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While we could get heavy rainfall, I think the flood threat should stay to my northwest this week with the influence from the SE ridge. At this time looks like no real cooldown coming with no low's below 60F in the forecast this week.
Quote:
Warm and breezy weather will continue into TUE, though moisture
depth is progged to increase by afternoon across E TX as a slow
moving frontal boundary approaches from the west. Still some model
spread on how far to the S and E this boundary will make it,
with the GFS still more aggressive in this regard than either the
CMC or ECMWF, with the latter still the least so. Still, the gap
has narrowed enough that a mostly even blend presents a good
compromise. While offering good rain chances WED and WED night
with at least some risk of locally heavy rainfall, general
consensus is for the better deep layer MSTR and forcing for ascent
to stay off to our NW as the deep layer ridging to our east bends
but doesn`t break, and actually flexes EWD for the end of the
week. Temperatures to depend in part on EWD progression of the
front, but will also be moderated by expected rains.
This winter has largely been a strange mixture of 2014/15 and 2011/12 in terms of the pattern. Deep Cold but dry waves alternating with milder but still largely continental air masses. Snow has generally been lacking with the sky generally being much brighter than normal for winter.
I don’t know about your location, but in Indianapolis this winter has had very little in common with the winter of 2011-2012, last winter was tied with 2011-2012 as being the tenth warmest winter on modern record, this winter has generally been colder than average, but without much in the way of rain or snow, I would say that this winter is a hybrid of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in terms of the weather patterns here in central Indiana
I don’t know about your location, but in Indianapolis this winter has had very little in common with the winter of 2011-2012, last winter was tied with 2011-2012 as being the tenth warmest winter on modern record, this winter has generally been colder than average, but without much in the way of rain or snow, I would say that this winter is a hybrid of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in terms of the weather patterns here in central Indiana
I'm in WNY but just outside of the Snowbelt (the lake snows usually miss my area). The Current winter has alternated between Cold and Dry and Mild and Dry. 2013-14 was a much colder winter than this one, 2014-15 even more so. In terms of numerical averages it's probably most similar in temps to 2012-13, but the pattern has generally alternated between colder periods similar to 2014-15 (at least in terms of temps) and milder surges similar to 2011-12. Usually staying dry though this winter. The east coast storm track that was a big feature in 2014-15 though seems to be missing in this winter so far. High Pressure seems to dominate at the surface similar to 2011-12 although the surface highs are much colder than they were during that winter.
I don’t know about your location, but in Indianapolis this winter has had very little in common with the winter of 2011-2012, last winter was tied with 2011-2012 as being the tenth warmest winter on modern record, this winter has generally been colder than average, but without much in the way of rain or snow, I would say that this winter is a hybrid of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 in terms of the weather patterns here in central Indiana
This winter will be one of the warmest ever for my area. Dec was warm. This month so far is off the charts and will be the hottest ever. Even with a colder Jan we will shatter records with a super hot Feb and March.
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