San Antonio Weather Thread (Bowie, Anthony: repel, new roof, parent)

[rd2007]

it didn't work, though
Would've been nice to have some after I mowec my lawn too. So is it really getting into the 30's tonight? It's pretty cloudy out there still.. and my Weatherbug (SeaWorld) just made it up to 60. What a great day for April 6th in SA

[AnthonySA]

Checking the computer models... we may get our next storm this weekend. Given the setup, severe storms may be possible.. so I'll update y'all as it gets closer.

[AnthonySA]

Morning all. Checked all the models and here goes a slightly more detailed forecast:


Today (Wednesday)
Light southerly winds will help bring in Gulf moisture and prevent overnight lows as cold as they have been the past couple of mornings. Expect highs to reach the mid 80s under partly cloudy skies.

Thursday
A dry line should move through fairly early in the afternoon, but timing is still now down yet. This will play an important factor in determining our afternoon high. The earlier it moves through, the hotter it will get. Right now we are looking at highs approaching the low 90s in San Antonio, and triple digit temperatures near the border. An isolated storm may develop along and ahead of the dry line; and whichever storm does form may be strong. The best odds of seeing rain will be east of the I-35 corridor.

Good Friday
Slightly cooler with a northerly wind from a cold front moving through the region will usher drier continental air across South-Central Texas. Highs should remain warm in the lower to mid 80s due to clear skies throughout the afternoon.

Easter Weekend
The front will retreat northward as another upper level low approaches North Texas. Atmospheric dynamics appear strong enough based on current model data to support a severe weather event this weekend, especially north of I-10. However, any fluctuation in track and we're included in the threat for strong to severe storms. Right now the best timing for storms in our area appears to be overnight Saturday into Sunday in the form of a squall line. I won't be able to pinpoint the strength of the event until we get much closer, but it does look interesting and I'll keep you all posted on updates.

[scuba steve]

Send rain, plz. Seriously - I have yet to see it here (every time it's rained in the past [has it?] it's been while i'm back in the PNW).

[AnthonySA]

It's looking more and more like your wish may come true this weekend. I hope the trend in the models continue as far as rainfall goes, but not on the severe threat that is also increasing.

Based on what I gather from the models, and I will not go into further detail unless requested, but the best timing for seeing storms will be sometime overnight Saturday or early Easter morning. The main event looks like it'll be a squall line, but we could get a couple of rounds of storms beforehand that could contain isolated supercells. Again, as we get closer to the weekend and more models come within range of forecasting the storms, the more accurate we can pinpoint this system.

This also is, of course, highly dependent on the track and strength which could also change within the next couple of days.

Stay tuned.

[satbah7]

I always thought that since we haven't had rain for so long that when it did it would be bad like hail and wind(tornados).

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by satbah7

I always thought that since we haven't had rain for so long that when it did it would be bad like hail and wind(tornados).

Probably so. It is also spring, which is severe weather season.

The latest computer models came out, and while there is some conflicting data between them, they are all in agreement that we should see some thunderstorms this weekend. The 00z NAM clobbers the eastern 2/3s of the state with strong to severe thunderstorms, potentially igniting a significant outbreak. Meanwhile the 00z GFS is less extreme, but still leaving the door open for severe storms here.

At this time, the best threat for storms for South Central Texas will be Saturday Night through Easter morning with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Further north and east near Waco, DFW, and Tyler, there is an increasing threat for tornadoes.

There's a lot of room for fluctuation between now and then, so I'll update you all several times a day until the event passes.

[rd2007]

my weatherbug now says thunderstorms today. what's up with that? and weather.com has a high of 97! I definitely did not request that

[scuba steve]

I wouldn't mind hail at my place... the roof needs replacement within the next 2 or 3 years, and the cars live indoors so they're safe.

edit: today looks hot. on my drive to work the temp never fell below 18 this morning. might have to turn on the a/c today

[rd2007]

I just got a brand new homeowners policy and I'm really not in the mood to test it out just quite yet. Only rain for my area please.