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I am very kindly asking some serious posters here to carefully read through this post. It is very informative and explains, in detail, what AFU have to go against and why 400 m advance is NOTHING, not a glorious victory.
Thanks. I read so many conflicting things, but good post.
I've heard a lot about Russian soldiers refusing to fight.
But now German Spiegel has interviewed German trained Ukrainian soldiers that are saying they don't want to fight and fake tank malfunctions and etc to avoid this offensive.
Also that Ukrainians are escaping out of the closed borders to avoid the fight as well.
Offensive, through the Kakhovka reservoir - prospects
Today, in the networks, many have begun to say in all seriousness that literally soon the enemy will cross the dried-up Kakhovka reservoir and powerfully strike at the rear of our units.
I already said live today that this is complete nonsense (in the "Great Game"). And now I will explain why.
To begin with, those maps that draw that the Kakhovka Sea has dried up, they lie. Here is a video of this very sea today. The "sea" has turned into a huge swamp.
In fact, the situation with offensive has now become much more complicated for the enemy. And if earlier it was possible to quickly cross the "sea" on a motor boat and drop off the DRG (diversion group), now this is practically impossible. And to transfer large military formations through this swamp is impossible from the word at all.
But that's not all. I want to explain to the "couch experts" who did not walk on such dried-up seas (I did) that even if it dries completely, it will be dangerous to walk along this crust for a couple of weeks even on foot (or it will be wet under the crust for a long time ). And it will be dangerous for armored vehicles (especially tanks) to drive on this crust for many more months (and even then, provided that there is no rain).
The only place where the situation with offensive will be simplified (and even then not by much) is the channel of the Dnieper downstream from the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station (in view of the fact that the discharge of water in the Dnieper hydroelectric station upstream from it was greatly reduced).
But even there there will be difficulties for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Create a crossing hundreds of meters long and prevent it from being bombed by enemy aircraft, which has complete air superiority .... well, this is planning at the level of the thesis - "you only have to hit the Russians and they will run." As they say, welcome, but don’t complain later and don’t say that the weather got in the way (https://t.me/yurasumy/9400).
And to ensure a powerful offensive, several such crossings must be created at once. Otherwise, everything will turn into complete destruction for the group that crossed over, and very quickly.
https://t.me/yurasumy/9401
Assessment done by a battle commander, officer in reserve, Yuri Podoliaka. Man with experience and first hand knowledge of how such things work.
Asia Political Defense were saying that they have heard both that it is like quick sand and impossible to cross and that it has dried hard and cross able. They wondered if since it is several miles long, both are possibly true depending on where you are.
I saw that the Wagner group executed 2, I believe former convicts, for surrendering or attempting to surrender to Ukraine. They killed them by sledgehammer to the head against a brick wall.
Sociopaths.
So 2 Russian POW were freed and then killed by these Wagner thugs? Russia just has an unbelievably messed up mentality where surrender during a battle you can’t win gets you killed by people who are supposed to be on your side. Just another sign Russia is losing the war, and these terrorists in the Wagner group are getting desperate for more victims
Stalin was widely loved by people. You have no idea. When he was killed, entire country was mourning. All you know, is propaganda upon propaganda. And I talked to those, who grew up with him at the country helm and I had their testimonies. So, please....
The reason is because Soviet union defeated Nazi Germany with him at the helm. But...
Except, there are tons of interviews from these people explaining their situation.
Exactly. And not a single interview in Western media taken from them when they succeed, survive and return home free men with decent money and military awards.
Now why is that, any idea?
Because I see both kinds of interviews. You - don't.
You see only the ones propaganda allows you to see.
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Some of them were executed on the front line for trying to flee.
You mean in the same manner as Azov and other Ukrainian Nationalist battalions are acting?
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One had his head smashed in with a sledge hammer. His journey was described quite well, from prison to front line, to having his head tied down with a rope and smashed in. He didn't realize he was going to be sent on a journey that he had little hope of surviving. Only that he could get a free get out of jail card if he signed on the dotted line, while sitting in a cold prison cell.
Was his journey "described quite well" from regular life to prison? Yes/no?
And if yes, when he decided to get out of prison ( and Russia all together,) why did he think using Wagner for it was a good idea?
What made him think so, particularly after deserting from his unit and badmouthing Wagner, after it gave him a chance for decent life?
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Putin treats these men like criminals to be abused and ground to a pulp because that's what most of them are. They are not professional soldiers. They exist to serve as cannon fodder to wear away at Ukraine's army and deplete their munitions, supplies, equipment, etc. Then the professionals will be sent in if there is an escalation, or it becomes obvious that Ukraine cannot defend itself any longer. There are more professional soldiers now than before I would assume, but I don't think they make up the majority yet. Or perhaps the soldiers being sent out are just poorly trained.
Putin ( or rather MoD) - yes, because now they recruit these people themselves.
But not Wagner. As I've said - you hear only what propaganda allows you to hear.
But I listened to interviews with them when they were still allowed to join Wagner, and they explained what a grueling task it was, to get ready for the battlefield, and how the company was training them, in order to give a fair chance for survival.
But even this is not a point.
The point is, since Western propaganda loves to present this kind of stories, you get a wrong impression, that's that's who overwhelmingly fight on Russian side.
So 2 Russian POW were freed and then killed by these Wagner thugs? Russia just has an unbelievably messed up mentality where surrender during a battle you can’t win gets you killed by people who are supposed to be on your side. Just another sign Russia is losing the war, and these terrorists in the Wagner group are getting desperate for more victims
Here are some articles about their sociopath ways with sledgehammers including in Syria.
Yet you just said, "No, they are fighting for the very right of Zelensky government to exist." That would mean, at least according in your opinion, that the current government would be gone. So sounds like there is at least some sort of goal.
It seems to me ( from what I observe so far) is that Putin's wish ( and what's referred to as "Party of peace" in his government - the oligarchs and the banking sector,) would be to keep the current Ukrainian government in place, yet to sign all kinds of agreements with it.
But the "party of war" in Russia sees things differently.
And this would be big part of the Russian military on the ground.
Russia has done a great job so far of stopping the Ukrainian offensive.
However, with the dam blown up, that Ukraine had to have done based on all of the circumstances, the river is narrow enough that Ukraine may be able to easily cross and Russia wouldn't have the same defensive lines in that area as elsewhere.
It's possible that the dry river bed won't be able to support heavy vehicles, but if I were Russia, I'd be very concerned about that dam being blown up extending the lines they'd have to defend dramatically.
I saw that "Defense Politics Asia" was worried that NATO would declare a no fly zone to help the failing Ukrainian counter offensive which could lead to WW3.
All are good observations.
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