Do you think China and/or Russia would invade the US in the aftermath of a new civil war ? (generation, Israeli)
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There's absolutely no need for the sort of arrogant tone your post seems to be conveying , but I appreciate your reply regardless .
P.S. No offense , but claiming to have bona fide military credentials on an essentially anonymous forum such as this means absolutely jack squat .
Can you at least appreciate that he does not expect you to take it at his word with a lengthy and detailed post?
I think he dispelled an all out conquest , but I think would be more plausible would be a China picking sides and supplying their alley in the civil was with some aim at being a puppeteer. That is exactly how the US has gone about it. But again ,would that go unnoticed? They may even decide to supply both sides to prolong the fighting.
Can you at least appreciate that he does not expect you to take it at his word with a lengthy and detailed post?
I think he dispelled an all out conquest , but I think would be more plausible would be a China picking sides and supplying their alley in the civil was with some aim at being a puppeteer. That is exactly how the US has gone about it. But again ,would that go unnoticed? They may even decide to supply both sides to prolong the fighting.
I most certainly appreciate every post which has a bit of substance , including his , what I don't appreciate is the arrogant writing style this fellow uses as well as his unsubstantiated claim of having planned combat operations in Panama and Iraq .
Furthermore the scope of this discussion has moved far beyond the scenario of a simple conventional invasion , a thing which he most certainly could have commented on as well , but I digress .
Last edited by Lionel Fauquier; 10-10-2020 at 06:28 AM..
Neither country has global force projection for anything longer than a few weeks. They do not have the ability to resupply as would be needed on a massive scale.
They would however back one side or the other financially, possibly with weapons and training as well.
Even with a civil war, the way things are split right now, they would have the US military to deal with...even if our military fractures to a degree I believe BOTH sides would still reject outsiders from interfering militarily.
It has been shown that a foreign country doesn't need to invade the U.S. physically to do a great deal of damage via social media, etc. Why would they invade? They can just keep doing what they've been doing - sowing the seeds of discontent and then watching as Americans become more polarized against each other. We do such a great job of sabotaging ourselves, after all.
Sad to see what is happening to the United States...
Neither China nor Russia has the sealift to move massive numbers of troops across the Pacific. China is developing a blue water navy, although that's probably not their goal - they seem to be more interested in established a security zone around their coast. The USSR had a blue water navy, but the money ran out, & their maintenance was too expensive.
Whether Russia could reconstitute all that is up in the air - it would still be enormously expensive, & the current world economy doesn't need Russia's main (only?) export - oil & nat/gas.
Neither China nor Russia has the sealift to move massive numbers of troops across the Pacific. China is developing a blue water navy, although that's probably not their goal - they seem to be more interested in established a security zone around their coast. The USSR had a blue water navy, but the money ran out, & their maintenance was too expensive.
Whether Russia could reconstitute all that is up in the air - it would still be enormously expensive, & the current world economy doesn't need Russia's main (only?) export - oil & nat/gas.
Even if they could revive it they don't have the equipment or manpower to protect the lanes.
Now that I think of it the scenario of China and Russia becoming patron states to a plethora of future American vassal states , may as well be brought up ...
I mean couldn't it be more likely that ( if things continue at their current pace ) we will see a plethora of de facto independent states ( reminiscent of petty fiefdoms ) in the US which will pay homage to Russia or China in a vassal state sort of way ?
Or is that also a very far flung sort of speculation ?
homage to Russia - What does Russia have that the US wants or needs? Europe needs their oil/nat gas - to feed their economies, warm homes, run industry. The US is exporting oil/natgas, I believe, & we're producing lots of both.
China is a manufacturing center - but their labor costs are being undercut by Bangladesh, for one. So China needs to go up the manufacturing ladder - to higher-nd finished goods. Bulk steel, cement, etc. won't do - there's not enough profit margin there. & China needs to import food - meat, cereals, oils - to feed all those laboring hands. China also needs all the energy they can lay hands on - to keep the production going. Those exports pay for everything China imports.
With that said. Will Russia and China invade America? I don't know. However with America gone and no longer a power and a threat. This gives China and Russia time to expand politically, economically and militarily in there spheres of influence. Russia for example can expand its domain deep into Central Europe, and in Central Asia and to some extent into the Far East. While China can expand into the Fareast and into the Pacific Southeast. Also with America gone, there will be a scramble to take over the 500 year old Atlantic trade system which was crafted by the Spanish, fell into British hands and now under American control.
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Russia is in a holding position. It's defensive, & Putin's desire for Russia to be taken seriously as a world power. But the USSR never was - they couldn't feed themselves, they couldn't compete economically with the West. They exported oil & count on their entire hard currency income from that source. & their tech & managerial base was shot through with corruption & mismanagement - because oil/natgas is a national resource; nothing flows to the benefit of the people who live there, except for the new Nomenklatura - Putin & his gang.
I'm sure Putin would love to expand & take up the space (geographical & ideological) that the USSR held. Those days are past, & the new Russia still can't compete in the world economy. Nor are they interested - as long as Russian state oil companies can expand by highway robbery (trumping up charges against Russian oil industry leaders who actually innovate & increase production - & then forcing fire sales to the state [& sometimes imposing fines on the victims, a nice touch that]) there isn't going to be any improvement in Russia's technique nor management - Why would anyone break their backs in order to be robbed? See Blowout : corrupted democracy, rogue state Russia, and the richest, most destructive industry on Earth / Rachel Maddow, c2019, Crown.
No, we have nukes. Of course if Biden and the Democrats win, I wouldn't be surprised if they unilaterally disarmed or surrendered the United States' nuclear weapons to China or Iran.
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No more than Japan did
