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"...We know from Putin's own writings, and from various biographers like Philip Short, that the intermediate cause was a refusal to see Ukraine as a legitimate state.
Putin lamented the breakup of the Soviet Union, which he had served as a KGB officer, and, owing to Ukraine and Russia's close cultural affinities, he considered Ukraine a phony state. Moreover, Ukraine had been ungrateful, offending Russia with its 2014 Maidan uprising, which removed a pro-Russian government, and its deepening of trade relations with the European Union.
Putin wants to restore what he calls the "Russian world," and, as he has approached the age of 70, he has been thinking about his legacy. Earlier leaders, like Peter the Great, had expanded Russian power in their own time. Given the weakness of the Western sanctions that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Putin seems to have asked himself: Why not go further?
The prospect of NATO enlargement was a lesser intermediate cause. While the West did create a NATO-Russia Council through which Russian military officers could attend some NATO meetings, Russia expected more from the relationship...."
Many years have passed since your high school exchange. MAD used to be true, but no longer. The only thing that is assured now is the destruction of Russia should they use nuclear weapons.
Gen Ben Hodges, former commander of European forces, has pointed out it would not be necessary for the US to use nuclear weapons. Today, thanks to stealth technology and high precision missiles, Russia could be taken down in a matter of days. There would be no "nuclear exchange" even if there were a nuclear attack.
Russia knows all this. They have not tested a nuclear device for over 30 years, and, as we are seeing, have not maintained their military equipment in just as long. With a shelf life of 25 years, Russia nuclear count is a meaningless as their old tank count, which reported 10,000 tanks.
They may fire off a nuke. It might work, too. But Russia's days of having a viable military could then be counted on your fingers.
No, Rambo, it would be over for almost everybody much more quickly than that
P.S. Soviet union's last test was in 1990 ... and the US' was in 1992. So what's your point? Lol.
Moratoria on nuclear testing
In 1990, the Soviet Union proposed a moratorium on nuclear testing that was agreed to by the United Kingdom and the United States. This created an opportunity to move ahead for those advocates who, for decades, had promoted a comprehensive ban on all nuclear testing.
The Soviet Union’s last nuclear test took place on 24 October 1990; the United Kingdom’s on 26 November 1991 and the United States’ on 23 September 1992. France and China conducted their last tests in January and July 1996 respectively, before signing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. (For the status of signature and ratification of the Treaty today, please click here). France closed and dismantled all its nuclear test sites in the 1990s — the only nuclear weapon State to date that has done so.
Many years have passed since your high school exchange. MAD used to be true, but no longer. The only thing that is assured now is the destruction of Russia should they use nuclear weapons.
Gen Ben Hodges, former commander of European forces, has pointed out it would not be necessary for the US to use nuclear weapons. Today, thanks to stealth technology and high precision missiles, Russia could be taken down in a matter of days. There would be no "nuclear exchange" even if there were a nuclear attack.
Russia knows all this. They have not tested a nuclear device for over 30 years, and, as we are seeing, have not maintained their military equipment in just as long. With a shelf life of 25 years, Russia nuclear count is a meaningless as their old tank count, which reported 10,000 tanks.
They may fire off a nuke. It might work, too. But Russia's days of having a viable military could then be counted on your fingers.
That's possible. It's also possible that nukes are the one thing they are maintaining well. It's not a 100% certainty how it would go and the stakes are so high - literally the fate of humanity - that it's best to not ever have to find out.
When you look at rocket reliability even with the best maintenance, you have to think less than half and maybe much less of them will work as designed. But Russia has probably baked that into the plan which is why they have so many. They may only expect 1 in 4 to work. If you have 200 rockets coming at you, even 90% of them failing or getting knocked out is not a success.
Putin wants to restore what he calls the "Russian world," and, as he has approached the age of 70, he has been thinking about his legacy.
Here's hoping he fully, completely realizes that his leadership has weakened and humiliated Russia - before he joins Stalin in some particularly unpleasant netherworld.
Honestly I'm surprised there hasn't been an attempted coup yet. I'm surprised the military that's fighting hasn't turned around and pointed their guns at Moscow. I guess hope springs eternal.
Honestly I'm surprised there hasn't been an attempted coup yet. I'm surprised the military that's fighting hasn't turned around and pointed their guns at Moscow. I guess hope springs eternal.
Things will have to get a lot worse for Russia before that happens.
There have not been enough body bags shipped home.
Things will have to get a lot worse for Russia before that happens.
There have not been enough body bags shipped home.
After 7-8 months with 50,000 soldiers killed or wounded (assuming low side) in a 'special military operation' doesn't ire people... And now throwing old dogs into what's left of their ranks? Estimates of 700K Russians running for the exits?
Honestly I'm surprised there hasn't been an attempted coup yet. I'm surprised the military that's fighting hasn't turned around and pointed their guns at Moscow. I guess hope springs eternal.
I think a break up of the country is more likely. Putin has not treated the various ethnic groups well.
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