Winter Storm March 2-4, 2018 (Chicago, storms, moving, clouds)
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I think the big winner will be central NY. Really to early to tell at this point.
More likely rain for most of the region. It's going to be about how fast the cold air catches up to the precip and where the coastal storm decides to be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjoseph
12 GFS has 7" for my location...12z Canadian has 13"
I saw the Canadian bullseye for you. Notice not much anywhere else. Hard to buy.
You're in a semi good location for this although you wont get much precip from the coastal storm. It will all depend on that Ohio Valley storm and the transfer of energy to the coastal.
You'll be in the colder air before the storm but we'll see how much of the warm surge hits you as the storm heads to the Ohio Valley Thursday.
While NAM is known for its wet bias and this is its long range you cant ignore the speed of the storm. Or is there even a speed?
Image is for Friday lunchtime but I added where it's showing the center of the low at 10pm vs 1pm. Barely moves for 12+hrs and sub 980mb???
This would definitely give the chance for areas to change over and accumulate snows because with the system that close, the cold air would be rushing in and there would still be precip around.
GFS places the low well out in the Atlantic and therefore not much snow around.
Interesting storm to track even if it's not an all out snowstorm. Not many times you'll see a storm stall off the coast! Heads up beaches for erosion & winds.
The farther north that Ohio Valley storm goes, the more rain we all get but the other key is where that storm transfers energy to the new coastal storm. Where?!
The farther south it transfers (like off Delaware) the more snow that will fall NYC north.
GFS transfers it over southern New England, way too late for decent snows but the higher elevation gets it
New NAM just out.. It just keeps reeling us back in.
I been impressed with NAM in recent yrs so we'll see. Its become more than a "broken clock" thing IMO.
Check out the Upper Low & Vort max!
This closed low is coming from the Great Lakes so it will drive cold air with it. Surface changes could be wicked from warm heavy rain to cold heavy snow in areas.
And here's the snow total from this update.
No other models show this so its an outlier for now.
New NAM model update...back to reality. MUCH less precip around when the cold air comes in which means lack of snow. This is called the Windshield Wiper effect. Back and Forth but majority and consensus says this is a rain storm for most. I wouldn't be surprised if folks above 2000' got a few inches with this storm.
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