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Ok.. lets do this again. Feels like once a month I've been looking at some stuff and trying to grasp the long range. Lets see if I can go 3 for 3.
Current water vapor image showing some interesting things.
1. that dry air diving south right into the Sub Jet. Look at the sub jet like a constant faucet stream going into Mexico and U.S. If that gets shut off, then moisture needed for storms gets starved (but can still tap the Gulf of Mexico for it)
I noticed it's narrow now AND is slowly getting choked off by the sinking dry air.
I have to keep an eye on whether the Sub jet activates again, otherwise the potential for stormy weather in the U.S is much much less.
2. The black arrows show strong convection over the pacific. That might be the key in getting that Sub jet juicy again soon which I think will happen after mid month.
3.The curling line is around a strong Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska which is digging a trough southwards. That means it's popping and pushing the Ridge Eastwards. In other words, there's still a ridge out West which is keeping this overall pattern in place as we warm up in the East. In other words this warm up is temporary and the cold NW flow will return.
So, if there are less storms in northern Pacific and more dry air cutting the moisture source than I will say winter is done for the East. I can then see the southeast ridge building back up.
That's not what I'm thinking right now... Ridge should stay out west and that will carve a trough in center and eastern part of the U.S and the sub jet will come back to life . So I think Jan 20 to end of February becomes active again with the Jan26-Feb15 period the peak). I might even stretch it and call for an early Spring to roll around. We'll see.
Interesting, not sure if I get it though. How does the bolded connect? The Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska is keeping the ridge in place out on the west coast?
Trying to change over to frozen precip. So interesting to see! Lightly snowing with frozen pellet mix. Even some flakes have more frozen liquid on them. So the snow must be falling, hitting a tiny warm layer, then refreezing some of the melt while some snowflakes make it through that layer. Fascinating!
Interesting, not sure if I get it though. How does the bolded connect? The Upper Low in the Gulf of Alaska is keeping the ridge in place out on the west coast?
Put it this way...The ridge can't shift West over the Pacific because of it.... If you play the loop you can see the low and the flow digging down in that area.
From HPC mentioning the trough near Aleutian islands which leads to West coast Ridging and Mid West and East Trough.
Quote:
1040 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 VALID 12Z MON JAN 13 2014 - 12Z FRI JAN 17 2014
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED FLOWPATTERN, AS TROUGHING ALONG 170W/NEAR THE ALEUTIANS LEADS TO ANAMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE NEAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA --EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO ALASKA -- AND TROUGHING FARTHERDOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST
Here was the 500mb heights this afternoon showing the wavelengths. First, you can see what that ULL is doing in the GOA. Second you can see why we're warming up. (southwest flow). That poor SouthEast ridge down there sitting quietly too weak to make an effect on us recently but Florida is loving it.
These positions shift back and forth obviously but more important that expand and contract. Which means... that blue trough you see in the plains right now will be much wider next week and so me and you should be in the NorthWest type flow again with troughiness.
The very northern reaches of California will a storm system pacing through. Looking like about an inch for Eureka tonight and tomorrow. NWS says a cold front is passing through. Ridge is strong enough to deflect any storm approaching further south, almost nothing for San Francisco. So far the rainy season, San Francisco has gotten 2.1" of rain. Normal is 9".
Flood Advisory issued! Heavy rain, warmer temps, melting snow hv produced standing water. Temps still rising. Highs topped 32 1st time since Dec 29. Temps are moving in on 40-deg in the city and southern suburbs.
The rain's eating away at our snow cover. 11" was on the ground at Midway yesterday. That's dropped to 7" this evening.
Area rainfalls thru 5:45pm: 1.04" Hebron IN; 0.90 Minooka; 0.89 Flossmoor; 0.78 Clarendon Hills; 0.81 Hillside;0.77 Lemont; 0.70 Tinley Park.
Chi's in midst of 3rd snowiest season of pst 129 yrs. 10 snowiest seasons on rec here by this date went on to produce another 34.5" of snow.
They've issued an avalanche watch. The main highway crosses 3 large avalanche paths, so the department of transportation has issued a notice that the road may need to be closed at any time, and several times, for avalanche mitigation during the next few days.
They've issued an avalanche watch. The main highway crosses 3 large avalanche paths, so the department of transportation has issued a notice that the road may need to be closed at any time, and several times, for avalanche mitigation during the next few days.
I was walking my dog today and saw that alert and was going to post here. Keep us posted. Hopefully doesn't affect your travel.
Yes, even I have tropical plants. And they are doing so well inside.
Can you spot the big lemon? I got Grapefruit, key lime, and my favorite, Banana plant. These are all cold hardy for this area (except the lemon tree) but since the others are still young I brought them in this year. Next year I'll plant them in the ground and just cover them before winter.
5 degrees.... then not even 4 days later - thunderstorms. Isn't that just lovely.
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