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Here we go with yet another coastal storm. Ski resorts are going to love this one. Not confident at all for I-95 areas at this point. (its always tough!)
And here's what NWS NY says.. Keep in mind they only cover southern half of CT so "interior" means near me. They prefer the Euro and the stronger storm scenario, North and West of NYC maybe a significant snowfall.
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2014
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST BEGINNING MON NIGHT. SIDING MORE AND MORE WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION PER LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF FOR THIS EVENT...
AS AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM PHASES WITH A PAIR OF DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES MIGRATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES AND DESERT SW IN SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT...AND A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OFF
THE SE COAST. TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT TUE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY INTENSIFY OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSMEAN DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ON...WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
TRENDING TOWARD A MORE INTENSE LOW WITH WARM SECLUSION REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY TUE NIGHT NEAR THE NY BIGHT...AND THE 00Z ENSMEAN SHOWING
A MORE OFFSHORE LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER PHASING OF THE VARIOUS STREAMS ALOFT...THINK THE OPERATIONAL
TREND IS MORE ON TRACK.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
NIGHT-TUE MORNING...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS...COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST.
THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP...THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING
INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY.
AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY...WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
And before this storm Maine has another half foot coming on Sunday. Maine is getting hammered with snow this winter already. Bangor with almost half their season total already. It just turned December!
GFS finally on board, 3 days before. Is it even worth mentioning that model?
MAIN HAZARD LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH AS POLAR
HIGH BUILDS INTO ONTARIO QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAS NOW COME INTO GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ON PHASING OF NORTHERN
STREAM...PAC..AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE
CENTRAL US...WITH A PHASED AND STRONGLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH THEN
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND THEN CUTTING OFF AND SLOWLY
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. IN
RESPONSE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST STRENGTHENS AND RETROGRADES
N/NE UP THE NE COAST.
AREAS WELL N&W OF NYC HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE FRONT END AND BACK END OF THE
SYSTEM
This has, and continues to be, an interior snow event with the highest elevations getting hammered as has been seen with the Canadian and Euro for days now. Nothings really changed from that. Always safe to go with consensus unless there's a drastic change.. That's my take.
This is not to avoid that lower elevations and even near the coast doesn't see snow at the beginning and end of the event but the bigger headline should be for interior.
Monday night You have an upper level low digging down towards the great lakes and swinging across but it digs far enough south to catch the coastal storm.
How cool is that???? These senarios can be one of the most snow producing ones.
In simple terms, a storm in the upper level of the atmosphere over Canada is going to put itself over a surface storm off the coast. Dynamics of that are amazing to see. The lift it causes = more precip. The amount of cold air it injects into the storm = more snow for NW side of the storm.
Now just imagine if that ULL dropped further south and caught a storm off the Mid Atlantic instead. BOOM. Major snowstorm/blizzard from DC to Boston! THATS NOT HAPPENING WITH THIS ONE.
but you have to appreciate 2 things even if you're the one not getting snow...
1. The models ability to see this atmospheric setup a week before
2. The creation of this event with ingredients coming into place, and the result it produces
Again... How fascinating is it that #1, models saw the connection while the energy was across the globe?????
#2. How all this is coming together while things are still in the Pacific????
Current North Pacific Water Vapor Image showing where the systems are currently.
The southern piece is going to enter Southern California shortly.
The northern piece is in the Gulf of Alaska and will rotate around the big upper low off the coast of northern California. It will be interesting to watch these two pieces head east.
You can see how far apart they are currently but that distance is forecast to narrow as we go through time. It will be fascinating to see what will result from these two pieces of energy. I feel that they do not merge close enough to New England and early next week's system is weak for the Northeast and really doesn't get cooking until it is too far east. This is something to watch.
Another look at next week's storm. Talk about a block. Where is the storm going to go?? It's not. It will either sit and spin (lots of moisture!!) or just deteriorate and wind itself down
Euro12z says at hr 96 Wed morning, 850mb temps will be +4C over Lebanon, NH while -4C over Atlantic City as the cold air wraps around the center of the storm. Heavy snowstorm interior but places like MA and NH could be snow to heavy rain to heavy snow scenario.
Euro doesn't like NYC. Storm goes right over. UGH!
Euro12z says at hr 96 Wed morning, 850mb temps will be +4C over Lebanon, NH while -4C over Atlantic City as the cold air wraps around the center of the storm. Heavy snowstorm interior but places like MA and NH could be snow to heavy rain to heavy snow scenario.
Euro doesn't like NYC. Storm goes right over. UGH!
That is a sloppy garbage scenario, but the trend is your friend. Last few systems have switched from snow to rain. 12Z GFS track appears slightly further east of the Euro, closer to the benchmark.
That is a sloppy garbage scenario, but the trend is your friend. Last few systems have switched from snow to rain. 12Z GFS track appears slightly further east of the Euro, closer to the benchmark.
Yup, waiting for AccuPro to finish loading to see the snow total maps and some soundings.
Here's an animation of the 500mb heights.. Hour 48 Monday morning to Hour 144 Friday morning.
Focus on that blue dip over the Great Lakes, watch how it swings and then catches the surface low.
Just love that "catch". Timing is everything with weather. Just imagine if that ULL was faster or dug a bit deeper and it caught the surface Low near Virginia instead.
Look at it like this... Weather Events are like the lotto in the sense that there are so many different results and solutions that can happen. Just a few miles/numbers makes a big difference.
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