Wilmington, NC Discussion. posting most of it because it's so interesting to see them talk about snow that far south. I'll highlight some stuff.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014
THE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR SLEET OR ICE IS
INCREASING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BRING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TODAY STALLING OFFSHORE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY... WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AHEAD...THE QUESTION IS
WHAT WILL IT BE AND TIME OF ONSET?
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING ALONG
LINGERING COLD FRONT RUNNING UP FROM FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT RIDES UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE
WATERS FROM SW TO NE THROUGH TUES INTO WED.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN NEAR THE SURFACE IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BUT
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE POSSIBLY A WARM LAYER TOO DEEP
TO GET SNOW NEAR THE COAST...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
THE SOUNDINGS AND
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SATURATION THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE TUES
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING BUT IT COULD LINGER RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST UNTIL WED NIGHT. NAM SHOWS ONSET OF PCP AS EARLY AS TUES
MORNING WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A LATER START TIME...BY TUES AFTN.
NO QUESTION THAT THERE WILL BE SATURATION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE BUT THE
WARM NOSE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY RUN FROM AROUND
3500 FT UP TO 8K FT ALONG THE COAST WITH LIMITED...IF ANY...WARM
NOSE INLAND ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT. THE 0C LINE AT H85 WILL BISECT
OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA RUNNING FROM SW TO NE TUES MORNING. THE
MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS LINE WILL BE WITH GFS
MOVING IT FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE NAM PUSHES IT
TOWARD THE EAST. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SNOW/SLEET AND PLACES EAST WILL MIX BETWEEN SLEET AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. LOOKS LIKE THE TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH IN A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER CLOSER TO THE SFC TO LEAN TOWARD
SLEET MORE SO THAN FREEZING RAIN.
AS LOW DEPARTS ON WED AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER
SOUTH...TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SNOW BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE WANING.
THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST TIME
FOR SNOW ALONG THE COAST AND MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS ON WED BEFORE
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP SHOULD END THROUGH THE MORNING INLAND BUT
MAY LAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPS ON TUES SHOULD FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE UNDER MAX CAA
WITH TEMPS FALLING AND LEVELING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD DROP TO FREEZING OR BELOW EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND MAINLY ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES IN BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TUES NIGHT AND MAY NOT MAKE IT MUCH PAST 30
ON WED IN CONTINUED CAA ON BACK END OF LOW.
DEPENDING ON THE
SNOWFALL COVERAGE TEMPS ON THURS MAY END UP COLDER BUT KEEPING
TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT.
AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER INLAND SECTIONS AROUND
I-95 CORRIDOR TUES
NIGHT WHILE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.