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Good question. Typically an amplified pattern means just that or at least close. Well, we seen record hot temps happen in Canada, why not record cold on the other side?
The airmass at 5000' is simply not cold enough. The coldest pocket is well north by Hudson bay and didn't flow down into the U.S. It's actually above freezing at 5000 feet in Quebec. So the air mass aloft is simply not cold enough for record cold. There might be some locations that are coming close maybe especially near the Cut Off low in the OV or Mid Atlantic?
Also factor in Clouds. With a cloudy night in Spring there has to be some crazy cold airmass happening for record lows.
Records? This setup isn't good for record lows; too cloudy no radiational cooling. Cold nights in May need at least some clear skies. This isn't an arctic air outbreak or "polar vortex" similar to last early April or mid February. We are flirting with breaking a record cold daily high temperature, but didn't quite break, maybe a few spots at the center of the cut-off low broke a record. Remember early June 2015? That was a similar cloudy spell and one day (52/46) had temperatures about as cold as yesterday.
The departures from average here haven't been that huge (-7.5°F on the coldest day) because the nights haven't been that cold, the length of cold days combined with the lack of sun is what's special about this not the temperatures.
Records? This setup isn't good for record lows; too cloudy no radiational cooling. Cold nights in May need at least some clear skies. This isn't an arctic air outbreak or "polar vortex" similar to last early April or mid February. .
Yup. That's why I said this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
So the air mass aloft is simply not cold enough for record cold.
Also factor in Clouds. With a cloudy night in Spring there has to be some crazy cold airmass happening for record lows.
Then you said this....
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
We are flirting with breaking a record cold daily high temperature, but didn't quite break, maybe a few spots at the center of the cut-off low broke a record. .
and I said this ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
There might be some locations that are coming close maybe especially near the Cut Off low in the OV or Mid Atlantic?
I think we said the same exact things with both posts. LOL
Should be walking outside in Short Sleeves at least, even shorts... Nope... Now we have a NNE wind and look at what it feels like. LMAO. 30s in spots. Even the 40s is cold for this time of year.
Same here as the mountains of Virginia & North Carolina
True, though I think the clouds are more important than the air mass isn't cold enough. Even the coldest airmass would have trouble breaking cold records if it's cloudy. Though cloudy + arctic air may not be possible once the front passes. Is much more so upstate NY, but the clouds have to lift to get really cold nights.
Should be walking outside in Short Sleeves at least, even shorts... Nope... Now we have a NNE wind and look at what it feels like. LMAO. 30s in spots. Even the 40s is cold for this time of year.
Without the wind chill, Mt. Washington is 30°F and in the clouds. Must be a gloomy hike there. Trail reports say lower elevations are wet and muddy, higher elevations extremely icy. But there aren't many trail reports, I expect all but the most avid hikers are avoiding mountain hiking. Yuck.
High hasn't been below 60 since first half of April. It would be abnormal for a high to be below 60 in may, average min high in may is 62, 75 for June, 78for july, 76 for august, 68 for September, 56 for October, so it shouldn't be below 60 till October.
Reason I bring this up because it's 60 right now exact, was below that earlier and parts of the piedmont are sitting in the low 50s, which is almost 30 degrees below normmal, and uncommon for may.
Forecast is all 80s as far as I can see starting on Sunday. Why are we going to be warm but not the northeast?
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