 2012
To everyone who keeps mentioning 1993 as an analog, while it may have been cool in the Central US, that July was one of the hottest on record for the Southeast.
It seems like the center part of the country has been at or below normal for most of the past couple years now.
July of 93 was wet for my area when i lived in Tampa. I was fishing offshore all the time back then.
All 3 of those would indicate a hotter than average summer for the Southwest, and if you look at 2008, 2011 and 2015, that was the case here (cool May, hot summer).
So far I think 2011 is the closest analog to this year, and that year, it stayed cool until mid June, then the gloves were off, including our hottest August ever (which tied July 2009 for our hottest month ever), every month from Aug to Oct ended up being above average, but then in early Nov, the pattern changed and Nov&Dec of 2011 were cool, only for it to turn warm again right at New Years in 2012
Just based on the amount of rainfall which has stalled planting crops in the Midwest, I'm starting to think this summer will be more like 2009 which was very cool here
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,687,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Just based on the amount of rainfall which has stalled planting crops in the Midwest, I'm starting to think this summer will be more like 2009 which was very cool here
See, 2009 was a hot summer here, including our hottest July ever, but we had a hot May that year, and the first 4 months of the year didn't line up either
January warm in 09, cool this year
February warm in 09, very cool this year
March average to slighty above in 09, average this year
April average in 09, very warm this year
Summer 2009 here had slightly above average temperatures, but it was very cloudy and wet.
2008 and 2011 were very cool, cloudy and wet. 2015 had average temperatures, cloudy with a dry first half and wet 2nd half.
1989, 1995 and 2003 are still minor analogues for the upcoming summer, any of those would be good. 1989 was warm and sunny throughout, 1995 had a very poor June, but then a hot July and the hottest August on record. 2003 was warm throughout with the record hot spell in early August.
See, 2009 was a hot summer here, including our hottest July ever, but we had a hot May that year, and the first 4 months of the year didn't line up either
January warm in 09, cool this year
February warm in 09, very cool this year
March average to slighty above in 09, average this year
April average in 09, very warm this year
May very warm in 09, very cool this year
I think that was due to the ridging over the North Pacific (Blob). That's really not in place right now. What's happening is a pacific jet that keeps slamming the US with storms. This will saturate the ground and that will act as a negative feedback keeping rains coming this summer and temps cool. The only outlier that would be a saving grace in recent years where we had a very cool spring but a scorching hot summer was in 1995
Quote:
Originally Posted by B87
Summer 2009 here had slightly above average temperatures, but it was very cloudy and wet.
2008 and 2011 were very cool, cloudy and wet. 2015 had average temperatures, cloudy with a dry first half and wet 2nd half.
1989, 1995 and 2003 are still minor analogues for the upcoming summer, any of those would be good. 1989 was warm and sunny throughout, 1995 had a very poor June, but then a hot July and the hottest August on record. 2003 was warm throughout with the record hot spell in early August.
2008 saw normal temps with below normal number of hot days. 2011 was a very good summer. 2015 was lame. I believe just about normal in temps but well below normal in hot days
I wish I subscribed to him. He's good. I want to know what his updated summer analogs are
With 10 days left of May this is what the CFSv2 is currently showing for June. I don't buy it. There's going to be a big center of below normal temps in the Great Plains and maybe into the Midwest. Wait and see.
According to this 1968-69 and 1979-80 along with 2004-05 are analog years. Summer of 69 we had a very cool June, a coolish July and a warm August. Summer of 80 we had a cool June a very warm July and August. I can't understand how 2005 is an analog year. That summer was dry and hot in the Midwest. Exact opposite of what's happening now. I can't imagine the rains will just switch off like a light.
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,687,695 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
With 10 days left of May this is what the CFSv2 is currently showing for June. I don't buy it. There's going to be a big center of below normal temps in the Great Plains and maybe into the Midwest. Wait and see.
According to this 1968-69 and 1979-80 along with 2004-05 are analog years. Summer of 69 we had a very cool June, a coolish July and a warm August. Summer of 80 we had a cool June a very warm July and August. I can't understand how 2005 is an analog year. That summer was dry and hot in the Midwest. Exact opposite of what's happening now. I can't imagine the rains will just switch off like a light.
Yeah, this year has been nothing like 2005 here, 04-05 winter was a strong El Nino
Most models show either normal to slightly above normal precip for this summer. The CFSv2, DWD and NMME are showing the deluge continue through the summer with way above normal rain. JMA the only one showing a drier pattern for the summer.
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There's going to be a big center of below normal temps in the Great Plains and maybe into the Midwest. Wait and see. 
