January 22-24, 2016 Northeast / Mid-Atlantic Major Snowstorm (places, rain, temps, Richmond)
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This could be the first storm in 13 years to dump a foot of snow on the entire Northeast megalopolis.
As in Boston to DC gets at least a foot of snow.
I noted this in the more localized CT version of this thread. But one thing about that stat that bothers me, I learned they based it strictly on snow totals for Boston, NYC, Philly, Baltimore and DC. There's a good 200 miles between Boston and NYC so if no one in CT and RI got a foot out of a snowfall but everyone else did, it still counts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
No party for your twins. Back to back memorable yrs for you. Don't even know if Sunday is a good idea since people will want to clean up and dig out. Tell everyone it's going to be next week instead.
My daughter is supposed to attend a friend's Bat Mitzvah in Greenwich on Saturday (I don't really know the family so it's just taking her there and picking her up.....I think it's not going to happen because unless it duds out soon I think the family has to think about whether to cancel in case out-of-town relatives can't make it.....a lot of the girl's family is from the West Coast) and on the 28th (some models have another snowstorm) said daughter has her band "winter concert" that night at school which I would be attending. Planning events in winter in the Northeast can (but not always) be dicey......
Anybody remember the snowmeggedon bust from a couple of years ago? How did the early tracking and forecasts of that one compare with this one so far?
Would need an exact date of the storm but would require some digging as well. (time consuming).
Memory only goes so far. lol.
But I will say ... The only times I remember model consistency such as we have now for days is with our bigger storms we had in recent years/decades.
I do believe I read somewhere that the Super storm of 1993 was very consistent too and back then there was no Euro I believe..It was some other model that picked it up and kept showing it.
October snowstorm, Sandy, Irene, Blizzard of 2010, 2013 all as well.
I will also say.. I've been following long enough to say that I've saw consistency fade away & bust as we got closer but only less than 10% of the time. Consistency is one of my keys in understanding the models.
This event is pretty scary as far as how consistent with ALL of them are. So people should be on alert for widespread 12"+ IMO and local areas up to 2 feet+. We don't know who that is yet
Power outages also going to be a concern with the wind. Drifts too. Nobody is going anywhere on Saturday north of Philly south of Concord. Friday for DC area.
Also .. with an Upper Low. THUNDERSNOW is very likely
Euro12z is much south more with the Upper Low and the storm ... that means .... much less snow for here and the whole snow total areas have changed. Wont have a snowmap from it until 2:30pm when it updates.
So now we should ask... is this because the system/energy is closer to land now with better data getting fed into the models, or is the Euro just off??
See it? Storm off North Carolina, not Virginia! Makes a HUGE difference where the heavy snows are.
QPF amounts:
Albany: 0.00"
Boston: 0.18" (All Snow)
Danbury: 0.21" (All Snow)
Philly: 0.88" (All Snow)
Atlantic City: 1.81" (All Snow, mixing for few hours)
DC: 1.99" (All Snow)
Raleigh: 2.52" (Ice to Rain to heavy Snow)
Euro12z is much south more with the Upper Low and the storm ... that means .... much less snow for here and the whole snow total areas have changed. Wont have a snowmap from it until 2:30pm when it updates.
So now we should ask... is this because the system/energy is closer to land now with better data getting fed into the models, or is the Euro just off??
See it? Storm off North Carolina, not Virginia! Makes a HUGE difference where the heavy snows are.
QPF amounts:
Albany: 0.00"
Boston: 0.18" (All Snow)
Danbury: 0.21" (All Snow)
Philly: 0.88" (All Snow)
Atlantic City: 1.81" (All Snow, mixing for few hours)
DC: 1.99" (All Snow)
Raleigh: 2.52" (Ice to Rain to heavy Snow)
Interesting that NWS is now showing a lot of RAIN mixing in for Atlantic City and some mixing for DC? For AC they are saying snow from 8am to 1pm then rain all of Saturday except for a brief changeover Sat. night. For DC it says "heavy snow" for Friday but "rain and snow" for most of Saturday before a brief changeover back to snow as well.
Philly and everywhere north NWS saying all snow, but have the "chances" lower (DC, Atlantic City and Philly they are showing 90% chance, NYC area and southern CT they are showing 70%, lower Upstate NY northern CT and Boston, they are showing 60%.
Interesting that NWS is now showing a lot of RAIN mixing in for Atlantic City and some mixing for DC? For AC they are saying snow from 8am to 1pm then rain all of Saturday except for a brief changeover Sat. night. For DC it says "heavy snow" for Friday but "rain and snow" for most of Saturday before a brief changeover back to snow as well.
Philly and everywhere north NWS saying all snow, but have the "chances" lower (DC, Atlantic City and Philly they are showing 90% chance, NYC area and southern CT they are showing 70%, lower Upstate NY northern CT and Boston, they are showing 60%.
Interesting. Keep in mind all the forecasts out there are based on previous runs (I believe 6-12+hrs before) so that forecast is from the overnight runs. Now I wonder how or if they'll changed based off this afternoons. I rarely see a forecast change instantly when the models update.
Tonight is a better night.. should see things a little clearer which means tomorrow afternoons forecast will reflect it.
Lets see if the Euro is a trend or just a bad run!
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