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This article from months ago forecasted a cold winter based on Siberian snow cover. Wonder if he just got lucky or he was right?
Cohen’s method proposes that when snow increases rapidly and over a large area over Eurasia during October, it is a strong indication that a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will average in its negative phase during winter. When the AO is negative, it favors cold air outbreaks into the eastern U.S. and western Europe, that can also set the stage for snowstorms.
The AO is positive, and he forecasted negative all winter. This is why Europe is warm, because the AO and NAO are positive. Normally that means warm in the US east. But we in North America have the PNA which is what is causing this cold. North America has far more teleconnections impacting our weather than anywhere else. This was explained to me by Andrew on the Weather Center. It is why we have more anomalous weather in winter than just about anywhere. This winter would be over if not for the PNA. I've heard though that the PNA is crashing in late Feb and then we will get warmer.
All they worry about in Europe is the NAO and the AO. But the NAO impacts them far more than the AO. So really all they have to worry about is the NAO. Usually the -AO sends the arctic fronts to North America and not Europe.
Me, you and few others in this forum were all over that snowcover in the Fall. Quick search I found this...
Posted October 20th, 2014. Guess the NAO didn't cooperate but one must wonder. It also has influence on the Polar Vortex which has been closer to North America again.
Posted October 20th. Gotta love a Warm Pacific in this sense.
PNA due to the crazy warm waters there pushing the ridge up. AO is positive along with the NAO.
Yup... There's always something that ruins the fun (or keeps it for some). So many players on the field that work together its so hard to know what will happen months away.. Had the PDO cooled maybe the Western Ridge wouldn't of happened and the PNA not been so positive, I bet you we would of had a Winter like how December was in the East.(warm)
The AO is positive, and he forecasted negative all winter. This is why Europe is warm, because the AO and NAO are positive. Normally that means warm in the US east. But we in North America have the PNA which is what is causing this cold. North America has far more teleconnections impacting our weather than anywhere else. This was explained to me by Andrew on the Weather Center. It is why we have more anomalous weather in winter than just about anywhere. This winter would be over if not for the PNA. I've heard though that the PNA is crashing in late Feb and then we will get warmer.
All they worry about in Europe is the NAO and the AO. But the NAO impacts them far more than the AO. So really all they have to worry about is the NAO. Usually the -AO sends the arctic fronts to North America and not Europe.
So that guy Siberian air snow connection is inaccurate, then?
Checking the 10 day forecast, definitely looks like there's a break from the very frequent snow we've been getting, small storm next weekend. Jet Stream moved a bit? Thursday and Friday look very cold, but it'll be briefer than the previous Arctic blast.
So far this month has been the coldest month since February 1934.
Wow! You made me check something... More WOW. Hartford since 1905 the coldest month on record is January 1970 16.8° Average. This month... 16.2°. 2 weeks left though.
Edit...correction.. Feb 1934 was coldest month with 16.5°
After rebounding into the 20s we all dropped off quick after sunset.
So far this month has been the coldest month since February 1934.
Oops, my post is not so impressive after all.
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