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Here's a list of Novembers in moderate-strong El Nino years by average temperature and the by following winter's snowfall. The 1950-2014 November average temperature is 50.7 F, and the average snowfall is 6.7". All data for RDU.
Year / November temperature in given year / Next winter's snowfall
2009 / 53.2 / 8.0
2002 / 49.1 / 7.4
1997 / 47.3 / 2.4
1991 / 50.0 / T
1987 / 52.8 / 7.9
1986 / 52.9 / 10.8
1982 / 51.9 / 11.8
1972 / 48.1 / 11.3
1965 / 50.9 / 11.8
1963 / 51.0 / 3.5
1957 / 51.7 / 7.9
As you can see, 6/7 warmer than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters, but only 2/4 colder than normal Novembers resulted in snowier than normal winters.
I was just looking at this post I made three months ago, and I realized that if we don't see more snow this winter, this will be the least snowy El Nino year with a warm November on record. Considering the upcoming cold snap isn't going to produce much for me in the way of precipitation, it is very possible that we won't see another snowfall.
On a slightly unrelated note, while February will knock this winter out of the top 10 warmest, right now 2015-16 is tied with 1949-50 for the 4th warmest winter to date. Only 1889-90, 1931-32, and 1932-33 had a warmer start.
I was just looking at this post I made three months ago, and I realized that if we don't see more snow this winter, this will be the least snowy El Nino year with a warm November on record. .
Nice rollback. If theres a pattern for you to get some, this is it!! In fact, the futher south this vortex goes the better your chances and less for me.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
Well 1 thing looks to be certain... there is no warmth in sight.
Snowpacks will last longer.
Here's Danbury,CT data Euro12z
Notice we stay cold now but notice another reinforcing shot of Arctic air and thats even deeper.
Nice rollback. If theres a pattern for you to get some, this is it!! In fact, the futher south this vortex goes the better your chances and less for me.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
Well 1 thing looks to be certain... there is no warmth in sight.
Snowpacks will last longer.
Here's Danbury,CT data Euro12z
Notice we stay cold now but notice another reinforcing shot of Arctic air and thats even deeper.
Heres Raleigh
feel like euro always over does the cold. Huh February 2015 here we go again. The song "here we go again" has been playing in my head after seeing this but models been flopping all over the place I would not put too much weight in them right now. average high rises to 54 tomorrow. 59 in Wilmington.
feel like euro always over does the cold. Huh February 2015 here we go again. The song "here we go again" has been playing in my head after seeing this but models been flopping all over the place I would not put too much weight in them right now. average high rises to 54 tomorrow. 59 in Wilmington.
GFS typically does, not Euro but yeah, look at the pattern, more than the exacts. Cold is the theme going forward.
Check out Burlington's data from the Euro. Gees
483-485 Thickness for a good 18hrs. 850mb temps to -33C?! Whoa. That would be record for Albany, probably near extreme for Burlington for mid February? They don't do Balloon Launches there, so not sure. Would have to check the surface temp history
In todays case... the Euro is the most aggressive with the Polar Vortex diving south.
THEY ALL have the digging Trough into Eastern US though and the 8-10 day is aimed right for the Northeast. Entire Eastern U.S near or below normal next 10 days
We all know Euro's track record from 5 days out... No other model does better
GFS typically does, not Euro but yeah, look at the pattern, more than the exacts. Cold is the theme going forward.
Check out Burlington's data from the Euro. Gees
483-485 Thickness for a good 18hrs. 850mb temps to -33C?! Whoa. That would be record for Albany, probably near extreme for Burlington for mid February? They don't do Balloon Launches there, so not sure. Would have to check the surface temp history
come to think of it yeah that is true the gfs greatly overstates the cold. Just looking back at last week shows me that. The cold it had showed for Wednesdays arctic blast was very overstated now it trended a lot warmer. Not to say that it wont suddenly trend a lot colder but it is safe to say the probability of it doing so at this point is not that much. As for next weekends arctic blast if it would trend just a little warmer I would be fine with the cold. Any colder i will be pissed.
Looks focused on the northeast. We've probably seen the coldest temp of the winter.
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