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The ridging in the west is certainly pushed by the warm SST there, no?
ULL meander across and buckle the jet. Depends which when and where they go
^^
We might see a cool spell around June 7-15th because of teleconnections. Not because of the +PDO.
How about this past winter? Sure there was +PDO and +SST's in the North Pacific, but that didn't stop the eastern 2/3rds of the US from being torched did it (especially the Midwest).
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Mark my words, there will be constant ridging in the west all summer due to that warm PDO, and likely troughs in the east cause of that PDO. Same as the last few summers. No major heat outbreaks in the East with the western ridge.
^^
Maybe not, but don't discount the Bermuda High and where it positions itself. If the Southeast remains dry. The ridge will build, and it will provide for at least bouts of heat along the east coast.
The way the pattern is now evolving, I can see my summer being similar to either 1998 or 1983. Let's see.
Still haven't heard your explanation as to why 36' and 83' were such torches (Midwest) even when the PDO was on fire
And let's see how this spring turns out.... March-April deviations
And like I said in another post, this end of the month warm shot, might put us at or above normal for the month if the forecast verifies.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 05-25-2016 at 10:15 AM..
Its basically showing normal East, warm west Rockies, notthern plains and into mid west and part of Ohio Valley. Otherwise fitting the theme of Warm West, Normal or cool east.
Mark my words, there will be constant ridging in the west all summer due to that warm PDO, and likely troughs in the east cause of that PDO. Same as the last few summers. No major heat outbreaks in the East with the western ridge.
You might be right.. we are on the brink of starting Summer now so this is fun to see it play out...
Look at the legend he used. Colors every 0.25°???
Its basically showing normal East, warm west Rockies, notthern plains and into mid west and part of Ohio Valley. Otherwise fitting the theme of Warm West, Normal or cool east.
So +PDO implies a warmer Midwest because we aren't as far down stream as the east is?
Here are those years with colors for every degree deviation
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Originally Posted by Cambium
You might be right.. we are on the brink of starting Summer now so this is fun to see it play out...
So +PDO implies a warmer Midwest because we aren't as far down stream as the east is?
No, because its allowing the Jet stream to rise in the west and dip in the east. Mid west gets the warm west overflow from the ridge but the east is under lower heights because of it
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Let's see how this plays out. Remember the PDO in 1983 was June 2.36 July: 3.51 Aug: 1.85. Other teleconnections a factor too for sure...
Keep using 1 or 2 moments in time. Doesnt work. Gotta go by the averages, thats all we got. Otherwise we both are cherry picking at years or months that support our position.
No, because its allowing the Jet stream to rise in the west and dip in the east. Mid west gets the warm west overflow from the ridge but the east is under lower heights because of it
Let's see if that' the case this summer. What about the warm water's off the Atlantic?
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Keep using 1 or 2 moments in time. Doesnt work. Gotta go by the averages, thats all we got. Otherwise we both are cherry picking at years or months that support our position.
I understand it's just a few examples. But 1983 has been said by many weather "experts" as being a possible analog year as it had a strong +PDO and transitioning La Nina.
No, because its allowing the Jet stream to rise in the west and dip in the east. Mid west gets the warm west overflow from the ridge but the east is under lower heights because of it
Keep using 1 or 2 moments in time. Doesnt work. Gotta go by the averages, thats all we got. Otherwise we both are cherry picking at years or months that support our position.
I think he's doing this because he's saying a cold summer under those circumstances is not a sure bet.
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