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1. That "huge period of peace since WW2" is just pure propaganda. NATO countries completely memory-holed the Balkans war in the 1990s and NATO bombing Serbia.
No, its not. Those wars were small compared to conflicts pre 1946. The whole world is has seen less conflict, the western world much more so.
Here a charts of deaths per world capita since the 1400's:
Neither China nor Russia are a military threat to the US. Russia for obvious reasons, China for different reasons.
Ukraine is able to use its entire military to defend itself. Russia cannot use much of its military because it has borders with 14 countries and most of them do not like Russia. In addition Russia maintains its military in Belarus, 2 disputed sections of Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Syria, and Tajikistan. That's not even counting the military presence it must maintain in its far East areas, and the naval forces which are locked out of The Black Sea and cannot participate.
So talk about the size of Russian military vs Ukraine military is pretty much meaningless. If Russia could win this war they would have. Their best bet is to run out the clock and see if Ukraine folds.
There are also Russian Wagner PMCs currently fighting in like 5 separate conflicts in Africa.
My response was to the claim of peace in Europe since WW2. Again, its a completely bogus claim.
The Balkan wars had huge casualties as % of population (bigger than current Ukrainian war), and included flat out genocide.
It really took time for "the West" to gear up for this, mentally. Remember, that in the first days of the invasion, Western Europe couldn't believe it was happening. It came as a complete shock that a war could happen in their midst, after such a long period of peace after WWII. They didn't believe the US briefings during the buildup of tanks at the border, that Russia was going to invade. Some dithering resulted, when the worst, the unthinkable, came to pass.
And then it became a question of how much money to spend, what types of arms to send, how far to get involved, fears of WWIII to overcome, and so on. Russia had the psychological advantage in that regard. They caught everyone (but the US) by surprise.
That’s not true at all. This conflict dates back to 2014, and even before that, and revolves around several matters that European leaders were well aware of. No surprises whatsoever.
First, the Ukrainian “color revolution” referred to as Maiden, was orchestrated by the CIA and US State Department in 2014, conducted out of the US Embassy in Ukraine. This led to the overthrow of Ukraine’s government, and the installation of a pro-west, anti-Russian puppet regime in Kiev. What followed was a series of anti-Russian measures initiated by the new Regime, which alienated the substantially ethnic Russian population in the Donbas region of Ukraine, and a direct use of military force against them, by the Ukrainian government, which resulted in the formation of defensive militias, notably the DPR and LPR.
A series of diplomatic measures were engaged to end this conflict, known as the Minsk and Minsk II accords, with members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), comprising diplomats from Germany and France to serve as mediators between Ukrainian and Russian diplomatic officials. The agreements signed were supposed to end this conflict, yet Ukraine continued to use military force to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in the Donbas, in violation of those agreements. Later, it was admitted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Minsk agreements were simply a diversionary tactic to provide Ukraine time to strengthen its military capacity and readiness to be an effective counter force to any Russian military action the Russians might engage in the Donbas region, in response to Ukraine’s continued aggression against these ethnic Russian civilians.
So, no … there is no big surprises going on here. The only surprise was how long it took for Russia to realize that Ukraine had no intention of allowing these people to self govern, as they had agreed to do, under the Minsk agreements.
The reality is, they knew full well that Russian military action was a strong possibility, and only a matter of “when”, not “if”, Russia would eventually take action. This fact is proven by Merkel’s own admission that the Minsk agreements were only a ploy to buy time for Ukraine to build up its military, which Ukraine never intended to honor.
The truth is, Russia was lied to and double crossed at every turn. Every agreement Ukraine made with Russia was broken by Ukraine, and this ultimately led to Russia going in to stop the ethnic cleansing of ethnic Russians in the Donbas, and secure their ability to self govern without constantly being under attack by Ukrainian forces.
Furthermore, what was earlier touted as Russian military weakness-incompetence in the early months of the conflict, and the source of all of the propaganda about how Ukraine was handedly defeating the Russians, was in fact Russia doing exactly what they said they were trying to do, which was to force Ukraine to cease its assault on the peoples of the Donbas, while avoiding as much as possible, harm to Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in the process.
