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Man, thats one depressing map. We've been having warmer winters out here in Colorado, and this has allowed all sorts of insect pests to survive the winter in large numbers. Come spring, they all hatch out to munch on our aspen and pine trees. You can now see large stands of dead trees in the Colorado mountains - very sad. And there's an insect species that specializes in each tree species, so no trees are safe these days. Its like we're experiencing the 7 plagues of Egypt around here.
I did see where the coming El Nino year is supposed to bring more precip to the American West? If so, good because we really need a good winter snow pack in the mountains to help break the over-all drought we've been experiencing. Fingers crossed on that one.
Man, thats one depressing map. We've been having warmer winters out here in Colorado, and this has allowed all sorts of insect pests to survive the winter in large numbers. Come spring, they all hatch out to munch on our aspen and pine trees. You can now see large stands of dead trees in the Colorado mountains - very sad. And there's an insect species that specializes in each tree species, so no trees are safe these days. Its like we're experiencing the 7 plagues of Egypt around here.
I did see where the coming El Nino year is supposed to bring more precip to the American West? If so, good because we really need a good winter snow pack in the mountains to help break the over-all drought we've been experiencing. Fingers crossed on that one.
The good news is (or bad news depending on your preference) that the CFSv2 is notoriously bad in forecasting downstream feedbacks.
Also we may have an El Nino that morphs into a Modoki by December
Man, thats one depressing map. We've been having warmer winters out here in Colorado, and this has allowed all sorts of insect pests to survive the winter in large numbers. Come spring, they all hatch out to munch on our aspen and pine trees. You can now see large stands of dead trees in the Colorado mountains - very sad. And there's an insect species that specializes in each tree species, so no trees are safe these days. Its like we're experiencing the 7 plagues of Egypt around here.
I did see where the coming El Nino year is supposed to bring more precip to the American West? If so, good because we really need a good winter snow pack in the mountains to help break the over-all drought we've been experiencing. Fingers crossed on that one.
I know what your saying.
Western forests have been devastated by mountain pine beetle,
over 60 million acres of trees from central BC to northern NM.
Meanwhile we in southern Ontario are dealing with the "emerald" ash borer, killing millions of ash trees.
Western forests have been devastated by mountain pine beetle,
over 60 million acres of trees from central BC to northern NM.
Meanwhile we in southern Ontario are dealing with the "emerald" ash borer, killing millions of ash trees.
Yep, I've seen pictures of the damage done to Canada's forests as well. And that damn emerald ash borer is showing up in Colorado now, too. For example, the city of Boulder is starting to lose all its ash trees due to it. Since 1996, approximately 3.4 million acres of lodgepole, ponderosa and five-needle pines have been impacted by the outbreak of mountain pine beetle in Colorado. I HATE, HATE, HATE these unusually warm winters we've been experiencing because I know they will bring about the deaths of even more trees in our forests.
That was an excellent discussion. He makes a good case for a 57-58 analog (a JB has been saying all along). Btw Tom, he stated that the winter of 57/58 Philly received 42 inches of snow
Though in not so sure this September will end up cool in the Central US which was the case in 57/87 as he showed at the beginning of the video
First half of September anomalies, significantly warmer than normal. Models don't suggest any major long cool spell for the second half of the month
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-13-2015 at 07:02 PM..
"Look at the moisture plume coming here off the, this makes me nervous about the Northeast because, you can still get an above normal month for month of December...lack of Arctic airs.. but doesn't mean you can't get any snow... I'm a little nervous, everyone is saying we're waiting to February for everything to happen...I'm a little nervous that some point in December maybe late December we start getting nailed with some snow events in the East"
(picture omitted)
On that note..
Richmond got 4.5" November 11, 1987. That month was above normal with temps. So if the moisture is available and the timing is right, we can still get snow even though consensus is showing above normal!
I just don't like how there is absolutely no arctic air being shown.
I believe last year we were seeing it being projected by now. Maybe not
Even in relatively snowless 1972-3 winter (for New York City 2.9" inches for the winter, almost all 1/29/1973), another winter with a similar super El Niño, we had a near-miss on December 15, 1972. Central Park got nothing, in Scarsdale we got about 2", then an icy mix, then back to a snow-sleet mix. When all was said and done about 4", a major mess, and iron cold (my tuba valve froze) on 12/16-18/1972. And I don't know if December 2002 wound up above or below normal (it was close) we had 5" of fluffy, dry snow on December 5, and about 8" of rain changing to snow on Christmas Day. Ditto December 2009. All major El Niños.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
I think this winter will play out in one of the four scenarios I have boxed
Let's pray for the Modokai.
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