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Military lines can collapse in quick succession especially when supply lines are being squeezed, morale is low, and those lines are being manned by untrained troops. I mean it can go down like a big sinkhole.
Tagging on this. Things are wild in Kherson right now. The Russian milbloggers are freaking out. This guy accurately predicted what would happen to the Russian military in Kyiv during the first days of the war. Here he is now
A much bigger Russian collapse will unfold in the coming days.
Once these things get set in motion you can quickly get past a point of no return. Need more data but it appears the Russian lines are collapsing in Ukraine.
This campaign assessment special edition focuses on dramatic changes in the Russian information space following the Russian defeat around Lyman and in Kharkiv Oblast and amid the failures of Russia’s partial mobilization. Ukrainian forces made continued gains around Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, and have broken through Russian defensive positions in northeastern Kherson Oblast. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow when more confirmation is available.
Why is Russia acknowledging some of these Eastern Ukraine advances? What's the strategy there since russia never does that and always makes up some lies on that topic?
Why is Russia acknowledging some of these Eastern Ukraine advances? What's the strategy there since russia never does that and always makes up some lies on that topic?
The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control.
Quote:
The current onslaught of criticism and reporting of operational military details by the Kremlin’s propagandists has come to resemble the milblogger discourse over this past week. The Kremlin narrative had focused on general statements of progress and avoided detailed discussions of current military operations. The Kremlin had never openly recognized a major failure in the war prior to its devastating loss in Kharkiv Oblast, which prompted the partial reserve mobilization.[6]
The Russian MoD has consistently focused on exaggerating Russian success in Ukraine with vague optimistic statements while omitting presentations of specific details of the military campaign. The daily Russian MoD briefing has claimed to capture the same villages more than once as ISW and independent investigators have observed, and the Russian MoD rarely releases photographic evidence confirming claims of Russian advances. [7]
The Russian MoD has sought to impose this kind of narrative on the milbloggers as well. Advisor to the Russian Defense Minister Andrey Ilnitsky called on Russian journalists and milbloggers on May 26 to refrain from presenting detailed coverage of the war and to avoid publishing negative information that could help the West infiltrate the Russian information space and win the “hybrid war.”[8]
The milbloggers largely disregarded the MoD’s directives, and Putin seemed to support them in this disobedience, rewarding them with a lengthy personal meeting on June 17.[9] Most milbloggers have continued to report Russian battlefield setbacks and to criticize failures in the partial mobilization, often in strident tones. Putin has not apparently punished any major milbloggers for their outspokenness or allowed others to punish them. He has, however, kept their critiques off of the mainstream Russian airwaves. Kremlin mouthpieces on federally-owned TV channels had continued to puppet the MoD and Kremlin lines for the most part—until the partial mobilization.
Tagging on this. Things are wild in Kherson right now. The Russian milbloggers are freaking out. This guy accurately predicted what would happen to the Russian military in Kyiv during the first days of the war. Here he is now
Once these things get set in motion you can quickly get past a point of no return. Need more data but it appears the Russian lines are collapsing in Ukraine.
According to some posters this is because Russia is just nice and doesn't want to try too hard.
Putin could wipe out Ukraine in 2 days without nuclear weapons if he wanted to ...
I disagree.
The Russian government and it's military are totally corrupt.
Everyone is (or was until now) so corrupt that they have been skimming off the military budget and enriching themselves. So much so that they have rendered their own army helpless. They have been poorly equipped and understaffed for many years. People at the top managed to get kickbacks, and vendors were short-shipping. Clerks were falsifying records and warehousemen were selling materials out the back docks.
The troops going in on the first day had been deeply immersed in this culture of corruption. Shamefully when they discovered they had more than enough diesel fuel for their training exercises (which were wrapping up), the soldiers who had the opportunity were selling it.
They had no idea that they would be needing the fuel in the planned attack (information which was withheld from them). They reverted to type and stole the fuel at the first opportunity.
It is no secret that many of the older tanks in storage had been stripped of copper wire which was sold off by the thieves. Much of the equipment so stored has been reduced to so much scrap.
Now some of the best formations of the pre-war Russian army have been shot to pieces. If the newer soldiers are not well trained and better equipped they will be torn apart.
What Putin wants to do is up for debate, but I think that he wants to crush Ukraine and replace it's population with new settlers from Russia. He doesn't give a damn about the people living there. There are reports that Ukrainians have been exiled into eastern Russia.
He has not been able to fully accomplish this goal of displacing or killing Ukrainians and substituting Russian colonists, but not for lack of trying.
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