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Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have been near average since spring 2012, and forecasters expect that to continue through the winter. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected to influence the climate during the upcoming winter.
“It’s a challenge to produce a long-term winter forecast without the climate pattern of an El Niño or a La Niña in place out in the Pacific because those climate patterns often strongly influence winter
temperature and precipitation here in the United States,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Without this strong seasonal influence, winter weather is often affected by short-term climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that are not predictable beyond a week or two. So it’s important to pay attention to your local daily weather forecast throughout the winter.”
The Precipitation Outlook favors:
Below-average precipitation in the Southwest, Southeast and the Alaskan panhandle.
Above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, particularly over Montana and northern Wyoming and in Hawaii.
The Temperature Outlook favors:
Below-average temperatures in the Northern Plains and the Alaskan Panhandle.
Above-average temperatures in the Southwest, the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, New England and western Alaska.
Wide range of temps currently on the US mainland....bitter cold up in the northern interior with temps near 0 F....while in the 70's and 80's in the deep subtropics:
For NOAA to come out with a winter forecast where much of the country has an "equal" chance of seeing below or above normal temps translates to there is a good chance of seeing below normal temps.
CFV2 run for December looks a lot like what we saw in 09/10'
[quote=chicagogeorge;32353877]Run after run, CFV2 says above normal snowfall for the Christmas season. Only one of the runs, looks impressive for my area.
Chicagogeorge, Whether your area of the country gets heavy snow for Christmas is to put bluntly is really out of your or anybody elses control, I am presuming that you are a Chicago area resident by your avatar name, this Holiday season may be bitterly cold and dry, It may be Mild and rainy, It may be Mild and Sunny, It may just be typical and with average cold and a typical amount of snow either already on the ground or falling for the Christmas season, whatever the case, humans must learn that we are not in control of the weather, mother nature is. Also, just because this model is saying it will be extremely cold and or snowy, doesn't necessarily mean that will be the case, going back to my previous statement/s, I myself also have seen what that CFV2 with temperature and precipitation and what it has been doing over the past several weeks to the last few months, and have noticed that the temperature anomalies seem to be prone to reversing or flip flopping, at times rather radically from previous anomaly readings in the weeks before i.e. from very warm to no signal to very cold etc. This I find is a sign that either this model is either extremely unreliable months in advance or is just not stable in its anomaly predictions. I feel that time will tell whether you wish will verify. I don't know about you, But I personally find -20 F temperatures deplorable/detestable, however, leave it to your preferences, it is your right to enjoy that sort of cold if you wish.
Model runs are fun to play with, and yes that time frame (one month out) is in the "fantasy realm" especially in forecasting precip.
Models can't even agree 4 or 5 days out
Btw, during the winter -20F with blizzard conditions is perfect! As long as I am compensated with 90+ degree heat and 70F+ dew points during the summer
Model runs are fun to play with, and yes that time frame (one month out) is in the "fantasy realm" especially in forecasting precip.
Models can't even agree 4 or 5 days out
Btw, during the winter -20F with blizzard conditions is perfect! As long as I am compensated with 90+ degree heat and 70F+ dew points during the summer
You sure do belong in a continental climate. No wonder you are always disparaging the climate of London. You love extremes. Personally I detest the temps flip flopping all over. I'm glad it happens pretty much only in late Fall, Winter, and early Spring. Summer is my favorite, and just so happens to be the most stable temp wise.
Model runs are fun to play with, and yes that time frame (one month out) is in the "fantasy realm" especially in forecasting precip.
Models can't even agree 4 or 5 days out
It's when there is a lack of snowfall that the bitter cold comes that really makes the cold snap A bust. I don't think I could handle being outdoors in 20 below degree weather well, if I could handle it at all. The coldest I can ever remember ever actually being outside was when it was in the 12 to 14 Below Zero Range, and that was back in 1997. I tolerate Heat and Humidity MUCH Better than I Tolerate Bitter Cold Temps!
Btw, during the winter -20F with blizzard conditions is perfect! As long as I am compensated with 90+ degree heat and 70F+ dew points during the summer
Agreed, if its cold then it might as well snow! I, as a southerner living in the Midwest, can more than agree completely in tolerating better 90+Degree Heat with 70+ Degree Dew Points, Coz where I'm from, weather like this often persists for weeks or even at times months without a break from such high heat or humidity(Temps in 90's Dew Points Above 70), unlike the Midwest which such humidity with the heat only comes in short lived bursts of usually a few days at a time.
Model runs are fun to play with, and yes that time frame (one month out) is in the "fantasy realm" especially in forecasting precip.
Models can't even agree 4 or 5 days out
True. You can usually discern a general pattern 1-3 weeks out, though specifics are elusive until a few days out. Consensus and consistency is key, as is sniffing out the possibilities (which sometimes bear fruit and sometimes don't).
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Block MiamiHurricane from seeing the 2nd map!!!
