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Goldman said on Tuesday it expected European wholesale natural gas prices to fall from about €215 (£186) a megawatt hour to below €100 a MWh by the end of the first quarter of next year, assuming typical winter weather conditions. That is well below the €213 previously predicted.
Quote:
Goldman’s analysts said they expected storage facilities to be 90% full on average by the end of October
As I expected, no mobilization in Russia. They don't want to risk backlash from the families of the boys in the affluent cities of St. Petersburg and Moscow. Most of the Russian conscripts in Ukraine are from more rural and poorer areas.
Haha. How long do you think a war between Russia and NATO would last?
My guess would be 12 hours. About 8 hours for a tank convoy to drive from Latvia to Moscow. Another 4 hours to locate strategic government buildings, and overcome whatever pathetic resistance might be offered.
If I was planning it, I would plan to start the invasion at midnight with the goal of having a NATO command set up inside the Kremlin by noon that day.
US logistics is good but not that good. Too much stuff to move. The air campaign would be faster and withering to the Russians.
Russia is a failed alcoholic petro state. WITH NUKES. Nobody really wants to take over Russia. Too hard to hold and full of dysfunctional alcoholics. The upside of taking them over is not as big as the downside. Except maybe for China in the far East.
Many military correspondents are directly related to the military department, and are largely dependent on it. Now there is such a situation that some decisions are required, and one of them is mobilization. But to come to the president with this proposal directly is to sign in impotence, and therefore the message is dispersed through social networks so that they notice "where necessary" and make a decision themselves. The tactics are clear.
I would like to reproach myself with inconsistency: on the one hand, I am dejected by the results of this stage of the war (I knew that we would stop, I didn’t even dream of moving back), on the other, I am against general mobilization. How then to turn the tide of events?
Let's do it again. The reason for what is happening in the first place is not the lack of people, but their careless use - that is, the organization of the process. If this approach is maintained, the shortage will be constant, no matter how much you mobilize the people, and Russia will be overwhelmed by a wave of funerals in the absence of the desired result, which will lead to a serious crisis. The shortage is just formed by a simplified approach, and to continue to cultivate it is just to grind our resource in the meat grinder of war. I'm sorry that like thinking people write rash words.
Mobilization of the economy, society, the formation of a people's militia from volunteers, partial mobilization of specialists in high school specialties - YES! Combat units need to be filled with those who served in them earlier and have qualifications ... I am ready to return to my 331st parachute regiment - I was a good foreman of the company during the deadline ... But just announce a general mobilization by the hands of the military - things will start that you never dreamed of. This will be a powerful blow to the country, which it will not withstand.
Vladlen Tatarsky, a smart guy, writes: without bulletproof vests and helmets, with an AK-47 - I don’t care - but you give mobilization. What's next? To whom will you give them? I have fewer people than I would like - but I experience the main difficulty not in this, but in the fact that for hours I cannot find the positions of the enemy from which he is hitting us - yesterday two light three hundredths. I can’t, because there are no means of artillery reconnaissance. I can't because their electronic warfare won't let me fly. And if I suddenly can, then I don’t have enough range to cover them, or I don’t have enough BC ... I can’t calculate and screw them at the stage of formation of battle formations before deploying to the attack, when they are crowded and represent a good target - all for the same reasons . How will additional infantry help me here? So the approach must be comprehensive, and this process is complex and requires a change in the type of thinking.
And also remember that the main scourge of the military department, about which I wrote more than once, is an attempt to create complete secrecy, that is, lack of control: everything that happens a mile away remains a mile away, and we will only give up what is not disturb anyone's sleep. Therefore, military officers are not allowed into positions, and if they are, then a person with a camera walks behind them and takes pictures so that the military commander does not say anything superfluous ... And not because the enemy will see it - the enemy is aware of us better than ours - but because, that the first leader will see it.
We were spanked: Or maybe it should be, maybe we needed it?
Because today there are two Russias. One is fighting for the right to live, and the second, as if nothing had happened, is celebrating, for example, Moscow Day with fireworks on the day Izyum was abandoned.