The Russians have now reached the inescapable conclusion that such a measured approach is no longer a viable strategy, and have taken off the velvet gloves, and are now conducting a war, rather than an intervention. And the Russians are now systematically decapitating the Ukrainian military and its ability to continue fighting.
The only possible outcomes at this point are either Ukraine agrees to a negotiated end to the war without conditions, or Ukraine will ultimately cease to exist as a nation.
Last edited by GuyNTexas; 02-06-2023 at 01:38 PM..
Let it go. Its been brought up 897798 times already.
There are two anti Ukraine camps. 1 brings up and pretty much sticks to "Its not our fight." The other brings up Kremlin talking points. Look at post histories over multiple posts to figure out who belongs in which camp.
I don't see how Ukraine wins personally. To keep up 3-1 loss ratios needed (Russia is 3x population) you don't get many opportunities to go on offensives. Russia is decidedly less stupid and decidedly better at logistics now vs last year. I hope I am wrong. I am realistic however. The best we can do is when Russia does win is to isolate them as much as possible including tourism bans etc. Basically, let them supply India and China with oil to keep oil markets steady but ban the Russian animals out of US/UK/EU etc and make sure to keep tech bans in place. We cannot stop them but we can slow them down.
China is a much bigger threat now and in the future.
As some of us keep pointing out, having more people isn't sufficient to win. You have to have the resources and equipment and you have to be willing to spend those lives. And then keep spending those lives in a guerrilla war if you win. Russia simply cannot win this war. And I find it highly improbable they are able to even get back the territory they have lost the last 9 months. They don't have the material, logistics or trained forces to do so.
As some of us keep pointing out, having more people isn't sufficient to win. You have to have the resources and equipment and you have to be willing to spend those lives. And then keep spending those lives in a guerrilla war if you win. Russia simply cannot win this war. And I find it highly improbable they are able to even get back the territory they have lost the last 9 months. They don't have the material, logistics or trained forces to do so.
Read a bit about Russian strategy in attacks in Bakhmut area.
Seems they send a squad of 8 out with a bunch of ammunition. When they get shot at, the artillery aims at the Ukrainians who shot at them. (Hence the reason for shoot and scoot.)
Meanwhile, the first 8 are dead or mostly dead, then the second squad of 8 is sent out to get the ammunition the first group was carrying.
Delusional. That’s what you are, and 100% guaranteed, you will disappear in a few short weeks, when the propaganda media is forced to slowly ween the public off the lies, and acknowledge reality.
Ukraine not only cannot win, they are on the verge of not surviving as a country. Their combat ready forces have been largely eliminated, and these offers of military hardware is a joke. A dozen tanks, coming later this year? There will not be a Ukrainian military left by later this year. And the country itself will only survive to the extent that Russia allows it.
Glad to see you're still here, because it appears that as has been the case for most of the duration of this conflict, the C-D posters who write here are the ones who think Russia is going to lose/has lost, that Ukraine is going to win/can win, that the Ukrainians held/hold the higher moral ground, that Russia started this out of nowhere with nothing but evil and imperialistic ambitions, that Russia's military is weak and inept, and a host of other deceptions and lies.
It's truly mind-boggling. From the claims of Russian "collusion" after Trump defeated Hillary (thankfully) fair and square to those despicable accusations of rape against Brett Kavanaugh, to the belief that Covid-19 is actually that dangerous when it's a condition that mostly kills the elderly (and that it has a 99.7% survival rate for the non-elderly), that the vaccine is "safe and effective" (when Pfizer admitted it was never tested for inoculation, and Fauci has now said the vaccine doesn't protect "overly well"), the gullibility and ignorance of the general public, including some very arrogant posters here on this thread and in others, is a spectacle to behold - and not a pleasant one.
They actually think Russia is going to lose this war. I'd be surprised if Russia doesn't end up with complete and permanent control of all the real estate east of the Dnieper River. I mean, how and when will Ukraine get Russia out of the eastern areas and of Crimea?
