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I've decided to try a little experiment. Where I live, it feels like summer when temperatures average >22 C / 72 F and winter when they average <8 C / 46 F. This also gives us (roughly) a 3.5 month summer and 3 month winter, which makes sense because we do tend to get a bit of seasonal lag in September.
I've used a 21-day running average (the day, 10 days prior, and 10 days after) to determine when each season began and ended. For instance, the temperature for November 5, 2014 was 49.8, taking the means of all days from October 26 - November 15.
If the temperature dropped below 46 and stayed there, or fell below 46 and stayed there longer than any late fall >46 spells, I called it winter. For instance, in 2014, it was below 46 from Nov. 8 - 28 and above 46 from Nov. 29 - Dec. 2 before falling below 46 for the rest of the winter. Therefore, I called anything from November 8 winter. Ditto for summer, but with 72. For spring, replace "fell below" with "rose above" and "late fall >46" with "late winter <46"
On average:
Winter: November 26 - March 1
Spring: March 2 - May 31
Summer: June 1 - September 15
Fall: September 16 - November 25
Winter 2015: November 8 - March 7 (Peak: February 20) - 30.3 F!
Spring 2015: March 8 - May 31
Summer 2015: June 1 - September 18 (Peak: July 19) - 82.7 F
Fall 2015: September 19 - January 2
Winter 2016: January 3 - February 21 (Peak: January 14) - 34.3 F
Spring 2016: February 22 - May 25
Summer 2016: May 26 - (Peak: July 28) - 83.9 F!
-Nov. 2014 cold wave extended winter, but winter was mostly mild except February which was very cold. Peak of winter was very late
-Despite back-loaded winter, spring 2015 was only delayed by six days. May 13-31 hovered on the precipice of summer with running means within a degree of 72, but summer started right on schedule
-Summer 2015 was near average, running just three days late on the end. September's above average temperature seemed to be skewed mostly by the heat wave in the first 9 days of the month
-Fall 2015 ran all the way into the New Year, ending over a month later than typical.
-Winter 2016 was short, but had a big snow storm
-Spring 2016 both started and finished early
-Summer 2016 started about a week early, with the running mean for May 26 being exactly 72. As of September 20, 2016 it is ongoing with every day having a mean above 72 since June 10, and the forecast suggesting only two such dates through the end of September (9/28-29, with forecasted means of 71 each). My estimate is that summer runs until around October 5.
Thing is, most tropical locations are extremely stable, and lows of 77 F or higher don't happen often there. Honestly, I think 22 C is a good threshold for "tropical" nights. 20 C is a bit too low IMO, that's a pretty standard low for a lot of continental locations in the summer, also there's places in the tropics that have never even gone down to 20 C.
BTW Wawa, not to nitpick, but 21 C is actually 69.8 F, not 69.6 F but yes either way it rounds up to 70 F.
I live in the tropics and they do happen fairly often especially during the warmer months (in my country the warmest months would mean April to June on average), especially if you live in a major metro area with urban island heat effect.
Bodø (67 17 N 14 24 E) inside the Arctic Circle will in the new normal almost certain have 4 months with mean above 10C (Jun - Sep). The mean of the coldest month will be ca -1.5C. This might still not be the northernmost Cfb (or Dfb is you prefer 0C in coldest month) as that might be Svolvær. But it will be the northernmost city of some size (pop 50,000).
In 2013, Bodø recorded 5 months with mean above 10C.
Record low is -18.5C.
Interesting. Remains to be seen when you release the............. 1981-2010 normals. Stupid Cods.
Records: The record low in Italy ever measured is -49.6C in Fradusta, Trentino-Alto Adige, as recently as in February 2013. Only 4 countries in Europe have colder record lows; Russia, Sweden, Finland and Norway. Turkey has recorded -50.3C, but it's in the Asian part.
In Raleigh in October 1919 the temperature never got below 48°F (9°C). The average low drops below 48 on October 21, however. An average October drops to 34.
In Raleigh in October 1919 the temperature never got below 48°F (9°C). The average low drops below 48 on October 21, however. An average October drops to 34.
I'd be so pissed living in Raleigh in October 1919. I bet it was still more than 90% green on November 1 that year.
Yesterday Sep 26th: 20.3C / 68.5F in Skibotn in Storfjord, Troms Province, far northern Norway. Latest autumn day above 20C in recorded history in Troms province, well north of the Arctic Circle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storfjord
Today Sep 27th: Longyearbyen in the High Arctic went above 10C / 50F, latest autumn day in recorded history above 10C.
Alert, Nunavut has only had rain once in the months of October to April inclusive. 0.3 mm... on January 23, 1958. That total even beats May's rainiest ever day, May 21, 1988 with 0.2 mm.
The rainiest ever day in Alert's history dropped just 18.8 mm - July 26, 1968. Alert's snowiest day was September 13, 1980 with 25.2 cm. I've seen more than that in a day in White House, TN - 30 cm on January 22, 2016 and it melted quickly enough I was able to drive 92 miles on January 27.
Their deepest snow depth ever was on June 4, 1956 at 89 cm.
You know your climate is polar when the deepest snow depth was recorded in the summer and it's only rained once in seven whole months of the year.
September 2016:
Warmest Sep ever in Norway as a whole. Record for country as a whole back to 1900.
Hokksund recorded 23 days at or above 20C / 68F in Sep. New record. Previous national record was 16 days.
Last edited by Jakobsli; 10-03-2016 at 03:24 PM..
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