No, I am not (at this stage) calling for what happened in 1941. In the current realities, this is impossible, unnecessary and even harmful. But changes are needed here too. And what I see on the streets of Moscow is wrong. A festive salute in honor of Moscow, on the day of the hardest battles and the surrender of Izyum, this is already clearly too much.
But it's also a marker. A marker of the fact that even in the leadership of Russia of a very high rank there is no complete understanding and acceptance of the fact that there is a war going on, that everything is not going according to plan, and if nothing is changed, then everything will go according to Washington's plan. That is, we have not yet made that internal turning point that the leadership of the USSR made on itself between August 10 and 13, 1941, when it realized that the war had gone against all plans, and it was no longer about temporary difficulties, but about saving the country .
As a result, by the spring campaign (we won’t have time before), we simply have to carry out serious reforms in the army and rear (primarily MANAGEMENT), and as a result, we should have a completely different army and rear, ready to continue waging war until Victory (and there is no other option). And most importantly, the ATTITUDE towards war in society must change.
And yet, yes, it's time to get rid of the abbreviation CBO. If this is a war for the right of the country's existence, then it should be called accordingly. Moreover, during the Izyum operation, it became clear to the last idiot who is really interested in politics and war that we are fighting not with Ukraine, but with NATO and for the right to live on our own land.
First off, I'd like to commend you for facing a reality however unpleasant.
I'd like to dust off a previous statement I made a while back about how a strong leader is great for a country until they start making poor decisions and then there is no means to change course which results is ruin.
As such, I have concerns about how Russia might change course at this juncture, critics of Putin have not fared well over the years but in general he made good decisions and so the population was quite supportive of him as he consolidated more power.
But what now if his decision making is not as good as it once was...but he is unwilling to relenquish any of his power?
US logistics is good but not that good. Too much stuff to move. The air campaign would be faster and withering to the Russians.
Russia is a failed alcoholic petro state. WITH NUKES. Nobody really wants to take over Russia. Too hard to hold and full of dysfunctional alcoholics. The upside of taking them over is not as big as the downside. Except maybe for China in the far East.
Well of course you would need an air campaign, to protect the tank convoy. Otherwise you would end up with a situation like happened to the Russians when they tried to take Kyiv.
Once NATO gets control of the Kremlin, NATO has control of Russia's nukes. But Russia isn't going to use nukes. That would be suicide.
Haha. How long do you think a war between Russia and NATO would last?
My guess would be 12 hours. About 8 hours for a tank convoy to drive from Latvia to Moscow. Another 4 hours to locate strategic government buildings, and overcome whatever pathetic resistance might be offered.
If I was planning it, I would plan to start the invasion at midnight with the goal of having a NATO command set up inside the Kremlin by noon that day.
It’s all very exciting! But I’d expect things to slow down as Ukraine finishes mopping up around Kharkiv, while giving its units time to rest, refit, repair, and resupply. And then we see if Ukraine prioritizes Luhansk city, or shoots toward Melitopol. Or heck, maybe it gets back to Kherson and aims for Nova Kakhovka, cutting Crimea’s water supply and threatening Russians in Melitopol from two sides.
It's quite premature to anticipate further Ukrainian victories.There's still a huge amount of territory to recover, which would be quite a daunting task. I doubt it could be done, frankly. Russia's not going to just walk away.
Bear in mind, that for months, some experts in Russia have been saying, that the President has been holding back. The reason the effort has seemed feeble at times (but how feeble could it be, if they've managed to take almost the entire south of Ukraine?), is that Russia's been using completely green recruits to some extent, along with Chechens and other non-regular-army forces. I wouldn't laugh off the entire Russian effort just yet. They could have a surprise waiting in the wings.
There's also the point one poster raised recently, that in reality, Russia doesn't need to do anything. All they have to do is keep the Ukrainian side occupied until winter weather comes to Europe. Some of the supporters (Germany comes to mind) could fold in the face of winter weather. I don't see Germany making any preparations for that. Unless you consider mowing down Romania's forests for firewood to be part of winter survival strategy. A pretty pathetic and desperate attempt, if you ask me.
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