That’s not true at all. This conflict dates back to 2014, and even before that, and revolves around several matters that European leaders were well aware of. No surprises whatsoever.
First, the Ukrainian “color revolution” referred to as Maiden, was orchestrated by the CIA and US State Department in 2014, conducted out of the US Embassy in Ukraine. This led to the overthrow of Ukraine’s government, and the installation of a pro-west, anti-Russian puppet regime in Kiev. What followed was a series of anti-Russian measures initiated by the new Regime, which alienated the substantially ethnic Russian population in the Donbas region of Ukraine, and a direct use of military force against them, by the Ukrainian government, which resulted in the formation of defensive militias, notably the DPR and LPR.
A series of diplomatic measures were engaged to end this conflict, known as the Minsk and Minsk II accords, with members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), comprising diplomats from Germany and France to serve as mediators between Ukrainian and Russian diplomatic officials. The agreements signed were supposed to end this conflict, yet Ukraine continued to use military force to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in the Donbas, in violation of those agreements. Later, it was admitted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Minsk agreements were simply a diversionary tactic to provide Ukraine time to strengthen its military capacity and readiness to be an effective counter force to any Russian military action the Russians might engage in the Donbas region, in response to Ukraine’s continued aggression against these ethnic Russian civilians.
So, no … there is no big surprises going on here. The only surprise was how long it took for Russia to realize that Ukraine had no intention of allowing these people to self govern, as they had agreed to do, under the Minsk agreements.
The reality is, they knew full well that Russian military action was a strong possibility, and only a matter of “when”, not “if”, Russia would eventually take action. This fact is proven by Merkel’s own admission that the Minsk agreements were only a ploy to buy time for Ukraine to build up its military, which Ukraine never intended to honor.
The truth is, Russia was lied to and double crossed at every turn. Every agreement Ukraine made with Russia was broken by Ukraine, and this ultimately led to Russia going in to stop the ethnic cleansing of ethnic Russians in the Donbas, and secure their ability to self govern without constantly being under attack by Ukrainian forces.
Furthermore, what was earlier touted as Russian military weakness-incompetence in the early months of the conflict, and the source of all of the propaganda about how Ukraine was handedly defeating the Russians, was in fact Russia doing exactly what they said they were trying to do, which was to force Ukraine to cease its assault on the peoples of the Donbas, while avoiding as much as possible, harm to Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in the process.
The Russians have now reached the inescapable conclusion that such a measured approach is no longer a viable strategy, and have taken off the velvet gloves, and are now conducting a war, rather than an intervention. And the Russians are now systematically decapitating the Ukrainian military and its ability to continue fighting.
The only possible outcomes at this point are either Ukraine agrees to a negotiated end to the war without conditions, or Ukraine will ultimately cease to exist as a nation.
Anyone on this website who wants to know what's happening should keep this post in their personal files as a reference, for it is a well-written summary of the facts.
Go back about 500 pages …. I told you people what the deal was, and what I said back then is being confirmed right now.
These ridiculous commitments for a few tanks is just a bunch of political claptrap, that will have zero effect on the war, which is already lost. Those tanks, if they even make it into combat operations will have a very short life. They will be reduced to smoldering piles of wreckage just like the rest of the former Ukrainian army that no longer exists .
Even the Ukrainian military commanders know this. Their number one guy has already said that he needs something like 500 tanks, a 1000 armored vehicles and the crew to operate and maintain them, at a minimum to put up an effective response. In other words, he needs someone to give him another army. He knows Ukraine is toast, and so do the Russians.
Wake up. Realize you’re being lied to.
New year, same ol' stuff: most posters here are deceived, think Russia is the bad guy, think Ukraine is fighting for democracy, think that freethinking posters who have a clue are "Russia apologists..."
New year, same ol' stuff: most posters here are deceived, think Russia is the bad guy, think Ukraine is fighting for democracy, think that freethinking posters who have a clue are "Russia apologists..."
So you do not think Russia is the bad guy? Just making sure.
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